Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

[johnarb]

That was PRECISELY my point. How did you miss that?

Crypto (BTC) was supposed to be a hedge against inflation and central banks, but it failed massively to do so in real life. You're just repeating what I said like I didn't say it.

The point you seemed to miss was that crypto (BTC) wasn't supposed to crash. That was the narrative. It was to be a hedge against inflation and poor central bank policy, i.e., buy crypto to protect yourself from central banks printing away the value of your money.



I'm sure it was supposed to be a lot of things. Now we know more.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are people on EliteTrader who lost money in crypto because of you who are always bullish and un-critical towards Bitcoin.

You were arguing earlier about how poor people in the 3rd world needed crypto because of depreciation in their own local currencies and how Bitcoin would protect them against that.

Fact is that everyone who bought crypto this year whether that's in the 3rd world or wealthy individuals are facing a massive loss.

Blaming the FED won't change that simple and harsh fact.

And nobody should be surprised to see this as plenty of people have warned that this could happen.

In the short term, Bitcoin and crypto assets are correlated due to the players I mentioned

The blowups of FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, Genesis, et al, will be a good thing in the long run since they will be removing much of the correlation factors between TradFi and Bitcoin/crypto assets

Short term pain now, long term gains for Bitcoin and crypto assets investors, imho

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Not everyone in the world bought Bitcoin at a higher price than now

You want to blame me for people losing $ if they invested in Bitcoin because of my permabull posts?

Ok, I was bullish when I first posted in 2017 on ET and the price was less than $1,400, so anyone who listened to me would be up over 1000%

I was bullish in 2018 during the bear market and the price was below $4,000

I was bullish in 2019 when price was below $6,000

I was bullish in 2020 when price was below $7,000

But yea, I was also bullish in 2021 and 2022 when price was higher than now, but imho, it will be higher in the next bull market. This is a crypto winter, a bear market, enough said

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I noticed you gave up defending virtusa-is-a-liar... good

That piece of shit is a fucking pussy, notice how virtusa-is-a-liar runs away like a coward as soon as I post about virtusa-is-a-liar because virtusa-is-a-liar knows I expose the truth

2018 has not been kind to bitcoin, but my guess is that bitcoin will not go below $3,000 as there's too much interest from "big money". I think 2019 will be a bull market for bitcoin (and crypto assets).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billyb...lionaires-are-buying-up-bitcoin/#30c1165f208c

Far from the murky, impersonal world of online bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchanges, billionaires who want to buy bitcoin do it through an office in west London's upmarket Mayfair—and the relatively new service is becoming increasingly popular amongst the super rich with an interest in crypto.

The inflation rate will be cut in half (block reward for successfully mining a new block drops from 12.5 to 6.25 bitcoins), but the circulating supply is still over 18M bitcoins minus all the "lost" private keys.

In the past halvenings, bitcoin price didn't shoot up until after a couple of months...

 

[hilmy83]

Am I the only one who thinks these trade calls are pointless unless your money is on the line? Like seriously, great you were right. Did you make money? Let's see the account

But no, we don't share that shit cause it's taboo

 

[themickey]

virtusa-is-a-liar is a broke loser CTA that is why he cannot show proof of his successful trades

Anyone claiming virtusa-is-a-liar called the top in Oct-Nov 2021 are either disingenuous or too stupid to know that the Fed announced a tightening policy end of last year

Liquidity sucked out of all markets. 60/40 did not work this year, no shit Sherlock, no money printing. Stocks, bonds, real estate and Bitcoin and cryptos crashed

You don't believe me?

Look up the prices of TSLA, AMZN, NFLX and others Oct-Nov 2021

Yes, I had been thinking a while back that the top call was made by correlation off other instruments and not as a result of making a call by direct reference of bitcoin only.
But atm I can't be bothered checking.
It seems possible bitcoin is negatively correlated but not positively correlated to markets, eg, it will move in the direction of mkt bears but not mkt bulls.

