Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

[themickey]

Nobody knows if or when something will rally, nobody has predictave abilities.
Traders yap on day and night 365 days a year about gold, but it's nothing to crow about.
Besides that; CAN YOU TRADE IT?
It's all good and well in hindsight, shoulda, woulda coulda, but maybe you shoulda got out of bitcoin ages ago.
Oooohhhh yes, crypyo is going to rally to the moon, if you guys are so clever, how come a bagholder atm?

Bottom line get the cultism thinking out your heads, crypto will do what it will do, looking at past recent price action, the moves will be tricky to trade with lots of fake signals.

The future moves on crypto could be shitty moves, jerking up and down, is that the best bang for your bucks?

 

[Overnight]

There will be delays due to the two-week hurricane cleanup disaster last month... and now we are getting another one tonight believe it or not... the first on record in Florida for this time of the year. I can't seem to catch a break this year.
View attachment 299199

Bollocks. I have been trading through Nor'Easters uphill in the snow both ways. So long as we had power I got 'er done. Nor'Easters are basically tropical storms or Cat 1 hurricanes with snow. I even have a video of one I filmed from my window showing the horizontal snow, which I would be able to host here, if you had your upgrade in place! Slacker!

 

[Darc]

Bollocks. I have been trading through Nor'Easters uphill in the snow both ways. So long as we had power I got 'er done. Nor'Easters are basically tropical storms or Cat 1 hurricanes with snow. I even have a video of one I filmed from my window showing the horizontal snow, which I would be able to host here, if you had your upgrade in place! Slacker!

Why are you so keen on an upgrade? Upgrades are usually a pain in the ass in that you have to get used to the new functionality, appearance etc. If it ain't broke why fix it? What more do you want?

 

[johnarb]

f

Of course you will. You have Asperger’s and you’re the king of Sim. They’ve all come out of the woodwork. Handle123 was short but hedged, Johnarb somehow got short, Pekelo Pete called it from 60k. Some other clown called it but since he thinks btc is a scam, why get short?

I'm holding btc and other crypto assets in local wallets and a few btc's on exchanges that have not been sold nor planning to sell

I shorted FTT via perpetual futures and closed them as of last night. I shorted FTT perp futures again this morning and have not covered

I'm not hedged or net short at all, I'm long btc and other crypto assets

 

[Overnight]

Why are you so keen on an upgrade? Upgrades are usually a pain in the ass in that you have to get used to the new functionality, appearance etc. If it ain't broke why fix it? What more do you want?

Oh, stout yeoman, ye do not understand the pain we users of this site have been through with the fleshing out of the features wanted and rejected, digested and digressed upon. Woe it be, and dare I say to thee, ye do not understand the pestilence of saying NEE to old ladies.

 

[virtusa]

How were you aware at the time of a (short term) top?
I don't know anyone who can recognize a top at the time.
Confirming a top would be in hindsight?

Many trolls on ET did a lot of name calling about me. So all I can say is that I posted twice in this thread and twice I was right. It was BEFORE the real drop happened, so it was no hindsight.

I manage to see before we reach each turning point that it will happen. So I know already with high probability that the turn will come very soon. And if the last confirmation is not fulfilled I stay out and wait for a next signal. I don't aim at the top (quote), I aim at the perfect signal in my system, no matter where the top is. When I speak about the top it is not the price where we are, but the perfect signal in my system.
Last Sunday I posted during the day, and at the close of Sunday I got the signal that we would go down. Just check what I exactly wrote in the two posts.
So all these so called "hindsight" signals according to trolls are no hindsight at all. I trade based on "behavioral finance", so I try to "measure" what the market (so the people) will do. Behavior is predictable with high probability.

Confirming a top would be in hindsight?

I always miss the extreme price, confirmation always comes after each top or bottom. So from that point of view you could call it hindsight. But without these extreme prices there would be no top or bottom.

These trolls on ET are the reason why I stopped posting. From one side I am happy they did, because otherwise I might have given away too much. So for that I am thankfull that they have a very negative impact on the quality of information on ET.

I don't know anyone who can recognize a top at the time.

Everybody is limited by his own knowledge. So the fact that you don't know anybody who can recognize a top at the time, is based on your own knowledge. Each person has this problem, so me too. When I started to trade decades ago, I would have signed for 2 points ES a day. With the knowledge that I had at that time 2 points was unreachable. Now my knowledge changed profoundly and 2 points is not magical or unreachable anymore.
If somebody would have told me 20 years ago that I would reach the level I that reach now, I would never have believed him.

 

[Pekelo]

Pekelo Pete called it from 60k.

Febr 13th, BTC was around 42K, and you are welcome:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ads-this-is-the-year-when-cryptos-die.364953/

Anyhow mark my word, BTC under 20K a year from now...

 

[ElCubano]

Of course you will. You have Asperger’s and you’re the king of Sim. They’ve all come out of the woodwork. Handle123 was short but hedged, Johnarb somehow got short, Pekelo Pete called it from 60k. Some other clown called it but since he thinks btc is a scam, why get short?

lol

 

[themickey]

Many trolls on ET did a lot of name calling about me. So all I can say is that I posted twice in this thread and twice I was right. It was BEFORE the real drop happened, so it was no hindsight.

I manage to see before we reach each turning point that it will happen. So I know already with high probability that the turn will come very soon. And if the last confirmation is not fulfilled I stay out and wait for a next signal. I don't aim at the top (quote), I aim at the perfect signal in my system, no matter where the top is. When I speak about the top it is not the price where we are, but the perfect signal in my system.
Last Sunday I posted during the day, and at the close of Sunday I got the signal that we would go down. Just check what I exactly wrote in the two posts.
So all these so called "hindsight" signals according to trolls are no hindsight at all. I trade based on "behavioral finance", so I try to "measure" what the market (so the people) will do. Behavior is predictable with high probability.

I always miss the extreme price, confirmation always comes after each top or bottom. So from that point of view you could call it hindsight. But without these extreme prices there would be no top or bottom.

These trolls on ET are the reason why I stopped posting. From one side I am happy they did, because otherwise I might have given away too much. So for that I am thankfull that they have a very negative impact on the quality of information on ET.

Everybody is limited by his own knowledge. So the fact that you don't know anybody who can recognize a top at the time, is based on your own knowledge. Each person has this problem, so me too. When I started to trade decades ago, I would have signed for 2 points ES a day. With the knowledge that I had at that time 2 points was unreachable. Now my knowledge changed profoundly and 2 points is not magical or unreachable anymore.
If somebody would have told me 20 years ago that I would reach the level I that reach now, I would never have believed him.

Well I have respect for you and I have respect for all ET'ers who are coders, imo, coding skills unlock a lot of mystery doors to how markets operate.
But my question to you was not a put down or criticism, I was genuinely perplexed how anyone can call tops, hence why I mentioned hindsight.
I went looking through your past posts to see if I could find examples of you posting charts, alas could find nothing.

 

[vanzandt]

Trading is a confusing occupation, in that on the one hand one needs strong conviction and steadfastness with your systematic trading plan, yet at the same time have zero conviction about being right or wrong, zero conviction of what an instrument will do next, in otherwords, remain fluid.
It doesn't pay to have cultist beliefs such as in crypto or gold or ARKK type stocks (ETF).
You need to trade your plan with discipline yet be lackadaisical on direction.
So your brain needs to be thinking two different ways simultaneously, steadfast yet hands off, not something which comes naturally easily.

That's pretty well put.
I never thought about it like that but you are 100% right.