Are Elliot waves too subjective to be objective?

G

GordyG

I know of a well known investment strategist guy with a background in Physics, who regularly appears on CNBC, who swears by Elliot waves.
He flat out says it's multiplied his trading returns.

I guess I partly believe in using them from a market psychology point of view, and I definitely believe trendlines work, which are a big part of EW.

The thing that makes them limited for me is that when a trend changes from say 1 to 2 is subjective.

It's almost as if EW traders say, " Oh, that's not gonna fit. Well, I'll just divide wave 1 into seperate individual waves, to make it 1 later on".
 
GordyG said:
I know of a well known investment strategist guy with a background in Physics, who regularly appears on CNBC, who swears by Elliot waves.
He flat out says it's multiplied his trading returns.

I guess I partly believe in using them from a market psychology point of view, and I definitely believe trendlines work, which are a big part of EW.

The thing that makes them limited for me is that when a trend changes from say 1 to 2 is subjective.

It's almost as if EW traders say, " Oh, that's not gonna fit. Well, I'll just divide wave 1 into seperate individual waves, to make it 1 later on".
More...


Millions of newbie traders use Elliot (or Idiot) waves.

Hardly any experienced traders use Elliot waves.

Have fun with EW
 
Mr Elliott originally referred to guidelines. Only later in life did he called them "rules" to satisfy the anal-retentive types.

Price doesn't always comply. That is why I stick with the guidelines term and adjust as things develop in real time. What else can you do?

Same with any other type of TA, or for that matter FA.
 
SunTrader said:
Mr Elliott originally referred to guidelines. Only later in life did he called them "rules" to satisfy the anal-retentive types.

Price doesn't always comply. That is why I stick with the guidelines term and adjust as things develop in real time. What else can you do?

Same with any other type of TA, or for that matter FA.
More...

Yeah, from a psychology point of view, at a market bottom you have too much fear in the market for wave 1 to last long, so some bearishness remains, which is wrung out in another short wave 2.

I think most logically thinking people without bias would agree with that side of thinking is useful.
 
Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) is often considered subjective because its application relies heavily on individual interpretation of market patterns, which can vary among analysts. Identifying waves is challenging, especially in real-time trading, as one analyst's clear five-wave pattern might differ from another's, depending on the time frame and market context. While EWT has rules and guidelines—such as Wave 3 not being the shortest and Wave 4 avoiding overlap with Wave 1—these allow for flexibility, leading to different wave counts. analysis often becomes clearer in hindsight, which can create an illusion of accuracy after the fact, though it may be less reliable as a real-time predictive tool.
 
maxinger said:
Millions of newbie traders use Elliot (or Idiot) waves.

Hardly any experienced traders use Elliot waves.

Have fun with EW
More...

I agree with the "hardly any"... The only Large Successful Trader who openly declared he used EW and made huge money was... Paul Tudor Jones...

""Known for his contrarian approach to trading, Jones made a name for himself by predicting the 1987 stock market crash, earning a remarkable $100 million in a single day. His trading style is characterized by a blend of technical analysis, particularly Elliott Wave theory, and a deep understanding of market psychology and sentiment.""
 
EdgeHunter said:
I agree with the "hardly any"... The only Large Successful Trader who openly declared he used EW and made huge money was... Paul Tudor Jones...

""Known for his contrarian approach to trading, Jones made a name for himself by predicting the 1987 stock market crash, earning a remarkable $100 million in a single day. His trading style is characterized by a blend of technical analysis, particularly Elliott Wave theory, and a deep understanding of market psychology and sentiment.""
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Are you talking 1987?

PTJ was also using a lot more and better ways of predicting a Crash than EWs in 1987.
 
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