Are you still chasing the certainty?

[Trader Scofield]

Looking for certainty in the uncertain foreign exchange market, which is the immutable laws to success in the foreign exchange. What is certainty? Reasonable money management could lead to the certainty of long-term trading results. There is no self evident truth in foreign exchange transactions. Even if some of the recognized trading rules, it is difficult to get your conviction without your inspection.

Breakthrough is one of the recognized trade methods, but when the price breaks, nobody can be entirely sure this is a real breakthrough. If you choose a breakthrough, then you need to adhere to the breakthrough rules, if you arbitrarily change the rules, you must not get a certain results.

With the accumulation of trading experience, you will develop a unique definition of breakthrough. But there is still a great part of breakthrough which you think is real is actually false breakout. However, you can’t change the definition of true breakthrough arbitrarily due to this, otherwise you will get uncertain trading results because of your inconsistent trading behavior. Traders often make such mistakes as strategy inconsistent with behavior. The main external factor is the random reinforcement characteristics of market, which means you may not make money even if you are right, you may not lose money even if you are wrong.

 

[Trader Scofield]

how to add the picture inside the article not but the attachment

 

[Big AAPL]

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/test-thread.301392/page-2#post-4308097

 

[DirectMarketAccess]

Using the word "certainty" in trading is just nonsense.

 

[Trader Scofield]

Using the word "certainty" in trading is just nonsense.

but so many people couldn't realized this

 

[Trader Scofield]

 

[Trader Scofield]

th

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/test-thread.301392/page-2#post-4308097

i made it. thanks

 

[Redneck]

Using the word "certainty" in trading is just nonsense.

Stating above..., you've obviously have no clue about what it takes to trade successfully

The "certaintees" are all we have to lean on..., all we have to ensure we are not trading/ operating as a random variable in an otherwise totally uncertain environment - the absolute only means by which we can keep our heads screwed on straight throughout

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but so many people couldn't realized this

OP

You started off correctly with your opening post - then agreed with this person's post

You're backsliding

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The crap that gets posted around here that prompts me to think wtf

RN

 

[Trader Scofield]

Stating above..., you've obviously have no clue about what it takes to trade successfully

The "certaintees" are all we have to lean on..., all we have to ensure we are not trading/ operating as a random variable in an otherwise totally uncertain environment - the absolute only means by which we can keep our heads screwed on straight throughout

============



OP

You started off correctly with your opening post - then agreed with this person's post

You're backsliding

===========



The crap that gets posted around here that prompts me to think wtf

RN

there is not only you can make money in the market. ok? are there certainty in the market?
The market is uncertain. Is it wrong to say certainty nonsense? but how to get the certainty in the uncertain market? build a rule. The rule will help you to get the certain, the premise is to insist your rules, otherwise you will not get the results you wanted

 

[marketdecoder]

This is an intriguing topic that is in line with my own chasing for this certainty the past 15 years in FX market. In the end, as of today , i can say that yes, there is such thing as certainty in FX market (that i did prove a bit with a sample of 10 calls on my "the nut trade in Forex" that i say upfront 100% sure how market and it all did). There is such logic in market based on technical analysis that can lead to this absolute certainty though it cost me a lot of money to fully understand it (after understand all the uncertain noise within this signal).

Seeing through all the noise to reach the consistent certainty is the hard part, and once you see it, just practice to trade with that consistent certainty Alone , then you will have the habit of just trading with this certainty, then no doubt can ever override it (whether it is a bad trade due to psychological noise or just a honest mistake) . Market noise (in signal analysis) and psychological noise ( stress, fear, disturbing event in life) are what make the majority of uncertainty , where highly focus and discipline with thorough R&D based on the RIGHT type of logic that can give you such absolute certainty after thorough back testing and some good intuition, you will reach consistent certainty.

What make trading harder is that a trader is also under the influence of psychological noise that can override a certainty in logic even after you are 100% sure of it (like you don't have enough patience to wait for it, or just being hard headed not closing out an honest mistake trade, etc) . So, you can have a 100% sure game plan, but is your psychological part well trained and highly disciplined enough to just follow this certainty consistently? that is another equally important part to work on, but for now, i can say Logically, there is such a thing as certainty in FX market as my contributing post to this topic.