Quote from ehorn:
Thanks very much for this.
So the smart money does not show on DOM. But is visible (past tense) on T/S.
Would you elaborate on the "games"? What does one look for to see them being played? Is this orders being placed and pulled (not executed) on DOM? Are these "games" in effect during cascades?
Thanks again.
The markets are counterintuitive and a lot goes on as time passes.
One thing that is helpful is to be able to see what is going on. This has two parts: Displaying the market on screens and doing a routine that sensibly examines what is there to be seen.
Making money mostly invloves holding during profit segments to take the markets offer from one end of the segment to another. The last chart displayed shows an exceptional trade underway.
Any one can choose to watch to any extent they desire. I feel it is reasonable to pay attention to two things: The continuation of a profit segment and each end of a profit segment.
Using the DOM for this purpose involves examining the ends of trends (the respective "bid" and ask" walls). What happens in between the two walls is how price "continues from one end to the other.
In the last chart, the entry is now upside down and the exit is on the Wall. So whatt will happen is the trader will not exit and price will return to his entry (a "wash" trading point). Then it will put the trader in a loss position if he does not go to the right side of the market at that time. He has already done this sequence once in this trade.
There are several types of games. Lets divide them into two types: "wall games" and "trend segment games".
you commented about smart money and if it shows. A 1000 contract "showing" ordet is not going to be posted by just anyone. The OP won't and neither will the 1 nor will the moderator. The reason is that the market rules do not permit these types of traders to place 1000 lot orders.
The first thing to get straight is that guys who post 1000 lot orders are NOT BS'ers. Who are the BS'ers? These are people who trade few lots and do not show up on the DOM, T&S or anywhere else.
People who play the games on the DOM are significantly capitalized traders and they have been trading for quite a while. These people also have several accounts running at one time and the accounts are not necessarily in the same shop.
We can subdivide the two categories as well. that will put four games on the table for starters and none of the games are playered by people who are BS'ers and they all have the account sizes required to play the games. So under end effects games lets add the "partial fillers" and under the "trend segment gamers" lets add the "scalers" (two sizes: in and out).
I have been in professional rooms where the guys cannot "tape read". Nor can they "see" the games played nor do they play the games.
To be a trader and be good at it, the trader has to know how markets work and how to time them. This means that those who play games know these things and the games make for more effectiveness and efficiency on their parts.
Now that we have the kinds of games and their purposes on the table, we can look at some of the FAV times for ripping new ones for less skilled BS'ers. My all time FAv is, as you suggest, cascading. I did narrate the 27FEB "show" and we camtasia'ed the event as shown using the layout in my posted pic. What is nice about this level of record keeping is the debriefing aspect. you can pick out ech kind of game as a file for demo purposes.
The 1 noted the end effect game where the market was furthered in trending past a wall that was pulled by several people acting together. You can see this game clearly by the combo of the OTR volume, the T&S and the DOM. It is not a good idea to conclude that people with a lot of money who work together are BS. The alternative is to watch them operate and front run them at their game.
Here we see the divergence of opinions. A person can read all of them and then come to understand what path he wishes to follow. My choice is to cull my past postings into an appendix that will articulate the above games that are played and to further explain how to front run them when they are understood and seen on a display.
How can a person who recognises a trend use the DOM to "push" The trend to counter act his scale in's? You see this at two times. By watching the wall move away from the BBid/BAsk and you see it by "successive "pulls" rippling ahead of the trend direction at least 2 or 3 ticks out. Usually, you also get to see how a group is cooperating while doing it.
Lastly, you have to spend an equal amount of time looking at a filtered T&S. In trading, only half of the traders "show" in a trade. I, for one, do not show ever. As history, these kinds of people show after their moves. They "show" two things: their sentiment and their strength of commitment. To diquise either or both is important. Partial fills help. I always use the same partial value, and I always operate at the same rate (punctuation). But I only show after the fact.
All the game players who show (and pull) not not have the slightest concern about showing because they know the attitudes of most people watching them pull off their very advantageous tricks of the trade.
On the last posted chart you got to see the duration of the "railroad tracking" going on. there are terms like "exhaustion" and "congestion and "convergence". This is "phenomena" and it relates to a behavior called "reaction", i. e., the market "feeback loop". The OP is an example of "freezing" as market cycling is occurring. This leads a lot of people into habitual whipsawing. While whipsawing is not a game, it is an observable group behavior in trading.
One way to see the games is looking at the dynamic of the relative values of the stalagmites (or tites). The ripple of pulling ahead of the trend is the first one you will see. The second will most likely be the "groups" moving the wall ahead of a trend to extendit. both of these games lead to the mediocre trader lament: "I got out of that trade too early".