Are we going to shit?

[NCC1701]

Monetary and fiscal policy are so important, and this is a new era. Things ARE different with no roadmap to make guesses from. If I had to make a guess then trend down next 6 months.

potential factors on downside

1) Market cap to GDP is still high, as high as it was at the peak in 2000> QE really jacked it up, the party is over

2) Fed policy is in uncharted territory, they printed the shit out of cash in QE covid and now have to raise rates. New policies with huge balance sheet, the government has been loaning huge sums of money to itself and the president pretends inflation is all supply chain (and wants MORE spending), it isn't, so now what? Stocks will have to readjust to this new reality just as they did in the monetary shift in 2008. Is the good news that stocks will ultimately have to inflate as well longer term? I think so, but for now I guess rotation into treasuries as the adjustment takes effect, I can't think of where the sellers are re-investing and it ain't real estate

 

[TheDawn]

What's misleading is, if any credit is given to a President (don't know why really), then the prior President should get some for leaving things in better shape than they came in - if they did.

But when it is a change in parties, extremely biased politics can't let folks do that.

Yes and many presidents had high unemployment rates during his administration because the previous president fucked it up and he had to spend his entire time in the office to fix it, examples: Kennedy, Reagan, Obama and then when lucky bastards like Lyndon Johnson goes into the office, he just naturally inherits a strong economy. Imagine if Kennedy hadn't got assassinated, the US economy would've been even stronger.

 

[SoyUnGanador]

Drop, spike up, slammed down.

This was the best call for sure, bar none.

 

[Cuddles]

very misleading graphic, averaging over trumps whole presidency includes initial covid shutdown. without that likely he would have the best or close to best average

and if my aunt had balls...

 

[alistera]

Or have we seen the worst?
Place your bets

Do you know what return a Sovereign (country) requires to balance its books, will just tell you because life is too short, 150-200%pa, as the years and decades move forward if that sovereign can squeeze more out while putting less in it's all good, depending where you sit in that highly unbalanced equation.

Which is why every now and then events come along that make life just that little more complex as people complain about lifestyle standards, like inflation ramping up to unimaginable levels, at some point this does all go south, is that today, this year, this decade, this century, maybe, but never underestimate the need, desire, will to create that 150-200%pa.

Which then begs one very simple question, is it possible for an individual or a family to create Sovereign grade returns, sure but you probably wouldn't want to as the lifestyle choices are unique plus today you need the fintech, it's a prerequisite, a billionaire is created by compounding this level every year for a couple of decades, a new and exciting technology magnifies that by 10x such as your Twitter and Google billionaires.

Via via via get wealth management information about this, when each day, each week, each month it becomes fractionally worse people absorb it as the new normal, one of the entities was telling me a story about someone being head over heels with a 6%pa return, they advised them how to get 15-20%pa via a multi-decade fund as they knew inflation was coming down the line, their enthusiasm was a bit lacking.

Sovereign see them as low hanging fruit with all this being lost on them trying to survive day to day, fair due most people are blank these days due to the factors of recent years, you can carve out your own little piece of history but in the end, but you are still part of that number and it's quite hard not to be, you can work in a shop or be a top consultant earning $100,000s, it's completely irrelevant because at some point it will all reconcile back to 150-200%, continent level is worse.

There's really no point asking how this all works, some noob will then say "but if you can't explain simply enough you don't know what you are doing", but how do you simply explain to someone they are designed to be poor no matter how wealthy they are, if not in money then in time and quality of life which have seen too many times, the institutions today are having it handed to them by the Sovereigns who need that capital more, it's a new dynamic the past years, when do people stop chasing, apparently never, while also never knowing all those losses caused chasing whatever it is drive that 150-200%, the circle of life!

Wasn't it Sun Tzu that said, never stop an enemy making their own mistake, who can't love that.

 

[KCalhoun]

Do you know what return a Sovereign (country) requires to balance its books, will just tell you because life is too short, 150-200%pa, as the years and decades move forward if that sovereign can squeeze more out while putting less in it's all good, depending where you sit in that highly unbalanced equation.

Which is why every now and then events come along that make life just that little more complex as people complain about lifestyle standards, like inflation ramping up to unimaginable levels, at some point this does all go south, is that today, this year, this decade, this century, maybe, but never underestimate the need, desire, will to create that 150-200%pa.

Which then begs one very simple question, is it possible for an individual or a family to create Sovereign grade returns, sure but you probably wouldn't want to as the lifestyle choices are unique plus today you need the fintech, it's a prerequisite, a billionaire is created by compounding this level every year for a couple of decades, a new and exciting technology magnifies that by 10x such as your Twitter and Google billionaires.

Via via via get wealth management information about this, when each day, each week, each month it becomes fractionally worse people absorb it as the new normal, one of the entities was telling me a story about someone being head over heels with a 6%pa return, they advised them how to get 15-20%pa via a multi-decade fund as they knew inflation was coming down the line, their enthusiasm was a bit lacking.

Sovereign see them as low hanging fruit with all this being lost on them trying to survive day to day, fair due most people are blank these days due to the factors of recent years, you can carve out your own little piece of history but in the end, but you are still part of that number and it's quite hard not to be, you can work in a shop or be a top consultant earning $100,000s, it's completely irrelevant because at some point it will all reconcile back to 150-200%, continent level is worse.

There's really no point asking how this all works, some noob will then say "but if you can't explain simply enough you don't know what you are doing", but how do you simply explain to someone they are designed to be poor no matter how wealthy they are, if not in money then in time and quality of life which have seen too many times, the institutions today are having it handed to them by the Sovereigns who need that capital more, it's a new dynamic the past years, when do people stop chasing, apparently never, while also never knowing all those losses caused chasing whatever it is drive that 150-200%, the circle of life!

Wasn't it Sun Tzu that said, never stop an enemy making their own mistake, who can't love that.

I need to reread Sun Tzu's Art of War. .... classic genius

 

[Shax]

 

[TheDawn]

I need to reread Sun Tzu's Art of War. .... classic genius

Except it tells you the best strategy to win a war is just to run away. I guess that's the equivalent of stop-loss orders. LOL