 

[NoahA]

I also believe that @virtusa didn't make an actual call. If I felt as confident as he did about his calls, there would be a short trade there. Seriously, if you are right 80% of the time, you should be worth at least $100 million... But I doubt he is.

I would like to see him call the bottom in real time. If he thinks it's going to zero, then that's fine, but Bitcoin will reach a bottom at some point and then rally. If he doesn't nail the bottom, it will be bad for his track record

I'm also with @johnarb in saying that it's a miracle Bitcoin is at 16k given all these blowups. I believe deep down inside that an event will cause a sudden rise in the price, and these old price levels will never be seen again. I remember the chaos when the swiss franc depegged. I imagine an announcement of some type of peg to Bitcoin or something similar which starts with a spike and then a relentless rally.

Bitcoin moving to cold storage means it's more in the hands of true believers. With exchanges lending out so much Bitcoin, the price really has been suppressed. Maybe on the flip side, lots of fake trading by exchanges also juiced it up, but since it's a bearer asset that cannot be printed, fire works will happen when an event pushes everyone into self custody Bitcoin.

 

[Laissez Faire]

In the short term, Bitcoin and crypto assets are correlated due to the players I mentioned

The blowups of FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, Genesis, et al, will be a good thing in the long run since they will be removing much of the correlation factors between TradFi and Bitcoin/crypto assets

Short term pain now, long term gains for Bitcoin and crypto assets investors, imho

That's possible. It's also 100 % possible that Bitcoin and other cryptos will never get back to ATHs.

Nobody really knows.

Not everyone in the world bought Bitcoin at a higher price than now

You want to blame me for people losing $ if they invested in Bitcoin because of my permabull posts?

Ok, I was bullish when I first posted in 2017 on ET and the price was less than $1,400, so anyone who listened to me would be up over 1000%

I was bullish in 2018 during the bear market and the price was below $4,000

I was bullish in 2019 when price was below $6,000

I was bullish in 2020 when price was below $7,000

But yea, I was also bullish in 2021 and 2022 when price was higher than now, but imho, it will be higher in the next bull market. This is a crypto winter, a bear market, enough said

Well, seeing how you've been bullish all the time, you've lacked the timing aspect. With that perspective isn't it possible you simply was lucky and got in early? Considering how bad it went for everyone who bought in 2021/2022?

I'm not blaming you. I'm just saying it might be responsible to be a bit more cautious. I'm not sure I've seen you give recommendations, but you have no doubt been very bullish on BTC and crypto. And you still are without seeing any pitfalls or dangers ahead.

The narrative is continuously changing.

I noticed you gave up defending virtusa-is-a-liar... good

That piece of shit is a fucking pussy, notice how virtusa-is-a-liar runs away like a coward as soon as I post about virtusa-is-a-liar because virtusa-is-a-liar knows I expose the truth

I don't see the purpose. And you're really disrespectful the way you describe Virtusa here.

For all you know I may know him in person and know about his results.

1000 % per year day trading futures is certainly possible if you have an accurate system and can compound your account.

 

[themickey]

Virtusa is possibly European or Asian, to Westerners he comes across as arrogant and argumentative.
But imo, if you think about any great traders or very succesful people, they too often come across as haughty.
Ya gotta consider many facts.
The fact virtusa makes good calls imo and is a fucking miser in detail can be danged annoying, but such is life, he said himself and I agree, when you've spent a shitload of time and money to get where you are, you're not going to give that away to the rabble for free.
Johnarb constantly calling 'virtusa is a liar' does not help the situation, it makes it worse.
Virtusa and johnarb go head to head on bitcoin direction and johnarb is clearly triggered by that, emotions getting too carried away, smacks of bitcoin cultism to me.

 

[johnarb]

That's possible. It's also 100 % possible that Bitcoin and other cryptos will never get back to ATHs.

Nobody really knows.
The narrative is continuously changing.

