hehe would not submit this in a paper, but it is a fun way to test a hypothesis or ask a question. In this case, the question is “how good are self-reporting price action traders at predicting the market based upon price action”.
Are you good at price action and technical analysis?
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Maybe the question should be, are there patterns that have an edge?hehe would not submit this in a paper, but it is a fun way to test a hypothesis or ask a question. In this case, the question is “how good are self-reporting price action traders at predicting the market based upon price action”.
Do your stats and find out.
There are boatloads of setups out there...
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...st-right-here-baby.335635/page-6#post-4944529
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And the answer is; Yes.
But beating the index, mmmm, difficult.
If you follow the index, can you beat it? No.
Maybe can if geared or play speccy stocks. Dunno.
Not very good. But your exercise with the next 5m bar is lame. Why would you think predicting a random event is going to be better than random?hehe would not submit this in a paper, but it is a fun way to test a hypothesis or ask a question. In this case, the question is “how good are self-reporting price action traders at predicting the market based upon price action”.
An underlying flaw in your reasoning is that prediction is necessary when using technical data to trade.
If a cat is in the compromised position of needing to base a trade on 'predicting' eg guessing the direction of the next candle, is that an optimal prospect for success over the lifetime of a career?
Cursory reading on price action, for example candlestick patterns overwhelmingly shows claims of probabilities for "continued direction", or "reversal of direction" for subsequent movement of price which does not translate into "the next bar will close in a continued direction".
That said, here's our boy Bulkowski with his take on some of the candlestick patterns that he's tested for us. 'believe none of what you see and but half that you hear.' Do your own stats. Rising three methods is a fave here, fwiw.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...st-right-here-baby.335635/page-8#post-4993294
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People clearly believe that it’s not random and that you can use price action to make trades (which are bets on future prices). The quiz I made is extremely simple in that it merely asks if, based upon what you’re seeing in the chart, you think prices will be higher or lower.
You would think that if a tool was a source of edge, you’d get at least 50% of the questions right.
You constantly leave out one LARGE detail. "...if prices will be higher or lower...ON THE VERY NEXT BAR", lol.
Those who trade like that, Stand and Deliver. lol * crickets *
A meaningless exercise.
To put stock in this sideshow folly as an accurate representation of the effectiveness of well executed Price Action trading is the fault of the fool who does so.
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That sums it up!
Many an ETer say that price is not random which is 100% nonsense.
There is randomness and there are probabilities.
If it were not random, then tell us what the next bar will do, anytime, anywhere. Simple!
Are you calling this Price Action trading, Mick?