Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

[semperfrosty]

I can agree with day trading crypto or quick in and out swing trading if fast on entries and exits but from what I'm gathering from many comments on ET, the majority have a belief crypto is a good long term buy and hold proposition.

I remember Livermore saying that you have to be right but also right at the right time.

I think I'm right but I'm early.

Only time will tell.

There's potential pain there if you're not using money you can afford to lose,speculation money.

I bought more BTC,ETH and LTC this morning to hold.

I bought a very small additional stake in ARC as it is my most unfavourite product.haha.Im hoping to improve my average buy and get out sooner.I got sucked in by the Amazon chatter and pretty sure I bought in on a pump.

In short,I'm a believer in the technology and can see many applications where it will thrive.

Funnily enough,I'll start to get nervous when there aren't any crypto detractors left online.Thats like tracking sentiment to me.haha.When they disappear,I'll do a deep dive and reassess.

Again,time will reveal all.

 

[johnarb]

Funnily enough,I'll start to get nervous when there aren't any crypto detractors left online.Thats like tracking sentiment to me.haha.When they disappear,I'll do a deep dive and reassess.

Again,time will reveal all.

Bitcoin and other crypto assets are a global financial system

Estimate is that there are 300M people in the world that own crypto assets and it's growing

There are 4 Billion monthly active users of Facebook, a social network app on the internet

Crypto assets are a monetary network app on the internet

 

[virtusa]

Nope not going to sell, going to buy. People that bought low BTC at $ 500 are still in profit and many sold high. Nothing went wrong, we will see in the future if it goes back to $ 60,000.
When the other exchanges went bankrupt that was a clue to not hold your money in an exchange.

You explain what theoretically should happen. This thread shows what happened in reality. If you see the difference between theory and reality you are basically telling that Baron is a ...
A lot of people are making fortunes while Baron loses on each position he took.

According to you most people bought under $500 and sold high. If they sold high, somebody else had to buy high, if not there was no counterparty. For each coin that is bought or sold you need a buyer and a seller.
If we see a loss of value of over 2 trillion for BTC then somebody has to lose, it is mathematically impossible that all win.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/cry...nvestors-lost-more-than-2-trillion-since.html
"
A year ago this week, investors were describing bitcoin as the future of money and ethereum as the world’s most important developer tool. Non-fungible tokens were exploding, Coinbase was trading at a record and the NBA’s Miami Heat was just into its first full season in the newly renamed FTX Arena.
As it turns out, that was peak crypto.
In the 12 months since bitcoin topped out at over $68,000, the two largest digital currencies have lost three-quarters of their value, collapsing alongside the riskiest tech stocks. The industry, once valued at roughly $3 trillion, now sits at around $900 billion."
"
Crypto was supposed to bring transparency. Transactions on the blockchain could all be tracked. We didn’t need centralized institutions — banks — because we had digital ledgers to serve as the single source of truth.

That narrative is gone."

But I get it everybody wins and nobody loses. LOL. If you bought under $500 and sold high to buy low again, you should be a billionaire by now.

They did not lose money because of price but because of fraud. Client funds were removed and given to their sister firm that lost it trading. Also, just recently hackers stole another $ 500 million from FTX. I am surprised Barron does not put most of his coins in a wallet.

You just confirmed that crypto's are fraud. The crypto's are constructed in such a way that, what happens all the time, is possible. Why don't we hear about this in regard to fiat currencies. At least not with the size and frequency that it happens with crypto's?

 

[Baron]

You explain what theoretically should happen. This thread shows what happened in reality. If you see the difference between theory and reality you are basically telling that Baron is a ...
A lot of people are making fortunes while Baron loses on each position he took.

According to you most people bought under $500 and sold high. If they sold high, somebody else had to buy high, if not there was no counterparty. For each coin that is bought or sold you need a buyer and a seller.
If we see a loss of value of over 2 trillion for BTC then somebody has to lose, it is mathematically impossible that all win.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/cry...nvestors-lost-more-than-2-trillion-since.html
"
A year ago this week, investors were describing bitcoin as the future of money and ethereum as the world’s most important developer tool. Non-fungible tokens were exploding, Coinbase was trading at a record and the NBA’s Miami Heat was just into its first full season in the newly renamed FTX Arena.
As it turns out, that was peak crypto.
In the 12 months since bitcoin topped out at over $68,000, the two largest digital currencies have lost three-quarters of their value, collapsing alongside the riskiest tech stocks. The industry, once valued at roughly $3 trillion, now sits at around $900 billion."
"
Crypto was supposed to bring transparency. Transactions on the blockchain could all be tracked. We didn’t need centralized institutions — banks — because we had digital ledgers to serve as the single source of truth.

That narrative is gone."

But I get it everybody wins and nobody loses. LOL. If you bought under $500 and sold high to buy low again, you should be a billionaire by now.



You just confirmed that crypto's are fraud. The crypto's are constructed in such a way that, what happens all the time, is possible. Why don't we hear about this in regard to fiat currencies. At least not with the size and frequency that it happens with crypto's?

