Atheists, agnostics most knowledgeable about religion, survey says

Quote from jem:

1. Explain how the laws of physics allow the universe to begin from nothing.

Read Hawking's new book. It would be nice if us non-physicists could explain this concept in a simple ET post, but there is a reason as to why the Earth's greatest minds write entire books on such subjects.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Well, call me strange but I believe in something if I have evidence it exists. I don't believe in something without evidence, then wait until some evidence comes around to prove that it doesn't exist.

For example, I have no evidence the tooth fairy exists. When I was young I did, I was lied to by my parents that it came along dispensing money for teeth that fall out. So I pretended to be asleep, and when my parents came in to put the money under the pillow, I woke up and caught them red-handed. I was sceptical in the first place, but this confirmed it. The evidence contradicted what I had been told.

I have no evidence that giant marshmallows orbit the Orion Nebula. So I don't believe it until I see some evidence that there are in fact said giant marshmallows there.

By contrast, I have seem pretty convincing evidence that the USA exists. I have multiple times got into planes, flown over a large expanse of sea and then land, arrived in airports where American accents were common, seen signs and papers that repeatedly referred to being America, and so on. People I have met from there talk pretty convincingly and universally about their experiences growing up and living there, and it fits consistently with everything else I've seen and read. It is theoretically possible that this was all some giant stunt pulled by millions of non-Americans and a colludiing world population just to trick us, but I think the odds are against it. Similarly, I may just be living a total hallucination, and in reality am just some brain-blob living in a vat somewhere like the Matrix, or even an artificial intelligence created by someone or something else, but until I see some reason to believe that, I'll favour the more plausible version.

Hence, I believe America exists. I cannot be 100% certain, but I am about as certain as it is possible to be given that I'm limited to sense-data.

To use another example, I think Australia is in a housing bubble that will eventually burst. I am far less certain of this than the USA's existence, but I have enough conviction to wager a reasonable sum of money on it. Maybe my belief level here is about 80% or 90%, rather than 99.999%. The reason is that it fits the pattern of every other bubble I've ever seen, read about, or lived through, and they all ended the same. However, I have also seen the uncertainty in markets, so I know sometimes they do something different and I might be wrong. So I am confident, but not certain, that this bubble exists and will end.

That's my system of belief-formation - weight the strength of my belief to the preponderance of evidence. It should now be pretty obvious why I and other non-believers don't believe - we start from a position of not believing something without convincing evidence, and so far, there does not seem to be convincing evidence that god exists. And at the same time, there is a gigantic weight of evidence that humans are gullible, irrational, instinct-driven animals that have a tendency to over-infer agency and meaning where none exist (effectively, seeing patterns in random data), overrate their intelligence and ability to draw conclusions, believe things on the basis of emotions rather than facts and evidence, and tend to (as a group) follow authority and their parents without much questioning.

Why do you think people overwhelmingly adopt the religion of their parents rather than a separate religion? If weight of evidence or reasoned arguments were how people formed their belief, then there would be as many muslims per capita in Japan and Rome as there are in Riyadh, and christians would be plentiful in Iran. Why do you think people in the past believed that the fire and wind were gods, or that there were multiple gods? Why do you think that religious belief is inversely correlated with IQ and the level of education? Why do you think people are superstitious, and belief in evidence-free nonsense like astrology, dowsing, palm-reading and the paranormal? These are all powerful pieces of evidence that people are prone to irrational and nonsensical belief systems in the face of uncertainty, and that such beliefs propagate from generation to generation through parent-child indoctrination. It's not a huge leap to conclude that religious belief follows a similar pattern.

There are further reasons to cling onto belief. Cognitive dissonance - it is hard to give up an important belief system you have moulded your life, family, and friends around. It is hard to admit you might have been totally wrong. Look at communists after 1990, how many true communist believers do you know of who renounced their views then, and said "you know, capitalism was better all along. It's flawed but communism is a lot worse and this proves it's a failure. I'm changing my mind"? Almost none did that. Instead they made up excuses. So even if you could provide compelling evidence that religious belief is irrational, most believers would just go into denial rather than upend their entire world view.

Secondly, the notion that there is no god, no divine justice, no afterlife where you get rewarded for good behaviour and punished for sins, is quite scary to many. It means the world is in some ways a cold, uncaring, unfair place. Many poor people act good, but suffer and die young, or get killed in wars or by tyrants or disease, and it serves no purpose at all (or even serves evil purposes). If there is no after-life and god, this means they died in vain. Meanwhile some demonstrably evil people achieve success, power, wealth, women, luxury, and status. This sticks in the craw of most normal people. Believing in an all-powerful god who will judge us in the afterlife is a comforting belief to many, when faced with the indifferent nature of the world and the evil aspects of human nature.

