Anyone Made 100%+ a Year Consistently With Futures Or Know Of Anyone Who Has?
- Thread starter RichLyons
- Start date
Fun fact: according to Michael Marcus, "Craig Witt was the only trader in the history of Commodities Corporation to have back-to-back 1000% percent years trading futures."
It's well known that Tudor and Marcus both put up 100% per annum returns on a consistent basis back in the 70s/80s.
What would you/they credit your/their returns to?
Someone asked Ed Seykota this very question in his Trading Tribe forum once, and he responded [paraphrased] "much of my success had to do with being in the right place at the right time, and you would get a similar response if you asked my friend Michael Marcus the same question."
My interpretation of Ed's response: inflationary conditions of the 1970s-80s coupled with backtesting sophistication not utilized by 95% of the competition helped a lot.
What system do they/you use?
Seykota used a fairly straightforward Donchian price channel breakout system across a basket of futures.
It's well known that Tudor and Marcus both put up 100% per annum returns on a consistent basis back in the 70s/80s.
What would you/they credit your/their returns to?
Someone asked Ed Seykota this very question in his Trading Tribe forum once, and he responded [paraphrased] "much of my success had to do with being in the right place at the right time, and you would get a similar response if you asked my friend Michael Marcus the same question."
My interpretation of Ed's response: inflationary conditions of the 1970s-80s coupled with backtesting sophistication not utilized by 95% of the competition helped a lot.
What system do they/you use?
Seykota used a fairly straightforward Donchian price channel breakout system across a basket of futures.
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"Anyone Made 100%+ a Year Consistently With Futures Or Know Of Anyone Who Has?"
I did very well in the 90's percentage wise, but when you only start with $25k, it is just easier to make better returns cause it not much money, as account grows, one let's the number mess with you and you become your own worst enemy. I thought in the 80's I was well on my way twice and twice wiped out losing low-high six figures, just flipping being dumb, very dumb being obsessed of making much as fast as I could, after second time, I learned. Was slowly drinking myself into deep deep hole then. For fifteen minutes of fame even won a futures contest in early 90s, another lifetime ago. It very different when it is your own money on the line. Trading is a very lonesome endeavor, if you good and you let anyone know where you live, every fucking idiot is knocking on your door, had to move couple times. You develop into weird S.O.B. and at some point, thankfully, you really don't like people much.
What is incredible, what worked in 1978 when I started with stocks, works today. Am I willing to share it, it is called charting, but you have to think beyond books, you have to make your own patterns. And what works on monthly charts will work on one minute charts. I started with graph paper, pencil and ruler, you be surprised how well you learn from hand to brain. My newer systems are a bit more complex now for scalping/but long term, same concepts for past 25 years but have become more conservative aggressive. Seriously thinking of starting Hedge fund in 3 years with best buddy, we making all that "non HFT/algo crap", don't have to beat the S&P500 index percentages-just have less drawdown and will do better in theory.
For every 1,000 guys trying to gain knowledge or trade in prop shop, maybe handful will make it. You not going to learn it asking these same childish questions on posts you are making, you learn it working your ass off doing 80-90 hour weeks for years. I always considered it a "hobby" as my intent was not to make a living but see how much I could grow my retirement account, but I have worked extremely long hours for years, had to learn to program, learn how many fucked up internal problems I had to overcome, you tend to really see who you are when you losing a great deal of YOUR money.
Get on the PC, start testing, reading about pure charting.
I did very well in the 90's percentage wise, but when you only start with $25k, it is just easier to make better returns cause it not much money, as account grows, one let's the number mess with you and you become your own worst enemy. I thought in the 80's I was well on my way twice and twice wiped out losing low-high six figures, just flipping being dumb, very dumb being obsessed of making much as fast as I could, after second time, I learned. Was slowly drinking myself into deep deep hole then. For fifteen minutes of fame even won a futures contest in early 90s, another lifetime ago. It very different when it is your own money on the line. Trading is a very lonesome endeavor, if you good and you let anyone know where you live, every fucking idiot is knocking on your door, had to move couple times. You develop into weird S.O.B. and at some point, thankfully, you really don't like people much.
What is incredible, what worked in 1978 when I started with stocks, works today. Am I willing to share it, it is called charting, but you have to think beyond books, you have to make your own patterns. And what works on monthly charts will work on one minute charts. I started with graph paper, pencil and ruler, you be surprised how well you learn from hand to brain. My newer systems are a bit more complex now for scalping/but long term, same concepts for past 25 years but have become more conservative aggressive. Seriously thinking of starting Hedge fund in 3 years with best buddy, we making all that "non HFT/algo crap", don't have to beat the S&P500 index percentages-just have less drawdown and will do better in theory.
For every 1,000 guys trying to gain knowledge or trade in prop shop, maybe handful will make it. You not going to learn it asking these same childish questions on posts you are making, you learn it working your ass off doing 80-90 hour weeks for years. I always considered it a "hobby" as my intent was not to make a living but see how much I could grow my retirement account, but I have worked extremely long hours for years, had to learn to program, learn how many fucked up internal problems I had to overcome, you tend to really see who you are when you losing a great deal of YOUR money.
Get on the PC, start testing, reading about pure charting.
Luck. Anyone making 100% year after year will blow up sooner or later because the PnL swings will be massive.
Why do you ask this question in regards to specifically futures only, and not in trading collectively as a whole
I can do 100%, that's somewhat modest...to be frank. But I don't compound to Space with each trade going all in on top of each other.
I take money out each time my acct surpasses a relatively small amount.
But to semi-answer your question...risk vs reward. and risk tolerances/appetites. and chart reading/prediction abilities. along with leverage, options.
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Who comes up with these questions, always impressive to see retail struggling with simple math in the financial markets. Triple digit percentage compounded returns per year starting with $1,000 creates a billionaire after 15-20years, after the first years all drop away, leaving only 2,000 at the end.
Some can generate triple digit income returns because it's at the start of the exponential curve and flat, assuming they have capital, it's hard work but not complex, I made 50% return for income since March, but only a handful can produce triple digit returns at the extremes for capital. Even those with 1,000s posts apparently can't differentiate, they only ever talk about income and think it's the same process for capital, retail are funny.
Some can generate triple digit income returns because it's at the start of the exponential curve and flat, assuming they have capital, it's hard work but not complex, I made 50% return for income since March, but only a handful can produce triple digit returns at the extremes for capital. Even those with 1,000s posts apparently can't differentiate, they only ever talk about income and think it's the same process for capital, retail are funny.
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Making year after year 100% cannot be done based on luck. If you even don't understand that, you surely are too stupid to trade.
You can calculate, based on a statistically representative amount of trades, with high certainty that luck is excluded.
Try to drive a car blindfolded. We will see how for you will go without crashing.