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Quote from deadbroke:

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re: elasticity and slingshot power of the Monthly fib .....

(not to be found in any book, but because Fluid Mechanics, Thermodynamics and Aerodynamics were my favs, AND PRICE has whispered to me that he CAN and should be viewed within the realm of Bernoulli's equation AT SUPPORT/RESISTANCE ......)

On 1H Price is much lower than the 50% monthly fib-line and could cause one to assume that the support has totally failed. NO it hasn't. Price is building up static pressure during the meandering for hours and hours in this case. The slingshot can fire at any time, even from below the support line.

Static pressure will convert to Dynamic pressure, which has Velocity squared as a component - hence the speed aka rocket.

So until then I would hold off judgement on the Coefficient of Restitution of the support. Give it a chance and time.

I'm a bit drunk so sorry for the incoherency. :)

Luv you all. :)


http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/bern.html
More...


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see 1H chart EurUsd

the horizontal dashed line is the MONTHLY 50% Fib-line support talked about for several posts. Do you see how we approached it from below, it acted as resistance, we dropped and then rose and took it out? Yeah, PRICE knows its THERE. HE acknowldeged it loud and clear.

For your edification I've shown dashed uptrendlines to convey how PRICE is converting STATIC to DYNAMIC pressure - the angle of the dangle aka SLOPE.

STOP is now as shown. There was no reason to even look at a 5-min. chart up until now, but I see a possible 5 waves up so if you want to safeguard even more profits than the STOP shown, go ahead and follow on the 5-min. - if wave violation take profit and wait for reentry later ....

I can't follow along now as I'm off to the gym. Always a pleasure to see others making money. :) :D



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greetings to baron :)

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this part of the call has already fired, boss. Its in its infancy, but is now underway in earnest. See "fundamental = on the ground" proof below.

posted March 21, 2010 in TA thread .....

>>>> BEAR, by definition will test alliances that almost nobody could have thought of in advance ....

the Israeli - US relationship already tested

the UK - US relationship will be severely tested <<<<

-----------------------------

NOBODY would have ever thought that the US and UK would ever have a rift. That was the consensus. Cast in stone.

Bollox, I said.

CNN is now showing the reactions of Brits towards Americans with the BP fiasco as catalyst. Heck on the ground even here in a foreign country there is now open animosity and hostility towards us from them. Very plain to see, no need to be a genius to spot it.
And if the subject even comes up, tempers easily flare.

BEAR has come out of the March 9, 2009 hibernation, boss.
 
posted March 13, 2010 in TA thread ..... (daily chart)

Volume in Spy, DIA and Qs ........

vol should go with the trend, and it did this well for the entire crash from Oct 2007 to March 2009 lows.

The March 2009 onward alleged bull is running on fumes to such an extent its a miracle he's gotten this far. Nowhere near the vol of the crash.

And then the last 2 rallies and declines were on low and increasing vol = a bad, bad sign.

Finally, this last rally since Feb 5, 2010 low is on such low vol as to be highly suspect.

It stinks.

But the daily trend is still UP. And TREND can go miles with even a limp dick.

So I wait for the trendline/wavelow break et al

----------------------

Did we get the trendline break and the wave closing low violation in Mr. Jones? Yep. See the Feb 8 closing low - now look at June 7 closing low. Dig? That's a wave violation. So as the crowd of optimists is cheering the Dow on, I saw that his legs got broke. That's pretty serious to me. Can I be wrong? Yeah sure, but a wave violation is quite serious stuff.

You want another shocker? ..... What if the current daily chart rally in Jones is forming the right shoulder? right shoulder requires dry-up of volume, right?

:) :)
 
Nov 3, 2009 ... extract from my TA thread .... (I was very new here back then at this fabulous papertrading site) :) :)

>>>> Here's what I've done, am doing ..... all simple stuff ...

premise is: Cash is champion for the first time in 80 years. A total drying up of DEMAND is the environment for years

any investment real estate ... adios long time ago (2006)

business sold off. Will not start a new one till Depression ends.

No debts for the last several years .. only a pot to _ in but its free and clear. Ditto for everythng else I have, autos (2) etc., same, same.

All monies owed to me have been called in and collected.

Closed BAC & other accounts at large banks. Expect all to go under.

Cash stashed in multiple locations equal to 3-yr supply of emergency funds that require no access permission from any clowns.

NO to expensive purchases. All items of value that I don't think we need, have been dumped already.

Credit cards - only 1 and requested the limit be dropped to 5k.

Minimal gold coins, mostly Yen and $. If the latter has bottomed for sure, things can only get better.

Just simple stuff ...... <<<<
 
Quote from deadbroke:

Nov 3, 2009 ... extract from my TA thread .... >>>>

premise is: Cash is champion for the first time in 80 years

<<<<

More...


Remember what Warren Buffett and Bill Gates said in the Nov 2009 CNBC special interview at Columbia University? .... CASH is the worst investment at ANY, ALL times.

OK then, here's the next call: BEAR will tear both Buffett and Gates a new one in a BIG way!

-----------------------

Let renowned stock trader and speculator Gerald M. Loeb tell what happens when the bottom falls out. Loeb was later boss of E.F. Hutton and in 1971 wrote the book, "the battle for stock market profits"

(note: my crash call is at least one degree of trend higher, possibly 2, than that of the Great Depression = similar to Richter Scale analogy)

book extracts ........