My question in return is twofold. Firstly, how do you form your beliefs? Weight of evidence, like me? Or some other method, and if so, what? Secondly, even if you form it on weight of evidence, and simply disagree in your assessment of what evidence is there, how can you be 100% certain in your belief? You see that's something puzzling for any logical thinker - religious believers aren't 90% confident that god exists, or even 99% confident. They are almost all 100% sure god exists. What evidence could there possibly be so that you can be 100% sure?

Pretty sure this is the greatest religion-related post ever made. Unfortunately, I fear it will fall of deaf ears - for many of the reasons you list in your post.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Well, call me strange but I believe in something if I have evidence it exists. I don't believe in something without evidence, then wait until some evidence comes around to prove that it doesn't exist.

For example, I have no evidence the tooth fairy exists. When I was young I did, I was lied to by my parents that it came along dispensing money for teeth that fall out. So I pretended to be asleep, and when my parents came in to put the money under the pillow, I woke up and caught them red-handed. I was sceptical in the first place, but this confirmed it. The evidence contradicted what I had been told.

By contrast, I have seem pretty convincing evidence that the USA exists. I have multiple times got into planes, flown over a large expanse of sea and then land, arrived in airports where American accents were common, seen signs and papers that repeatedly referred to being America, and so on. People I have met from there talk pretty convincingly and universally about their experiences growing up and living there, and it fits consistently with everything else I've seen and read. It is theoretically possible that this was all some giant stunt pulled by millions of non-Americans and a colludiing world population just to trick us, but I think the odds are against it. Similarly, I may just be living a total hallucination, and in reality am just some brain-blob living in a vat somewhere like the Matrix, or even an artificial intelligence created by someone or something else, but until I see some reason to believe that, I'll favour the more plausible version.

Hence, I believe America exists. I cannot be 100% certain, but I am about as certain as it is possible to be given that I'm limited to sense-data.

To use another example, I think Australia is in a housing bubble that will eventually burst. I am far less certain of this than the USA's existence, but I have enough conviction to wager a reasonable sum of money on it. Maybe my belief level here is about 80% or 90%, rather than 99.999%. The reason is that it fits the pattern of every other bubble I've ever seen, read about, or lived through, and they all ended the same. However, I have also seen the uncertainty in markets, so I know sometimes they do something different and I might be wrong. So I am confident, but not certain, that this bubble exists and will end.

Secondly, the notion that there is no god, no divine justice, no afterlife where you get rewarded for good behaviour and punished for sins, is quite scary to many. It means the world is in some ways a cold, uncaring, unfair place. Many poor people act good, but suffer and die young, or get killed in wars or by tyrants or disease, and it serves no purpose at all (or even serves evil purposes). If there is no after-life and god, this means they died in vain. Meanwhile some demonstrably evil people achieve success, power, wealth, women, luxury, and status. This sticks in the craw of most normal people. Believing in an all-powerful god who will judge us in the afterlife is a comforting belief to many, when faced with the indifferent nature of the world and the evil aspects of human nature.

My question in return is twofold. Firstly, how do you form your beliefs? Weight of evidence, like me? Or some other method, and if so, what? Secondly, even if you form it on weight of evidence, and simply disagree in your assessment of what evidence is there, how can you be 100% certain in your belief? You see that's something puzzling for any logical thinker - religious believers aren't 90% confident that god exists, or even 99% confident. They are almost all 100% sure god exists. What evidence could there possibly be so that you can be 100% sure?

I have deleted some of your content just to save some space, but saved what I consider relevant to my response. Just a full disclosure.
Last question first. I don't think most people are 100% certain on the subject of God. If you got them alone, I suspect most believers would admit that. I am not 100% certain and have stated that time and again.
How do I form my beliefs on the subject? Personal experience, most of which would mean little or nothing to someone else. Hence, I don't try to "sell" my beliefs.
Take for example your opinion on the housing bubble in Australia. You are reasonably certain it will bust based on your personal experience. Myself, having no knowledge of that market, have read nothing about it as it is of no interest to me, have no real opinion. I could however, just for the sake of argument, dispute your opinion. I've never been to Australia, never seen anything but a picture of film of it, don't know anyone who has traveled there. Should my opinon trump your personal experience? Does such a place even exist? Seems like a silly question, doesn't it? Yet it seems to me that is just what the atheist does in reference to God, argue for the sake of agrument. If the existance of a God is of no real interest to the atheist, and they have no personal experience with a God, then why all the moaning and groaning?
I still stand by my claim that religion is the real issue for atheists and they just can't seem to understand that the exisitance of a Creator and religion don't nessecarily walk hand in hand.
 
