are we in a recession?
- Thread starter brokerboy
- Start date
I'm a little broke at the moment, but my prospects are bright
they just loaned me money for a new car
just between you and me, I don't know how I am going to pay for it
but a new car could attract a new girlfriend
and she may come from a rich family
and that could be the break I am looking for
Agreed there. I believe in charity for those that can't provide for themselves (sick, children, elderly).
Some thoughts about Japan, and why America is different.
Japans external debt (held by foreigners) is roughly 650 billion, or 5% of it's total sovereign debt. On the asset side, the BoJ holds over 3 Trillion in foreign securities. That means if foreigners dumped Japans debt, the BoJ could step in and defend the Yen - several times over - through the sale of foreign assets and the purchase of Yen. Because of that balance of foreign assets to foreign liabilities, Japan is a net creditor.
America is the opposite. Roughly 5.4 Trillion of the national debt is held by foreigners (33%). The Federal Reserve, as far as I can tell, holds only ~700 Billion in foreign assets and gold, on it's balance sheet. That means if the FED continues to debase, there's no "dry powder" to intervene with and buy the dollar, if and when there's mass flight from US Treasury markets (and out of the USD). America is net debtor.
Net debtors, from recent history, seem to have trouble refinancing their debt at 90-130% debt to GDP. Capital markets balk, and then the shtf. Japan never had that problem because it's foreign assets far exceeded it's foreign liabilities. If the FED had ~11 Trillion in foreign assets on its books, theoretically, we could run up the national debt to 32 Trillion dollars, without worrying about a dollar collapse (assuming the current proportion of foreign ownership of US Treasuries remained constant). But that's not the case. What's interesting, is that the FED could have ran the exact same mercantile policy as Japan and China - printing dollars and accumulating foreign assets, instead of toxic mortgage paper. The net effect would be the same on the USD (debasement) but the FED would have more of an anchor to back-stop deficit spending and the USD. Of course, our banks would have crashed. And that's the only difference. It was about saving private banks, at the expense of the currency.
Actions speak louder than words. Western Democracies have gone broke, for a reason. The reason is the Boomers voted themselves largesse for decades, and turned a blind eye while politicians gave what was left to Corporations who shipped the economy to China. They, like the politicians they voted for, were greedy and stupid. They pissed it away. Next, comes the day of reckoning.
Deep down, people are ignorant and vote for a free lunch, every time. We help each other out on an individual basis because we can see cause and effect. We vote for the other guys lunch, because most people are stupid. They don't understand how enriching themselves with handouts now, screws the entire country 10, 20 and even 30 years down the road. Alot of it comes down to diffusion of responsibility. If I take a handout here or there, it's a drop in the bucket. If I vote for a handout here or there, it's only one vote. Makes no difference. Except everyone thinks that way.
Achilles,
Well said. I am 26 and know damn well the day is near. Btw f*ck glenn beck and those conservative trolls. And, because everyone thinks it, f#ck the dems for their waste.
We shall retire in 3rd world countries or stay in the states and have a constantly lower quality of life at a higher cost.
It's crazy because I speak with people from china and vietnam, and they have it made here man. The "capitalist" lifestyle, freedom, great govt. Yeah its better than their homeland, but for me, in my life, it appears to have reached that point of "fux it, whos got the most guns"
Well said. I am 26 and know damn well the day is near. Btw f*ck glenn beck and those conservative trolls. And, because everyone thinks it, f#ck the dems for their waste.
We shall retire in 3rd world countries or stay in the states and have a constantly lower quality of life at a higher cost.
It's crazy because I speak with people from china and vietnam, and they have it made here man. The "capitalist" lifestyle, freedom, great govt. Yeah its better than their homeland, but for me, in my life, it appears to have reached that point of "fux it, whos got the most guns"
That will take you infinitely far. Politicians can continually redefine who's poor and who "needs a hand." They talk as if it's a small group that needs short-term help to get back on their feet. In reality, there are multiple generations of dole suckers, and it's only getting worse.
This is one of many examples:
http://news.yahoo.com/report-social-security-lax-disability-claims-080001597.html