The Vinson ruling is subject to Supreme Court review. That is where this will be decided. The scholars in this field see it being ruled constitutional.
A quick summary:
"Since the New Deal, the court has consistently held that Congress has broad constitutional power to regulate interstate commerce. This includes authority over not just goods moving across state lines, but also the economic choices of individuals within states that have significant effects on interstate markets. By that standard, this lawâs constitutionality is open and shut. Does anyone doubt that the multitrillion-dollar health insurance industry is an interstate market that Congress has the power to regulate?
Many new provisions in the law, like the ban on discrimination based on pre-existing conditions, are also undeniably permissible. But they would be undermined if healthy or risk-prone individuals could opt out of insurance, which could lead to unacceptably high premiums for those remaining in the pool. For the system to work, all individuals â healthy and sick, risk-prone and risk-averse â must participate to the extent of their economic ability.
In this regard, the health care law is little different from Social Security. The court unanimously recognized in 1982 that it would be âdifficult, if not impossibleâ to maintain the financial soundness of a Social Security system from which people could opt out. The same analysis holds here: by restricting certain economic choices of individuals, we ensure the vitality of a regulatory regime clearly within Congressâs power to establish.
The justices arenât likely to be misled by the reasoning that prompted two of the four federal courts that have ruled on this legislation to invalidate it on the theory that Congress is entitled to regulate only economic âactivity,â not âinactivity,â like the decision not to purchase insurance. This distinction is illusory. Individuals who donât purchase insurance they can afford have made a choice to take a free ride on the health care system. They know that if they need emergency-room care that they canât pay for, the public will pick up the tab. This conscious choice carries serious economic consequences for the national health care market, which makes it a proper subject for federal regulation
"
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/08/opinion/08tribe.html?_r=1