That surely is a certainty!
Are you still chasing the certainty?
- Thread starter Trader Scofield
- Start date
That surely is a certainty!
I don't agree. It depends how you use that word.
If you say there are certainties in the market it might be nonsense, but even then it is not certain that it is nonsense. Because there are some certainties in the market.
If you want to become a successful trader you should chase certainty, although you will probably never reach it. The drive to certainty will motivate you to eternal studying and improving your trading. Try to approach certainty as close as possible. The journey to become a trader is a never ending proces of trial and error.
A good trader does not need certainty. High probablity can make him already very rich. And high probability can be calculated statistically, like a kind of fake certainty.
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Good topic! The word you're looking for is actually probability. While just another model, using statistics may sometimes help clear some of the mixed signals provided by the market.
My own thoughts on this, is that it uniquely depends on the market! If the market goes cleanly up and down in a zig-zag fashion every month, you can use that "signal" almost perfectly. What i mean by cleanly, is that the volatility is almost constant.
But most markets do not move like that (daily and below TF), but move with varying volatility, more like Pareto distribution than Gaussian. So, as the thread author said, one needs to take that into account in order to find something to be relied upon.
If you don't have anything, you shouldn't be trading, it'd just be like pure gambling, with all the odds stacked against you unless you plan to buy&hold indefinately. Second best option would be to use monthly timeframe, which may sometimes show such clean price action, but where to enter within 1-2 months will need to be investigated and you need infinite patience to trade it. Probably the money you make will not be for you but for your grandchildren
.
My own thoughts on this, is that it uniquely depends on the market! If the market goes cleanly up and down in a zig-zag fashion every month, you can use that "signal" almost perfectly. What i mean by cleanly, is that the volatility is almost constant.
But most markets do not move like that (daily and below TF), but move with varying volatility, more like Pareto distribution than Gaussian. So, as the thread author said, one needs to take that into account in order to find something to be relied upon.
If you don't have anything, you shouldn't be trading, it'd just be like pure gambling, with all the odds stacked against you unless you plan to buy&hold indefinately. Second best option would be to use monthly timeframe, which may sometimes show such clean price action, but where to enter within 1-2 months will need to be investigated and you need infinite patience to trade it. Probably the money you make will not be for you but for your grandchildren
.
L
lovethetrade
There's your answer right here. Good traders aren't preoccupied with certainty, they're too busy trading price movements, accepting the 25-50% of losing trades and making consistent profits.
In terms of system development, I guess one is always searching for trades that should receive the largest amount of scaling where the probability is very high.
Thanks for basically just proving my point....
Maybe I did not explain well what I meant about certainties. Instead of "Using the word "certainty" in trading is just nonsense." it should be "Using the word "certainty" in trading is just useless."
Certainties are not exploitable in trading as they are known to many people. So people know the outcome as the outcome is certain. Trading exists because of uncertainties. These uncertainties make that people have different opinions about the outcome and that creates the supply and demand. Some go long while others go short at the same time because of uncertainties..
So certainties are not nonsense but useless in trading. Ignore everything that is certain in trading as it is impossible to make money from it. Nonsense and useless have a completely different meaning. So I think I did not really prove your point.
The hell they're not - that is all they are preoccupied with - for that is all they can lean on
Unless you really believe consistent trading is solely by luck - then there must be consistencies some damn where
Otherwise I am one of the luckiest mf'ers in the entire world - and I know a damn sight better - I am not
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I could lay out specifically what the certainties are - but I'm curious where Y'all take this
My agenda is to get Ya thinking.., not do the thinking for Ya
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Aside
One poster used the word trading
Another used the word mkt
Make up yer mind which you are referencing
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Carry on
RN
I am on the same page with RN, we all want certainty in doing anything, especially trading, it just the matter of being able to reach that level of certainty or not, which pretty much determine the stability and consistency of earning in trading .
What about the opposite, how easy it is to accomplish uncertainty or direct losses? Very easy! Just buy high sell low all day with as much leverage as you can. Very soon you'll be out of money. If not losses, at least the tactic will bring uncertainty!
So there's no glory (or more importantly benefits!) in striving for uncertainty. Instead, trading should use any means to bring some form of certainty of profits, otherwise, it's a self-defeating activity that should be ceased.
However, this discussion becomes endless if certainty is meant as 100% guarantee, of which there are none in most of the trading world. Discussion around definitions, not content.
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@Simples, i kind of did the 100% guarantee thing on my "the nut trade in forex" , "the nut trade in stock" thread, but just a small sample of 10-30 trades on each, and they all turn out good that i did say upfront 100% sure. So that is a little content that i can refer to out there in the open for now, and the type of certainty that we all are interest in is absolute certainty, and what i was chasing with everything i had is this type. It may not occur frequently, but it is there, just have to have enough patience in the middle of the stressful trading environment to participate and thoroughly enough of R&D to see through all the noise to see this type of certainty.