Long-term? Read the IMF piece in the Fin today, with a trade defecit of 7% of GDP and projected to go to 100% by 2020, no one in their right mind could be long the US dollar -- long term. Now short to intermediate-term is another matter, like 6 months, yeah, I can see that, unless the Fed starts talking about cutting rates. I could see the dollar gaining against all the majors over the next few months.
Aud/usd
- Thread starter BigFunky
- Start date
Long-term? Read the IMF piece in the Fin today, with a trade defecit of 7% of GDP and projected to go to 100% by 2020, no one in their right mind could be long the US dollar -- long term. Now short to intermediate-term is another matter, like 6 months, yeah, I can see that, unless the Fed starts talking about cutting rates. I could see the dollar gaining against all the majors over the next few months.
I kept in mind this year's us dollar bull trend, for the start.
Assessing macroeconomic data is a tricky thing cause u might get wrong but won't know it till the economic situation actually manifests itself. And many do get wrong.
I remember the beginning of 2006 when everyone was expecting the Fed to cut but it never happenned. And they were still expecting. Damn analysts!
In a word, u can never be 100% sure using FA only.
this morning i was skeptical of a long aussie trade. at the time the price was stuck to yesterday's high and another daily high set 3 days ago.
however now aud/usd has broken out during relatively slow market hours and it should close above as well. i now think it may be going back into the long-term range it started at the first of the year.
having said that.. i actually like aud/nzd long even better... because i like usd better than nzd.
however now aud/usd has broken out during relatively slow market hours and it should close above as well. i now think it may be going back into the long-term range it started at the first of the year.
having said that.. i actually like aud/nzd long even better... because i like usd better than nzd.
. But it was actually very close to that considering the Friday's down move.Post below is from early January and obviously even more true now than then.
Of the various knives falling, I believe Aussie will be easiest to catch. Various reasons. So, I will buy the front-month future down at .7660 or so, 25 ticks lower than that, and then again at .7615. Those could print in a blink, so this will be dice rolling of the first order. Stops down in the mid to low .7500s.
Aussie at .7600 could look like .7880 after the wreckage.
Of the various knives falling, I believe Aussie will be easiest to catch. Various reasons. So, I will buy the front-month future down at .7660 or so, 25 ticks lower than that, and then again at .7615. Those could print in a blink, so this will be dice rolling of the first order. Stops down in the mid to low .7500s.
Aussie at .7600 could look like .7880 after the wreckage.
I still like being short here. Looking at both the pullback off resistance on the daily, and then looking at the weekly (last 6 years) it should come down quite a bit off those highs.