Are you still chasing the certainty?

[Simples]

@Simples, i kind of did the 100% guarantee thing on my "the nut trade in forex" , "the nut trade in stock" thread, but just a small sample of 10-30 trades on each, and they all turn out good that i did say upfront 100% sure. So that is a little content that i can refer to out there in the open for now, and the type of certainty that we all are interest in is absolute certainty, and what i was chasing with everything i had is this type. It may not occur frequently, but it is there, just have to have enough patience in the middle of the stressful trading environment to participate and thoroughly enough of R&D to see through all the noise to see this type of certainty.

I don't really care but I checked out your stock thread. Honestly, I can't really see the brilliance of shorting FB during this bull-run, and don't really see the decline of price around 56-58-62 with short take profit 52-49 at/after the date 19.12.2013 either. If you then claim that you didn't get filled at those levels and needed to execute, then you're in the same boat as the rest of us retailers, in some degree of uncertainty and having to manage that.

Claiming certainty without any rationale, stats or even specifications is just words, not independently verifiable, and not in any way actionable. When you do it while actively fighting the main trend..., well, should speak for itself really. "Nut trades", good troll thread material.

I think I do get your tactic though: fade fast movers for mean-reverting action. Just not my cup of tea, which would be more in line with trend is your friend. Such "signals" will be short-lived, require needlesharp execution and would be a disservice to try to peddle to innocents.

Also: Isn't this post (w/defunct links) against ET policy and attempt at advertisement?

 

[lovethetrade]

The hell they're not - that is all they are preoccupied with - for that is all they can lean on

Unless you really believe consistent trading is solely by luck - then there must be consistencies some damn where

RN

What's a certainty anyway?... trades don't end on initial execution. There may be entry points that are certain to continue in the anticipated direction without getting stopped out for a period but its what you do after that that makes you money.

Good traders aren't pre-occupied with 100% certain entry points otherwise they'd sit around all day waiting for that perfect trade that never comes while others have made $5K for the day. Being preoccupied with certainty would cripple most successful traders.

I agree with MTrader's point, the best trades are when there's less certainty but the signals are there for the astute trader, these create more trading opportunities (signals) and they end up turning into significant directional moves.

The traders looking for the perfect trade are usually the ones left wondering WTF just happened, how come I didnt get on that, I was waiting for the certainty

 

[Trader Scofield]

Easy,easy, everybody. It's useless to discuss this question. If you really understand trading, you will understand this topic. I came here just for my blog. I write a lot of articles, it contains my years of efforts ,but nobody read it except me. I want more visitors. but I am not allowed to put my blog links here, so this place is nonsense to me.

Note:
I am not a saler. A real trader should profit through market, not selling the books,software, training courses or looking for clients everywhere...

 

[marketdecoder]

I gonna add a bit of visualization to this certainty discussion, so it can be better stated. Let's say: assessing certainty in trading via analysis (TA and fundamental) is like playing black jack where you get to see the card first (determine the clarity level of the certainty) before placing bet . Depend on the clarity that you can see with your certainty, on higher end it can be 18 , 19, 20, 21, black jack.
With 18, 19 , 20 you should be more cautious on placing bet. With 21, and black jack, you can think of all in OR whatever you want. It is very nice to see ahead 21, black jack , i can tell you that. So that is what i can say about certainty, and if i can say 100% sure ahead, and correct many time like that, then it is a glimpse into the ability to see 21, black jack to truly be able to afford bigger bet and still stay on safe side. Waiting is part of the game regardless it is 18 or black jack, but seeing clear which is which, is what determine the class of your analysis skill level where execution part is a department of its own, but the more sync it is to the analysis, the more consistent trader will be in making and keeping that profit.

 

[Mtrader]

Let's say: assessing certainty in trading via analysis (TA and fundamental) is like playing black jack

I don't agree. Mathematically you can compare them, but 1 element has a fundamental impact on the outcome: human interaction.
And this human interaction can change everything. But not in blackjack.
No matter the behavior of the blackjack players , the cards will not change; they will stay what they are so probability will not change.
In trading it is completely different: human interaction can change prices, and thus alter the already calculated purely mathematical probabilities by adding an element called behavioral finance. When prices change, probabilities change too.
In trading probabilities can be improved significantly more than in blackjack.

 

[slugar]

I don't agree. Mathematically you can compare them, but 1 element has a fundamental impact on the outcome: human interaction.
And this human interaction can change everything. But not in blackjack.
No matter the behavior of the blackjack players , the cards will not change; they will stay what they are so probability will not change.
In trading it is completely different: human interaction can change prices, and thus alter the already calculated purely mathematical probabilities by adding an element called behavioral finance. When prices change, probabilities change too.
In trading probabilities can be improved significantly more than in blackjack.

The only thing we can be certain of is that we will follow our plan to the letter and certainty has nothing to do with what the market will do or how often we will make a profit or take a loss.

 

[Mtrader]

The only thing we can be certain of is that we will follow our plan to the letter and certainty has nothing to do with what the market will do or how often we will make a profit or take a loss.

No, we can end up break even too. Which is no profit and no loss. You missed 33% of the probabilities. In trading that can be lethal when using probabilities.

Even without having or following a plan. And many even have problems to follow their plan.

 

[Cswim63]

What is certainty? And why do I need it anyway?

 

[Redneck]

What is certainty?

For the purposes of trading:

Simple Definition of certainty
the state of being or feeling certain

Definition of certain
assured in mind or action

Personally I would replace the word or.., with and - in both definitions


** source = Merriam Webster

Many try to correlate certainty to the mkt..., a trade's outcome..., trying to know the unknowable

Get over it

And why do I need it anyway?

How else do you think consistency is achieved - luck

RN

 

[Cswim63]

Yes. I see. When you say assured I can identify with that. Without being confident, even if my analysis is correct, I'm going to make a mistake guaranteed. I'm pretty sure the market tells me which way it wants to go, if I'm patient, pay attention and stay out of my head.