Quote from Kassz007:

Pretty sure this is the greatest religion-related post ever made. Unfortunately, I fear it will fall of deaf ears - for many of the reasons you list in your post. [/QUOTE------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes. Very good post from Cutten.
 
Cutten -- in answer to your question, yes I am always intellectually honest and when I am wrong, I have no problem admitting mistakes. I have done so a few times on ET.

But --- are you willing to accept that some of the the greatest minds we have in science acknowledge that our universe appears designed.

Do you understand that in order to counter the design argument... some scientists are now speculating there must be almost infinite universes.

I will start you off with a simple quote...


"Bernard Carr is an astronomer at Queen Mary University, London. Unlike Martin Rees, he does not enjoy wooden-panelled rooms in his day job, but inhabits an office at the top of a concrete high-rise, the windows of which hang as if on the edge of the universe. He sums up the multiverse predicament: “Everyone has their own reason why they’re keen on the multiverse. But what it comes down to is that there are these physical constants that can’t be explained. It seems clear that there is fine tuning, and you either need a tuner, who chooses the constants so that we arise, or you need a multiverse, and then we have to be in one of the universes where the constants are right for life.”

But which comes first, tuner or tuned? Who or what is leading the dance? Isn’t conjuring up a multiverse to explain already outlandish fine-tuning tantamount to leaping out of the physical frying pan and into the metaphysical fire?

Unsurprisingly, the multiverse proposal has provoked ideological opposition. In 2005, the New York Times published an opinion piece by a Roman Catholic cardinal, Christoph Schönborn, in which he called it “an abdication of human intelligence.” That comment led to a slew of letters lambasting the claim that the multiverse is a hypothesis designed to avoid “the overwhelming evidence for purpose and design found in modern science.” But even if you don’t go along with the prince of the church on that, he had another point which does resonate with many physicists, regardless of their belief. The idea that the multiverse solves the fine-tuning of the universe by effectively declaring that everything is possible is in itself not a scientific explanation at all: if you allow yourself to hypothesize any number of worlds, you can account for anything but say very little about how or why."

http://www.philosophypress.co.uk/?p=137
 
Quote from jem:


But --- are you willing to accept that some of the the greatest minds we have in science acknowledge that our universe appears designed.

Do you understand that in order to counter the design argument... some scientists are now speculating there must be almost infinite universes.

I will start you off with a simple quote...


So the entire reason you believe there is a god is because the universe appears fine tuned? That is the evidence you have gathered, evaluated, and based a conclusion on?
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

My question in return is twofold. Firstly, how do you form your beliefs? Weight of evidence, like me?
No, not like you. I would require evidence to be taken more carefully.

I would suggest you examine more closely reasons why you think you have anything like a weight of evidence for a God in the first place.
Comparing weight of evidence for the existence of America as being in any way similar or even representative to a weight of evidence for your religious belief , is just plain silly.

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Secondly, even if you form it on weight of evidence, and simply disagree in your assessment of what evidence is there, how can you be 100% certain in your belief? You see that's something puzzling for any logical thinker - religious believers aren't 90% confident that god exists, or even 99% confident. They are almost all 100% sure god exists. What evidence could there possibly be so that you can be 100% sure?

I should think posts like yours being wrong in so many ways, go toward making quite a few people 100% sure there is no God..
 
Quote from CaptainObvious:

If the laws of physics can allow one thing to begin from nothing, then why not another, and another, and another? You're almost getting to the reality, which is, God and the Universe are one in the same. If you can get past your contempt for organized religion, you'll see with clearer eyes. Having done that myself, I know how difficult that is, but it is a hurdle which must be jumped to have any chance to see things as they really are.

The laws of physics do not allow for a thing or another thing, or another thing again to begin from nothing, especially when those things are nothing to do with the laws of physics, but are mere symptoms of unbridled pretence.
The universe is defined and exists. Calling the universe God is as much use as calling the universe Gilbert.

I think one reason people generally decry religion and its claims, whether they define themselves as atheists or not, is because religious belief is massivly disproportionate and way overemphasized in all forms of state and public life. Which in the end , is not and never has been in the country's best interests.

It is nothing to do with contempt for organized religion, but is to do with calling out the abundance of preposterous and absurd religious claims as bullshit, for it is actually quite easy to see that is just what they really are.
 
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