Your inability to look at crypto from any timeframe other than the $68k top until now is staggering. I wonder why you do that and always ignore the 10 years of bitcoin trading activity up until the $68k.

 

[Baron]

The crypto's are constructed in such a way that, what happens all the time, is possible. Why don't we hear about this in regard to fiat currencies. At least not with the size and frequency that it happens with crypto's?

What are you talking about? The media has been covering inflation and currency devaluation every day for a year now. In my area, the dollar has lost a staggering amount of purchasing power compared to last year. My house was $2.3 million a year or two ago but now you'd need $3.7 million to buy the exact same house today. That's over a 50% collapse in USD buying power.

 

[DT-waw]

While 3/4 of trading+investment population is occupied by crypto world (obvious ponzi, except those backed by gold) - central banks buy what? What?? WTF??
GOLD.

Physical gold is opposite of cryptocurrencies in every way.

Fundamentally, it is whoaaa ***** PHYSICAL****, get that millennial virtual cookies?
But bitcon is ... surprise! **** VIRTUAL**** Not partially virtual, no. Fully virtual.

Do any of major central banks own cryptos?

They maybe invented BTC and unleashed it to the world, but do they buy it every quarter?
Hell no.

What is BTC market cap now? 330 billion USD?
Central banks GOLD holdings are worth 1.7 Trillion USD, plus approx 27 trillion in fiat FX reserves.
You think Central banks will buy bitcoin? Forget it - they would need to buy it all. But the monent they would do it - humans will crave anything but bitcon , aaaand?

To beat central banks humanity needs 1 thing.

Largely agree what is best money.

and obviously choose something which is not coming from central banks, which is not regulated, controlled, etc by them right?

Majority of human beings need to finally choose THEIR OWN FCKIN MONEY.

It could be silver or platinum for sure..........

Its right there, on a silver plate for all humanity.

But no. since 99.9% are not interested in being free from central banking cartel - we have, what we have.

 

[Sprout]

You explain what theoretically should happen. This thread shows what happened in reality. If you see the difference between theory and reality you are basically telling that Baron is a ...
A lot of people are making fortunes while Baron loses on each position he took.

According to you most people bought under $500 and sold high. If they sold high, somebody else had to buy high, if not there was no counterparty. For each coin that is bought or sold you need a buyer and a seller.
If we see a loss of value of over 2 trillion for BTC then somebody has to lose, it is mathematically impossible that all win.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/cry...nvestors-lost-more-than-2-trillion-since.html
"
A year ago this week, investors were describing bitcoin as the future of money and ethereum as the world’s most important developer tool. Non-fungible tokens were exploding, Coinbase was trading at a record and the NBA’s Miami Heat was just into its first full season in the newly renamed FTX Arena.
As it turns out, that was peak crypto.
In the 12 months since bitcoin topped out at over $68,000, the two largest digital currencies have lost three-quarters of their value, collapsing alongside the riskiest tech stocks. The industry, once valued at roughly $3 trillion, now sits at around $900 billion."
"
Crypto was supposed to bring transparency. Transactions on the blockchain could all be tracked. We didn’t need centralized institutions — banks — because we had digital ledgers to serve as the single source of truth.

That narrative is gone."

But I get it everybody wins and nobody loses. LOL. If you bought under $500 and sold high to buy low again, you should be a billionaire by now.



You just confirmed that crypto's are fraud. The crypto's are constructed in such a way that, what happens all the time, is possible. Why don't we hear about this in regard to fiat currencies. At least not with the size and frequency that it happens with crypto's?

‘While you have valid criticisms, you are conflating narratives and arguments. We understand that you are a never coiner and a permanent-bear. Enjoy your yuks, maxi’s could give a ..

 

[Baron]

Majority of human beings need to finally choose THEIR OWN FCKIN MONEY.

It could be silver or platinum for sure..........

Silver and platinum are not money. They are rocks dug out of the ground. Good luck buying your next vehicle with a chunk of platinum.

To beat central banks humanity needs 1 thing.

Largely agree what is best money.

and obviously choose something which is not coming from central banks, which is not regulated, controlled, etc by them right?

Yeah, it's called Bitcoin.

 

[DT-waw]

Silver and platinum are not money. They are rocks dug out of the ground. Good luck buying your next vehicle with a chunk of platinum.



Yeah, it's called Bitcoin.

I am sorry, but you need to educate yourself more. You might have big trading knowledge, but monetary issues are somewhat different animal. Good sources are: Mike Maloney books, interviews with Matthew Pipenburg, Alasdair McLeod or Andy Shectman, Steve Angelo.

I trade market since 1996 and only begin to appreciate the importance of precious metals since 2018.... so it may take some time, esp. if you are "hardcore" trader and focus only on numbers on the screens.

In similar fashion, most traders totally ignore the energy aspect of economy. Not from a perspective of fiat prices, but from Energy Return on Inv.

 

[themickey]

I trade market since 1996 and only begin to appreciate the importance of precious metals since 2018.

I trade market since 1990 and only begin to appreciate the importance of Base metals since 2018.