Are we at peak rates for T-Bills?

[engineering]

I say rates will continue upward. Given that we are currently blocking new domestic energy production, they simply can't let the dollar crash. They'd be facing torches and pitchforks.

If it's between that and cancelling funding for gender studies in Uzbekistan, that program is getting cut.

 

[Sergio123]

Now that yields are on the rise, you don't hear about the dollar dying and BRICS or any of that much. But as soon as they start easing again it all starts.

Yields are the new growth stocks. It needs to work its way up to the 30YR.

The IPO market isn't very compelling.

 

[Ironplates]

Don't forget the other QT, assets (bonds, mortgages) rolling off the balance sheet of The Fed:-

View attachment 324863

They actually have now broken below the 8T mark lol.

But look at how much further they need to go. Buckle-up buttercup.

View attachment 324864

charts look like what was done to the SPR (Strat Petro Reserve). what helped keep inflation low, our selling of the SPR or fed rate increases? was that SPR sold off to artificially keep prices from going higher, and if so, now what? Nothing like a war plus others finding a way to spike oil prices to combat the Fed's work. Am I misunderstanding some economic levers here? The Fed claims Energy prices are too volatile to consider in their analysis, until it becomes a problem.

 

[SunTrader]

charts look like what was done to the SPR (Strat Petro Reserve). what helped keep inflation low, our selling of the SPR or fed rate increases? was that SPR sold off to artificially keep prices from going higher, and if so, now what? Nothing like a war plus others finding a way to spike oil prices to combat the Fed's work. Am I misunderstanding some economic levers here? The Fed claims Energy prices are too volatile to consider in their analysis, until it becomes a problem.

SPR not as critical nowadays with all the Frack Oil onstream. We're an exporter last few years. If need be we can shut that off and keep 100%. That is if the wingnuts don't stop that from happening with all their concerns about free markets and all .... when a Dem is in the White House that is.

Same with gubmint spending. No big deal when the OrangeMan was in, or GWB, or even Ronnie Reagan himself. But Clinton, Obama or now Biden and just would you look how much we are spending!!!!!

 

[Sergio123]

SPR not as critical nowadays with all the Frack Oil onstream. We're an exporter last few years. If need be we can shut that off and keep 100%. That is if the wingnuts don't stop that from happening with all their concerns about free markets and all .... when a Dem is in the White House that is.

Same with gubmint spending. No big deal when the OrangeMan was in, or GWB, or even Ronnie Reagan himself. But Clinton, Obama or now Biden and just would you look how much we are spending!!!!!

The reality is that the USD is backed by nuclear bombs and military strength. It's represented by the leadership.

Yellen and Biden have to pay more to borrow money. That's just how it is.

The Dems may be able to ease enough and hold rates down as much as possible through the 2024 elections, but then rates are taking off.

 

[SunTrader]

The reality is that the USD is backed by nuclear bombs and military strength. It's represented by the leadership.

Yellen and Biden have to pay more to borrow money. That's just how it is.

The Dems may be able to ease enough and hold rates down as much as possible through the 2024 elections, but then rates are taking off.

THE reality is none of know what happens after the elections ... till after the elections.

 

[Ironplates]

SPR not as critical nowadays with all the Frack Oil onstream. We're an exporter last few years. If need be we can shut that off and keep 100%. That is if the wingnuts don't stop that from happening with all their concerns about free markets and all .... when a Dem is in the White House that is.

Same with gubmint spending. No big deal when the OrangeMan was in, or GWB, or even Ronnie Reagan himself. But Clinton, Obama or now Biden and just would you look how much we are spending!!!!!

this was very useful insight. we're an exporter...did not know. thanks for helping me understand some of these levers. for greater personal sanity at the very least.

 

[SunTrader]

Another reason why I am not too concerned, relatively speaking, ATM - here is the EIA weekly Petroleum Stocks Report (next release on Wednesday). Notice how 2020 and 2021 were dropping into the end of the year because of course reduced demand from Covid restrictions on the economy. Then most of last year and all of this year stocks have been rising. The trend is the trend until it ends.

 

[Ironplates]

Another reason why I am not too concerned, relatively speaking, ATM - here is the EIA weekly Petroleum Stocks Report (next release on Wednesday). Notice how 2020 and 2021 were dropping into the end of the year because of course reduced demand from Covid restrictions on the economy. Then most of last year and all of this year stocks have been rising. The trend is the trend until it ends.

View attachment 325339

as a swing trader, i would invite you to consider this mark up because the impulse is still down and the reaction has not expanded yet to confirm a change in behaviour.

although this is a thread about rates, so i would suggest this move to another thread.

 

[Sergio123]

although this is a thread about rates, so i would suggest this move to another thread.

It will be an intertwined stagflationary trade. Yellen vows to support both Ukraine and Israel. Meaning that they are going to keep borrowing.

On top of that if OPEC nations start getting in on the conflict, it's going to get real dicey.