Aud/usd

Most important price action around FOMC release (leading to it and after): US ten-year note higher, yield lower, which is good for my position.

USA payrolls Friday, if cold (colder than expected), could launch AUS futures thru .8000. That should be true even if hourly wages are higher than trend. The wage data, while important to the Fed's inflation calculus, is a laggard compared to the jobs number. Or that's my understanding.

Quote from Chood:

. . . Loss of nerve would require US treasury yields to move substantially higher on this week's data points. If that occurs, I'd likely run for the door (as would others).
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The metals/mining pillar of my long Aussie position, addressed in your post below, could bring me to grief, although I do not believe so (not yet anyway). I believe yield still is primary, which is why I consider yield changes of US treasuries to be the key. My other pillar, continuing low JGB yield, is already long priced into my position (and beneficially so).

Still, today's beat in metals does not help Aussie longs. The beat shows up right now the most in Aussie mining stocks.

Quote from Ivanovich:

. . . I think that there is risk to commodities this year, which will weigh heavily on the australian economy. That is the only threat to your position I can see at the moment.
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JGB yields explode overnight, destroying pillar one of my long AUS position. Pillar two: Aussie mining stocks, so pretty one week ago, became weeping sores overnight, based on yesterday’s beat in metals. (Ivanovich signalled that risk, although I did not expect it to materialize in less than 24 hours of his post.)

My position (long Aussie dollar futures at .7809 avg in) remained and remains above water despite the torrential equity bleed. With two of its pillars gone (for now), the position is now distilled into a large bet on the direction of US treasury yields in the run up to and wake of tomorrow’s payrolls and wage data.

If I'm mistaken about yields, I'll be stopped out of the entire position about fifty ticks under avg entry.
 
Quote from Chood:

Thanks for the reply. The market, with today's extremely nice pop, is idiot-proofing my position. (I mean proofing it against mistakes by me.)
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Famous last words.

I am surprised the forex threads aren't popping. Not only over today's action. The last month or so has been a terrific time to kill or be killed in these markets. Is anyone working?

(P.S. My AUS longs continue to survive the bloodbath, but only barely, and without any solace at all given the profit that evaporated from the position.)
 
Chood, I admire your threshold for pain ;)

I'm getting back in ... purely from a technical point. On daily chart area of (hopefully) good support 0.7765 to 0.7780. Flag pattern formed right on the area (just like eur/usd) and my money is on a break to the upside.

If the price breaks below 0.7765 and holds I'm going to have to look for a good place to get into a short.
 
Quote from DrEvil:

Chood, I admire your threshold for pain ;)

I'm getting back in ... purely from a technical point. On daily chart area of (hopefully) good support 0.7765 to 0.7780. Flag pattern formed right on the area (just like eur/usd) and my money is on a break to the upside.

If the price breaks below 0.7765 and holds I'm going to have to look for a good place to get into a short.
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Good luck on the trade. Trust me, "tolerance" is more accurate than "threshold." Threshold got crossed some time ago.

I've yet to have someone hand me a bouquet when I win, so I'm not looking for a crying towel either.
 
The Australian Trade Balance report can give a very good trade, but only if it gives sufficient deviation. If it doesn't give sufficient deviation from expectation, it's very risky to trade it. I really like the consensus on this report, I've looked at opinions of 20 different economists and sources, and most of the consensus falls into a very tight range of between -650 to -950 million on this report. Many times the consensus is a lot crazier when it comes to trade balances. I'll consider a good average consensus on this report at -750 million. If the reading shows -350 million or less negative, it would be the highest reading on the trade balance since February of 2006, and therefore would be positive for the Australian dollar, and I may possibly go long on AUD/NZD. If the reading comes out at -1,300 million or more negative, it would signify even lower reading than previous month, and would be the lowest reading since May of 2006. If that happens, I may possibly go short on AUD/NZD, since it would be bad for the Australian dollar. According to economists' opinions, there is a bigger chance of a negative surprise rather than a positive surprise, but that doesn't matter to me, I'll just trade the number when it comes out. If you don't have AUD/NZD pair on your platform, you can also trade AUD/USD instead. If my triggers are hit, I will expect a move of about 40 to 50 pips on the AUD/NZD pair, and a move of about 25 to 35 pips on the AUD/USD pair.
 
Quote from illiquid:

What a u-turn in this pair.
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I've just about thrown in the towel altogether after my own recent "instant riches, instant losses" experience in Aussie. Not that I was throwing darts, either. I had the trade bagged, cold, i.e., exactly for the reasons which drove the price my way, and still I couldn't profit.

If I ain't gettin it, I'd like to know who is.
 
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