Anyone here actually profitable?

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Unless it wasn't obvious from the post above, I'll add that it's the consistency which is hard to maintain in this game. You really have to bring your A game every single day. No room for errors or miscalculations. Stay the hell out if you don't know what's going on. I still struggle there.

Racking up a few winning days or even weeks I'm sure most can do. But being a consistent net winner is incredibly hard. What changed for me over the last 2 years is that I'm running some big winners home, both on a trade-by-trade basis and on a daily basis. In the past I could do 25 small winning days in a row and lose it all on a few big down days. So, maxing out your winners while protecting the down side is most certainly key in order to have a fighting chance.
 
With one year in you're just scratching the surface. It's still not too late to give up. It's much harder to let it go after you've been at it for 5 years with nothing to show for it.

If you decide to continue, I think you're better off focusing on swing trading and modest returns as opposed to making a killing.

But the best advice you'll get is probably to give up, unless you're prepared to dedicate your life to this with the chance you'll go nowhere.



100%!

Don't trust anyone. If you figured this out after only one year, then good for you. It took me a lot longer and I'm now at the point where I pretty much don't trust anyone. There are a select few I think are the real deal, but at the end of the day I never saw any performance reports or broker statements, so I'm not really sure about anything.

The only traders I really trust are those that are verified in Market Wizards by Schwager.



Do NOT. I repeat. Do NOT fund a large account. You will lose it. A larger account just means larger losses. Trust me. There are people in this thread that blew a 100K account. The most famous trader in Norway blew a billion sized account and that was after years of successful trading.



I've been at this for well over 10 years. That's not 10 intense years of daily studies for 10 + hours, but periodically this have been my entire life and I've been a full time trader several times. To this day I still spend most of my free hours on this, but my day job is as an engineer. I also have a business education. Good grades and generally grasp things quickly. Academic studies and office work is easy compared to trading.

In some ways I already gave up on trading for a living or becoming rich from trading, but I keep plugging away like some weird hobby. Some people watch TV after work or hang out with their girlfriend. I spend my time trading and only give my girlfriend a kiss goodnight at midnight when I'm done with the day. She's lucky if she gets to spend some time with me on the weekend. Thankfully, she's busy and an introvert herself.

What's really weighing on me recently is the alternative cost of my time and time really flies by as you get older.

Trading style / method:

Day trading index futures primarily targeting the larger moves within the day, but trying to be content with a smaller move also once in a while.

I use predictive modeling / statistics which help me forecast/anticipate the day ahead. Sometimes I get it incredibly accurate, other days I'm dead wrong (like today). This is a statistical application written in C# which I spent many years to put together and hired a professional firm to build for me costing me I would imagine around $15-20K in total.

I also use chart based analytics mostly focusing on levels as I think the micro moves are less predictable and more noisy. If anyone else understands these consistently, then he gets my admiration.

Results so far this year:

Funded a small account in January:

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Off to a good start, but got sloppy and over confident like I often do when things are going well and losses just cascaded as I started taking more risk and was more focused on making back what I lost and getting back to equity highs than actually trading the market.

Closed down the account in the middle of February, took a breather and funded a new small account that I started trading medium March:

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Which means I'm up just below $2K in total so far this year.

I feel I have a good grasp of the market on a daily basis, but it's only too easy to mess up and do mistakes. I consider myself marginally profitable with a paper thin edge. If I can correct my major mistakes and learn to stay out when things aren't clear, maybe, I have a chance at getting somewhere, but I'm not holding my breath.

Just to give you some honest feedback about where I'm at after so many years. Maybe someone else would share their results, too.

My advice is still that you should do something else with your life.

The thread continues to blow up so I'll continue posting.

I'm an engineer as well and trading has been more difficult than anything work or school has ever thrown at me. At work or school, it isn't like if you make one tiny mistake you hit the delete button on everything you've learned up until that point, rendering it useless. The more time you spend the better you get and the more you have to show for it. With trading, every wrong decision has the potential to put you back to zero because you can't afford to make mistakes. If the rest of the world worked like this nothing would ever be accomplished.

Congrats on the upward equity curve. I'm currently at the point where I'm aiming for the same thing: intraday swings. I realize that the market is going to do whatever it's going to do, and the intraday noise will usually cost money, so better to just go along for the ride on its next wave up or down and ignore the in-between. My problem is that I can't correctly trade these moves, but at least I can identify their significance and potential.

