Are there verifiable TA strategies with high win-rate?

[MrAgi1]

As we know, technical analysis(TA) is indeed a big deal in the world of trading. In the retail world TA is used even more. I find TA interesting(I don’t necessarily mean that in a negative way) and I am not here to question TA’s effectiveness or whatever.​

Just a simple question:
Popular types of TA are chart patterns, indicator signals and price action strategies. Are there well known verifiable(backtest-able) chart patterns, indicator signals or price action strategies, with win-rate consistently far greater than that of a coin flip(e.g 70% win rate)?

Obviously for such “well known” strategies(if they exist in the first place), I would assume would have horrible risk reward ratios(resulting in negative expectancy). You can include such strategies with negative expectancies.

However, strategies that involves averaging up/down, grid, martingale and other forms of position size manipulation should be excluded.

 

[TrAndy2022]

Popular types of TA are chart patterns, indicator signals and price action strategies. Are there well known verifiable(backtest-able) chart patterns, indicator signals or price action strategies, with win-rate consistently far greater than that of a coin flip(e.g 70% win rate)?
However, strategies that involves averaging up/down, grid, martingale and other forms of position size manipulation should be excluded.

yes, with wider stops. So the RRR >1 is not based on per trade but based on time period say 1 month, where RRR is greater than 1.

 

[maxinger]

Yes. You can have a 70% win rate if the reward-risk ratio is very lousy / low.
But you have to top up your trading account many times.

Talk about day trading futures, you should aim for RR ratio of > 3:1
and ~ 50% win rate.

Do not think a 50% win rate is easy to achieve.
Even if you use TA/chart pattern/price action/backtest-able/miracle indicators/ blablabla,
You have to sweat blood to achieve that win rate

 

[rb7]

As we know, technical analysis(TA) is indeed a big deal in the world of trading. In the retail world TA is used even more. I find TA interesting(I don’t necessarily mean that in a negative way) and I am not here to question TA’s effectiveness or whatever.​

Just a simple question:
Popular types of TA are chart patterns, indicator signals and price action strategies. Are there well known verifiable(backtest-able) chart patterns, indicator signals or price action strategies, with win-rate consistently far greater than that of a coin flip(e.g 70% win rate)?

Obviously for such “well known” strategies(if they exist in the first place), I would assume would have horrible risk reward ratios(resulting in negative expectancy). You can include such strategies with negative expectancies.

However, strategies that involves averaging up/down, grid, martingale and other forms of position size manipulation should be excluded.

TA is only a tool, it's not a strategy by itself.
With an hammer, anybody can build a house.
But only a few have the ability to do it.

 

[SunTrader]

There are books on the subject (and prolly multiple topics here), my suggestion pick one and read it.

 

[MrAgi1]

yes, with wider stops. So the RRR >1 is not based on per trade but based on time period say 1 month, where RRR is greater than 1.

So In it’s self there is no proof that indicators or chart patterns can consistently win(lose) much more(less) than 50% of the time?

 

[TrAndy2022]

So In it’s self there is no proof that indicators or chart patterns can consistently win(lose) much more(less) than 50% of the time?

No, it can be but you have to define what is 50% of the time. It is based on at least 1 month or longer then it can 50% of the time.

 

[rb7]

So In it’s self there is no proof that indicators or chart patterns can consistently win(lose) much more(less) than 50% of the time?

The % win rate use alone has no significance.
You can have a strategy with a 97% win rate and still losing money.
You can have a strategy with a 30% win rate and making tons of money.

[Win rate] + [R:R] is what you should be looking for.

 

[Pekelo]

Double top/bottom with RSI divergence. But this is only the entry point, so where you exit determines the outcome of the trade.

 

[MrAgi1]

No, it can be but you have to define what is 50% of the time. It is based on at least 1 month or longer then it can 50% of the time.

I meant 50% win rate like a coin flip. Can indicators be shown to either consistently improve or worsen win rate of a strategy which should be ideally be 50/50?

I know win-rate can be altered by skewing the RRR. However I have no interest in that.

Take for example: For a certain underlying I use a certain TP and SL(it could be any value). Let’s say I have 2 separate account and I trade the same underlying with the same TP and SL in both accounts. However in one account I randomly place trades and in another account I use some form of TA.

Would I always arrive at the same profit or loss after thousands of trades in both accounts?

I don’t care if the TA is profitable or a massive losser but with same underlying and targets would I always get the same result for random entry as TA?