I got lucky that I studied Bitcoin early in 2013 and put as much as I could borrow from credit cards to invest in it

As far as timing, I suck at it. I held on to Bitcoin from $100 to $1,200 in Jan/2014 and then it crashed into the bear market in until 2016 with a low of $150

I also watched it go back up to $20,000 but again, held it all the way down to $3,200

But all the nocoiner haters coming out of the woodwork saying Bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge, outside of the system, etc, etc

First of all, Satoshi released Bitcoin in 2009 with only the promise that it's decentralized, censorship resistant, p2p digital money/asset that does not require centralized intermediaries

That's a lot to take in there, but let's focus on one thing, Bitcoin was worth $0 when Satoshi released it

The last public message post from Satoshi was posted on 4/26/2011 and the price of Bitcoin was $1.50 each. ONE US $ and FIFTY cents

Everyone saying Bitcoin failed as this uncorrelated digital asset and is not an inflation hedge is basically saying Satoshi failed. Failed at what?? Satoshi gave us digital asset that cannot be confiscated or censored and is global...

And people think Bitcoin has failed because of its fiat currency price

Bitcoin is much more than its fiat price.

Bitcoin a global monetary network that is censorship resistant and if you store it on your own local wallet, has no counterparty risk

Few understand this

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virtusa-is-a-liar is making 1000% per year for over 10 years, if you know virtusa-is-a-liar in real life, does virtusa-is-a-liar have a yacht??

1000% of $10 is only $100...

 

[johnarb]

Virtusa is possibly European or Asian, to Westerners he comes across as arrogant and argumentative.
But imo, if you think about any great traders or very succesful people, they too often come across as haughty.
Ya gotta consider many facts.
The fact virtusa makes good calls imo and is a fucking miser in detail can be danged annoying, but such is life, he said himself and I agree, when you've spent a shitload of time and money to get where you are, you're not going to give that away to the rabble for free.
Johnarb constantly calling 'virtusa is a liar' does not help the situation, it makes it worse.
Virtusa and johnarb go head to head on bitcoin direction and johnarb is clearly triggered by that, emotions getting too carried away, smacks of bitcoin cultism to me.

We had our blowup when Bitcoin was still going up. virtusa-is-a-liar was a perma bear on Bitcoin so is currently pretending to be correct, but disappears when Bitcoin is on an uptrend

Sounds to me like virtusa-is-a-liar has fooled a lot of people. Good, I hope you all invest with virtusa-is-a-liar and get scammed

 

[hilmy83]

Lol damn

 

[Laissez Faire]

I got lucky that I studied Bitcoin early in 2013 and put as much as I could borrowing from credit cards to invest in it

I'm sure many did the same thing recently and are in deep sh*t. If it weren't for evil central banks people wouldn't have the opportunity to lend (cheap) fiat money to buy stuff like cryptocurrencies and crypto "art".

It wasn't only cryptocurrencies that appreciated like crazy over the last decade.

But all the nocoiner haters coming out of the woodwork saying Bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge, outside of the system, etc, etc

First of all, Satoshi released Bitcoin in 2009 with only the promise that it's decentralized, censorship resistant, p2p digital money/asset that does not require centralized intermediaries

That's a lot to take in there, but let's focus on one thing, Bitcoin was worth $0 when Satoshi released it

The last public message post from Satoshi was posted on 4/26/2011 and the price of Bitcoin was $1.50 each. ONE US $ and FIFTY cents

Everyone saying Bitcoin failed as this uncorrelated digital asset and is not an inflation hedge is basically saying Satoshi failed. Failed at what?? Satoshi gave us digital asset that cannot be confiscated or censored and is global...

And people think Bitcoin has failed because of its fiat currency price

Bitcoin is much more than its fiat price.

Bitcoin a global monetary network that is censorship resistant and if you store it on your own local wallet, has no counterparty risk

Few understand this.

That's all really cool (seriously, no sarcasm).

Regardless, I'm sure everyone who invests in BTC wants a return on their money. They don't really give a damn about the utility. Did Baron really buy all this crypto for the utility? And to put it in cold storage for what exactly?

Satoshi seems to have succeeded with what he wanted.

A hedge against inflation and central banks seems to be a narrative others have put forth. And there can't be the slightest doubt that this didn't hold up.