I say YES.
Are we at peak rates for T-Bills?
- Thread starter David Donner
- Start date
Based on?
Are you missing all the news on unionized worker strikes and walkouts? The wage increases in many non-unipnized environments? (without a commensurate increase in productivity I might add.) Commodity price increases? What do you think this does to inflation? What do you think the Fed would look like, given they have pounded the message that they are serious about tackling inflation, if they walked away from unfinished business? There you have your answer.
Are you missing all the news on unionized worker strikes and walkouts? The wage increases in many non-unipnized environments? (without a commensurate increase in productivity I might add.) Commodity price increases? What do you think this does to inflation? What do you think the Fed would look like, given they have pounded the message that they are serious about tackling inflation, if they walked away from unfinished business? There you have your answer.
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Personally I still think that the 8T tidal wave of QE money printing is still breaking. It takes time for that much money to work through the system:
Estimates range from 40% to 100% increase in the total money supply. It’s unprecedented.
Raising rates and other efforts to stem the tide have helped, but the worst is yet to come.
I think that jPow kept rates too low, for too long, and they purchased too many bonds/printed too much money. There was Fiscal stimulus and other handouts that add yet more ca$h to the economy… and more inflation.
So no we are not at peak rates. A harsh recession needs to hit kinda hard. Prices need to come down… it’s like I took a 40% pay cut.
This sh!t will hit the fan in 2024–election year.
1. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4494773-fed-ends-6-trillion-qe4-how-markets-react
2. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-hold-rates-steady-signal-policy-path-meeting-this-week-2023-09-19/#:~:text=From March 2022 through May,inflation since the early 1980s.
- Tapering. QE officially ended on March 9th, 2022 [1]
- Tightening. Rate raises started in March 2022 [2]
Estimates range from 40% to 100% increase in the total money supply. It’s unprecedented.
Raising rates and other efforts to stem the tide have helped, but the worst is yet to come.
I think that jPow kept rates too low, for too long, and they purchased too many bonds/printed too much money. There was Fiscal stimulus and other handouts that add yet more ca$h to the economy… and more inflation.
So no we are not at peak rates. A harsh recession needs to hit kinda hard. Prices need to come down… it’s like I took a 40% pay cut.
This sh!t will hit the fan in 2024–election year.
1. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4494773-fed-ends-6-trillion-qe4-how-markets-react
2. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-hold-rates-steady-signal-policy-path-meeting-this-week-2023-09-19/#:~:text=From March 2022 through May,inflation since the early 1980s.
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Don't forget the other QT, assets (bonds, mortgages) rolling off the balance sheet of The Fed:-
They actually have now broken below the 8T mark lol.
But look at how much further they need to go. Buckle-up buttercup.
Inflation rises during wartime and in the wake of a war.
Wow… that’s an eye opener!Don't forget the other QT, assets (bonds, mortgages) rolling off the balance sheet of The Fed:-
View attachment 324863
They actually have now broken below the 8T mark lol.
But look at how much further they need to go. Buckle-up buttercup.
View attachment 324864
Where is this inventory typically sold? Is it available on the retail brokers, or mostly moved in the professional markets?
%%
MOST likely right;
at least for OCT,
LOL .Union company goes bankrupt again [DAL\ GM\ AMR\ been there done that already, can happen again]+ lower gas prices may help Fed, but i dont make predictions about the future
The only smart investment move he ever made was marrying his wife. She makes all the investment decisions.
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He admits she is the better trader;
but not all the decisions, 1st wife anyway.
I like the IBD book= 24 Lessons..... that Cramer Berkowitz fund recommended on back cover.