Baron's Crypto Trading Journal
- Thread starter Baron
- Start date
Really? Generally, it is very rare for anyone below 40 yrs old to gain deep knowledge about precious metals, base metals also. Most are caught in Forex, derivatives, trendy stocks, or Fed meetings.......
Natural resources are by far the most important in any economy.
Also, one may listen to Nassim Nicholas Taleb and his interpretation of cryptos. he calls them "tumors".
On the ASX we have little choice, about 30% constituents are metals.
Besides metals seem to perform best, albeit, metals are cyclical going through numerous booms and busts, but those busts just allow for great buying opportunities.
ASX Metals & Mining Companies
There are 765 companies in the Metals & Mining industry listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)
https://www.listcorp.com/asx/sectors/materials/materials/metals-mining
What the ASX lacks mostly is technology stocks.
The largest sector on ASX is banking.
*spits beverage at screen* That is not a 50% loss in USD buying power, that is the fact that your property became much more valuable over the past year! How can you compare the standard purchasing power of the USD to a home? There is so much intangible in that it boggles the minds, like your location, type of house, tax assessment changes, etc etc!
For example, let's take the 2.3 million you got for your home last year and bought boxes of Twinkies with the proceeds. Let's say it is $4 per box of Twinkies...
That's 600,000 boxes of Twinkies for your house.
A year later, you sell your home at 3.7 million, and the price of Twinkies went to $5 per box...
You can now get 740,000 boxes of Twinkies for your house. That is not a deflation rate of 50% on the USD!
*smacks Baron What is wrong with you!*
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This is why you keep wasting your money on cryptos. You are a rich ass. You can play with shit coins.
Baron
ET Founder
OMG. Where do you think the increases in home prices (and many things) came from in the past year or two? I'm just curious.
Baron
ET Founder
It's called trading with money you can afford to lose. You may have heard of that concept before.
I'm not a believer in Crypto; I think long term most of it will be a lot closer to zero then where many people think. I do however recognize it's in the hands of speculators as a collective how it gets valued. I personally prefer to speculate on energy stocks and possibly some mining areas involving metals that will be in demand like Copper. I also think many Canadian small caps got super cheap lately are decent speculative plays. However, like Crypto the miners / small caps can crash and burn. In any event you need to be very aware in any of these areas of the main factors in play and how best to play them. I know almost nothing about Crypto.
Crypto isn't much different then the Dot Com explosion and I never invested in that either despite it being very popular and me being in IT. I never got the value proposition and ultimately I was right from a long term perspective and wrong from a short term trading perspective ( not that I had the time to actively trade it ). I'm not saying Crypto will die for sure like Dot Com I just choose not to bother with it. Note that anyone putting their money into a collection of high risk Canadian energy stocks in March 2020 did better then any asset class on the planet afaik. And almost nobody wanted to own it in 2020.
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In Florida, much of the increase is from very high demand pressure as more and more blue state residents move to Florida not for the sunshine and taxes (which is why my grandparents moved to Florida way back in the 1980's) but for Red State politics. I mentioned somewhere else in ET that a friend of mine had recently moved from the blue Northeast to Florida, and she moved so that Desantis could be her governor. Not only did she move there for that reason, but her parents then sold their home in the Northeast and followed her. They moved because their daughter and granddaughter were now in Florida, of course. But they were already talking about it because they too wanted to escape the "radical libs" up North. Florida real estate prices will probably continue to show relative strength to other areas of the country because there is a very real movement of Red state souls to Florida's Red State soil and sand.
But for everywhere else, the price of real estate is like bond prices. Interest rates down, prices up. As rates rise, prices will have to fall if for no other reason than affordability, or else the market will simply "freeze." Dollar strength right now is coming from where it always has in the past: the direct result of rising interest rates in a reserve currency.
Here is the problem I see with cryptocurrencies as opposed to fiat currencies, especially the US Dollar. The US Dollar is backed by the full faith and credit of the USA government which in turn is derived from the taxing authority over the future earnings of the American people.
Crypto is backed seemingly by nothing but supply and demand and "meme-stock-like" emotion.
As for the broader category of digital currencies, it is likely only a matter of time before the US and other governments issue their own digital currencies, and potentially regulate out of existence private crypto issues altogether. If that happens, what happens to the demand for bitcoin, for example? Who stands at the ready to convert now useless bitcoin into exchangeable US Dollars?
I, myself, do not know what the exchange mechanism and authority would be in such a case. Admittedly, I don't pretend to understand "crypto" and all the implications for it that the future holds. But neither to most people. And by "most," I think I mean "all." Many holders of cryptocurrency would probably be well-advised to read and study the very dense Theory of Money and Credit by Ludwig Von Mise, with special attention to chapter three, "The Various Types of Money." And then ask yourself where cryptocurrency fits in within that discussion.
While your narrative about Florida has an anecdotal example, the demographics show a different trend. Since 2016, population increase has trended down and ethnicity has grown more diverse.
https://usafacts.org/data/topics/pe...MI88OQiOqt-wIVrg2tBh053gCsEAAYASAAEgKrjvD_BwE
Also, btc maxi’s love Mises. BTC’s narrative has evolved with time; SoV, MoE, UoA
https://mises.org/library/bitcoin-money-myth
Only time will judge whether BTC has durable value or not.
Dan Held’s (OG Btc maxi) perspective is insightful and this thread is a condensed version;