Are we going to shit?

Ask Mr. Winter when he soon comes, as he knows best... :)
My grim prediction: expect some bloodbaths in few months in many countries... :-(
 
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I was expecting a sucker rally, which we had, followed by a last puke below the 52W low before another bear market rally.

Let's see tomorrow if we puke below the 52W low.
 
Seeing some next-level manipulation in the DOW lately...

Got my fingers burned this week. The rotation into value is making things interesting. Fed hikes from here are hard to figure. Institutions are spread between high yield, IG, and value/dividend names...

Wish I had better intel on fixed-income space. My pnl just turned flat for the like the last two weeks of trading (part time) because I fucked up a ratio spread and then legged into outright risk.
 
Sekiyo said:
I was expecting a sucker rally, which we had, followed by a last puke below the 52W low before another bear market rally.

Let's see tomorrow if we puke below the 52W low.
More...

52-week low? That's around 35xx on S&P! That would be a breaker-limit move! I think yer smoking the funny stuff.
 
Europe down the toilet already.
China picking up apparently.
U.S. looks like having a wage spiral problem ie. Inflation to persist.

What the Market does, dunno atm
 
This is the new normal but many are still living in a dream world that the everything bubble is just on pause as opposed to having burst. As if the Fed only hikes 50 bps in December and inflation is then solved.

500-525 for March has a 40% implied probability on Fed funds futures, up from 30% a week ago and 0% a month ago.

A rate cut late in 2023 to 450-475 is not the picture financial news is painting as we sit here at 300-325 but that is how Fed funds futures is betting. The talking heads would make you believe we are going to cut back to zero and reinflate the everything bubble.

Good time to be a trader the next few years. A passive index investor, not so much.
 
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