"I lived in New York City in 1929. Hotels of all kinds were then going up on every side. They were in deep financial trouble almost overnight. I paid $12,000 a year rental for my two-bedroom-and-living-room suite in the Savoy Plaza. A year later I paid $4,000 a year, and this rate prevailed for about ten years.

During the 30s, occupancy rates in many cases dropped to under 50 percent. Hotel equities were wiped out . . . Commercial rentals also dropped severely. I know of cases where landlords practically waived the rent entirely just to keep the space occupied. The hope was that when times improved the building owner would have a rent-paying tenant again.

Wages and salaries decreased until about 1933. In 1931 my mother was in an accident and in a New Orleans hospital, I paid the going rate for a 24-hour registered nurse -- $8 a day.

Everything, including labor, was negotiable in those days. List prices were meaningless. During the 1933 bank holiday I paid $8 a day for a $40-a-day suite in an Atlantic City luxury hotel.

Cash was king. If you had cash you could buy tremendous bargains. There were equities in co-op luxury apartments that sold for six figures in 1929 going for just $1 in the 1930s. The owners could not pay their taxes, mortgage interest, and maintenance.

We had to cut everything in the security business to keep solvent. Employees who were kept on the payroll were put on "Scotch" weeks, i.e., they reported and were paid only every other week. Partners earned next to nothing or lost large amounts.

Prices of homes declined sharply. There was a mortgage moratorium.

A friend of mine who bought a diamond for "security" in 1929 paid $10,000. When he attempted to sell it in 1932 for the purpose of raising margin he could not get even $2,500"
 
Quote from deadbroke:

to Richter Scale analogy)

book extracts ........


Cash was king. If you had cash you could buy tremendous bargains.
More...


So when this happens, i.e. CASH IS KING ..... meaning ALL CASH. Why? .... because we are talking value relative to goods and services.

So over and above that, now factor in the international component of BEAR's 2 beneficiaries that I had identified, the US Dollar and Japanese Yen.

This combo, CASH multiplied by $ and Yen is not just a 3-fer, its a Richter Scale 3-fer.

This here then is the CRUX of my entire CALL since I came to ET.

Oh, and about gold, don't worry, I'll have you clowns buying it at $250 and then we'll ride it to $10k together, no in and out trading, just one buy and hold. :) :D meaning gold top is so close I can smell it!!!! Shorting? forget it. Nobody's going to get paid. Best to retreat to a bear cave and enjoy the spoils of PRESCIENCE :) :D
 
Quote from deadbroke:

---------------------------------------------

see 1H chart EurUsd

the horizontal dashed line is the MONTHLY 50% Fib-line support talked about for several posts. Do you see how we approached it from below, it acted as resistance, we dropped and then rose and took it out? Yeah, PRICE knows its THERE. HE acknowldeged it loud and clear.

For your edification I've shown dashed uptrendlines to convey how PRICE is converting STATIC to DYNAMIC pressure - the angle of the dangle aka SLOPE.

STOP is now as shown. There was no reason to even look at a 5-min. chart up until now, but I see a possible 5 waves up so if you want to safeguard even more profits than the STOP shown, go ahead and follow on the 5-min. - if wave violation take profit and wait for reentry later ....

I can't follow along now as I'm off to the gym. Always a pleasure to see others making money. :) :D



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More...

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another +100 pips locked-in by raising STOP to just under the 1H trendline shown. These STOPS are CLOSING-BASIS only and are manual. If/when one cannot watch, its always wise to add 3% of Price.




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Dow Jones 1H (60-min.) just shy of 50% retracement ...

If/when trendline breaks, TP + go Short instantly.

If short occurs and looks feeble, be alert to TP and go Long at 38.2% or 200 m.a. which are just below - we could go up further to 61.8%.




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boss,

there are many threads/posts on Apple (AAPL) - as a newbie investor or trader looking for some light on the subject; should I close out or go short or just stay away, etc., etc. - my conclusion was that a newbie would be better off in the dark than having to read any of the threads and become more confused.

Glaringly obvious is that even the traders who know and use TA, wander off into Funda - this is strange behaviour. Still others use Politics as "analysis"

All this in the face of the name ELITE, ACTIVE, #1 site .... = subliminal market savvy etc.

God help us :)

------------------------------


Apple's alltime top is within striking distance. I don't have realtime so the upper trendline break (daily chart) starts the SHORT which will last for years.

Apple will suffer the same/similar fate as BP - note that right now Apple is much loved. The pendulum will swing the other way and it will be much hated.

Analysis is same-o, same-o, same-o ....... the HERD is rigged for a 5-3 sequence. The "5" is quite obvious on Monthly, with the Daily then being used to time the final upwave from January 30, 2009.

Even a miscount cannot explain away the trendlines shown on monthly and daily. Break the top one and its over. Break the bottom one and things will accelerate to the downside.

Apple targets $76 OR $51 OR $3.25 OR Zero


Apple monthly




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Apple daily





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bonus for the pricks in the Elliottwave bashing threads :) :D

see how wave 4 (circled) dips right into area of the 4th of 3 circled?

This is CLASSIC wave behaviour. How often does it happen? Every damn day!!!! :) :D

Then notice how volume is no longer with the trend!!!!! Classic wave 5 lower breadth et al.
 
did I forget to mention .... ?

Vix daily is now almost at 78.6% retracement AND on the 200-day m.a. = a rocket northbound move?? = Dow Jones LONGS will need coffins in a hurry.

:) :D
 
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