Average daily profit with $50K account?
- Thread starter fcg007
- Start date
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
Well, if fibs are as magical as everyone thinks they are, then there is no risk of ruin
I used to have an entire bookcase full of trading books from when I was learning, but I've sold most of them because they were worthless. A few of them had some advice that gets quoted all over every trading forum, like "don't let a winner turn into a loser" and "learn to control your emotions," but none of that is really helpful if you think about it.
The rest were full of like Dr. Elder saying "look here's my Force Index indicator I created, and look how well it works on these cherry picked charts!!!!!"
Or a bunch of after the fact the fact trendlines. Hey, what about all those other trendlines you could have drawn that wouldn't have worked?
Who is "obviously much smarter than" me? The people that write the shitty books? Or the people that flame me because I make more money than they do with a smaller account size?
Sure. But let's not forget how often losses actually happen.
Last week, in 17 trades I had two losses. Average win size $450, average loss size -$679.
If someone had a 99% win rate where their winners were +1 but their losers were -20, and an account size of 100, would you tell them not to trade because 5 losses would wipe them out?
Now I understand that people who martingale make the similar arguments... "omg I have 99% win rate!!!" but they also usually have no stop loss and it takes one loss to blow them out. I have a hard stop defined for every trade before I even enter.
At my current size, it will take approximiately 73 consecutive losses to blow my account. Of course, before then I would no longer have enough margin to go 9 contracts deep, so let's say I'll quit if my account size falls to $20k. In that case, I can still survive 44 consecutive losing trades.
Now I'm not trying to get cocky. I do occasionally have losers that are big, but also sometimes they are smaller, depending on the range I establish before I enter the trade.
And as I mentioned in the other thread, for any given trade, the max winner is larger than the max loser.
Well dude, if that happens, I will send you a PM and tell you you were right. How about that
Seriously man just give up trying to explain it to him. He doesn't know how to trade, period. Just another one on ignore. Good trading.
also, while 300 - 400 per day is reasonable, it will not ever happen if you dont ask the more important question of how much is reasonable to risk per day? per trade? per week? per month? and what you will do when you hit your loss limits for each period. Those are much more important questions to focus on than how much money you want to make. I promise you you won't make a dime unless you focus on the opposite of what seems natural. focus on your losses not your gains.
While papertraders often have no problem acheiving this goal, as risk has no meaning when no money is on the table.
$400 a day is $400*270 trading days a year, or about $110K a year. Throw in trading costs, and maybe you need to pull $130-150K, or up to 300% annual return. And on the longterm? Slash the chance of doing this by perhaps a factor of 50.
Take a look at timertrac, robbins world cup, collective2, futurestruth and the other dusiters and see how very very very few do this when PAPER trading without worry of risk.
And your statement vanishes like smoke in a hurricane. Throw in risk of ruin, errors, taxes and other things, and it is beyond ludicrous for people to "expect" this kind of return.
Yes - you can expect to lose 300-400 a day on average until you blow out.