Are Elliot waves too subjective to be objective?

[GordyG]

I've worked on the sell side and as a PM at some funds. What proof we you have other than his HF is his personal account and his agribusiness had $20K in assets in 2017? Multiples of his net liq? Where is it shown?

WTF does "multiplied his trading returns" mean?

You could be right about your negative view of him.

Although 7 and a half years gathering skills in price prediction and modelling at JPM does carry some clout IMHO.

The thread was not intended to promote anything, quite the opposite in fact, if anything.
I tend to give up looking at EW after wave one.

Thought I might get people's opinions on THEIR practical experience of using EW.

Was Elliot just a poor trader?

 

[MarkBrown]

Emergent Asset Management, founded by David Murrin, experienced significant challenges starting in the 2010s, which ultimately led to its winding down by 2015. Several factors contributed to the firm's decline:

1. Market Conditions and Strategy Misalignment: The financial environment changed considerably after the 2008 crisis. The strategies that had once been highly effective in volatile markets, particularly shorting during crises, became less successful as markets stabilized and central banks implemented unconventional monetary policies, such as quantitative easing. These conditions made it harder for Emergent's strategies, which relied on predicting large market dislocations, to generate the same levels of return.
   
   
2. Emerging Market Volatility: As a fund that focused on emerging markets, Emergent was particularly exposed to the increased volatility and unpredictability in these regions. The firm struggled to adapt to the new realities of emerging markets, where political instability, currency fluctuations, and changing economic policies made it difficult to maintain consistent returns.
   
   
3. Operational and Fund Management Issues: The firm also faced internal challenges related to fund management and operations. There were reports of disagreements and difficulties in managing the fund, which may have contributed to its inability to adapt to changing market conditions.
   
   
4. Investor Redemptions and Declining AUM: As the fund's performance began to lag, investor confidence waned, leading to significant redemptions. This decline in assets under management (AUM) further exacerbated the firm's difficulties, limiting its ability to invest effectively and manage its portfolio.
   

By 2015, these factors culminated in the decision to wind down operations. The combination of market challenges, strategic misalignment, and operational difficulties meant that Emergent could no longer manage money effectively, leading to its eventual closure (David Murrin) (David Murrin).

 

[GordyG]

Guess I would ask, why start a subject topic which you are sceptical about? Point?

Maybe someone could prove me wrong.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts"

 

[poopy]

You could be right about your negative view of him.

Although 7 and a half years gathering skills in price prediction and modelling at JPM does carry some clout IMHO.

The thread was not intended to promote anything, quite the opposite in fact, if anything.
I tend to give up looking at EW after wave one.

Thought I might get people's opinions on THEIR practical experience of using EW.

Was Elliot just a poor trader?

Elliott died broke. There is nothing to back up this guy's claims, CV, etc.

 

[MarkBrown]

Maybe someone could prove me wrong.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts"

The quote "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts" is often attributed to the philosopher Bertrand Russell. This quote succinctly captures a common observation about the nature of confidence and self-doubt in human behavior. However, while the sentiment resonates with many of Russell's writings, the exact wording of this quote has not been definitively traced to a specific work of his.

The idea reflects Russell's broader philosophical views on the dangers of dogmatism and the importance of skepticism. In his essay "The Triumph of Stupidity" (1933), Russell discusses how dangerous it is when certainty is found in those who lack wisdom, while the truly wise are often hesitant and full of doubts. This aligns with the quote in question.

Therefore, while the quote might accurately summarize Russell's thoughts, it’s always possible that someone could argue against this generalization by providing examples of wise individuals who are confident in their knowledge or of confident individuals who are indeed wise. But as a general observation, it holds significant merit and reflects a widely recognized psychological pattern.

If you're interested in exploring this further, it might be worth reading more of Russell's essays, particularly those that deal with knowledge, certainty, and skepticism, to understand the depth of his thoughts on these issues.

 

[GordyG]

Elliott died broke. There is nothing to back up this guy's claims, CV, etc.

Cool.

So the concensus is that Elliot Waves are basically useless b☆llocks then?

 

[Scataphagos]

If Computers can't count the Waves and agree on them, how can people?

FWIW... I once had an EW software. I recall one time running it for hours on the stock market. It ran all day... 93 MILLION possible counts. I don't recall whether that call was correct... but it did get it right a couple of times.

 

[SunTrader]

Maybe someone could prove me wrong.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts"

Doubtful I am wise person though I am full of doubts about a lot of things. One being the aim you had for this pointless topic. Carry on.

 

[Coin Flip]

I know of a well known investment strategist guy with a background in Physics, who regularly appears on CNBC, who swears by Elliot waves. He flat out says it's multiplied his trading returns.

I believe it. He is not the first trader to make bank using Elliot wave.

Elliott died broke. There is nothing to back up this guy's claims, CV, etc.

Doesn't mean Elliott wave doesn't work. Just means he couldn't get it work.

Cool.

So the concensus is that Elliot Waves are basically useless b☆llocks then?

Elliot wave is useless for us because we are noobs.

I don't think those who make bank using Elliot wave are going to tell you how they calculate the waves. So yeah, we should just give up.

 

[GordyG]

Doubtful I am wise person though I am full of doubts about a lot of things. One being the aim you had for this pointless topic. Carry on.

Doubtful I am wise person though I am full of doubts about a lot of things. One being the aim you had for this pointless topic. Carry on.

Quote : "Like anything they "work" some of the time"

Ah yeah. I see what you mean now. Wise words.