I'm beginning to think that trading is more about what not to do (avoiding mistakes) than what to do. The "to do" is just riding intraday waves, while the mistakes to avoid are bad timing or bad risk parameters. I could be wrong, however.

I wish you continued success on your trading journey and thank you for your well-thought out and detailed response.
 
You haven't even quantified what you want. Except you said something about 8 ES points a day. Which is a completely unreasonable profit expectation.

If you want a profitable trading system with say a Sharpe ratio of 0.5. I can tell you that is easy, no bullshit. But such a system, even though long term profitable, is not a great system to trade. Lots of losing months.

But if you want a profitable trading system with a Sharpe ratio of 5. That is not so easy to develop at all and if anyone tells you that it is they are bullshitting. That system wont give you any losing months.

What is reasonable? it lies somewhere within that range, but closer to the 0.5 end than the 5.0 end.

I want to make money. Doesn't everybody? However I can get it and with whatever tools or strategies I need to use. I don't care if it's 0.5 or 5, so long that it's an upward equity curve over the long haul.

You think 8 points on ES a day is unreasonable? Intraday swings are sometimes double that, and it can move 40+ points a day. I mean, unless you're scalping a few ticks at a time, going for larger moves seems to almost be the trade to take, does it not? The intra-day swings? Thinking out loud.
 
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I want to make money. Doesn't everybody? However I can get it and with whatever tools or strategies I need to use. I don't care if it's 0.5 or 5, so long that it's an upward equity curve over the long haul.

You think 8 points on ES a day is unreasonable? Intraday swings are sometimes double that, and it can move 40+ points a day? I mean, unless you're scalping a few ticks at a time, going for larger moves seems to almost be the trade to take, does it not? The intra-day swings?
Why are you trading ES?
 
One thing about trading is that it really makes you question what is real and what isn't, and this has made me a more critical human being. I'm constantly thinking about what is true and have come to realize that almost everyone I meet in the real world is completely full of shit on almost every level. Everyone parrots what they think is true rather than fact-checking what is. Trading has made me more of a hermit because I'm more unwilling to tolerate the bullshit others perpetuate in almost every area of life, and have tended to shy away from society at large. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing has yet to be determined, but at least I've gained a certain self-respect where I'm willing to call people out on their nonsense and try to look between the lines. I'm beginning to think that the majority of human interaction is ultimately based on deceit, and it's really opened my eyes to the way things are truly done in this world.
 
Do any of you mind posting some details about what you trade, how often you trade, what your monthly/yearly return is, etc.? Can I get some realism into what professional trading looks like?

Hello Rutro,

The question you are asking is basically the same questions below:

1. Can someone please show me how you pay your bills on your 5 bedroom mansion?
2. Can someone please show me how they make their wife VERY happy, so she does not sex another man with more money than me? Or she does not leave me cause I have no money and trading and I am loser trader?
3. Can someone please show me how you are paying your kids college tuition every year?
4. Can someone please show me how you pay for all your vacations and hobbies?
5. Can someone please show me how you eat steak 3 times a week and smoke expensive cigars
6. Can someone please show me how you afford to have 2 young pretty girlfriends and have sex with them as you please and pay their bills?
7. Can someone please show me how bought a fancy new car every 2 years?

Read my post again here.

Again, NOONE on this planet is going to show you or give you no answers how they are making millions of dollar a year trading. Forget about it. Not happening. I am not even telling my own kids until they are 40 years old and SERIOUS. If they not serious, I am not telling them either.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/anyone-here-actually-profitable.373538/page-3#post-5790771
 
Hello Rutro,

The question you are asking is basically the same questions below:

1. Can someone please show me you pay your bills on your 5 bedroom mansion?
2. Can someone please show me how they make their wife VERY happy, so she does not sex another man with more money than me? Or she does not leave me cause I have no money and trading and I am loser trader?
3. Can someone please show me how you are paying your kids college tuition every year?
4. Can someone please show me how you pay for all your vacations and hobbies?
5. Can someone please show me how you eat steak 3 times a week and smoke expensive cigars
6. Can someone please show me how you afford to have 2 young pretty girlfriends and have sex with them as you please and pay their bills?
7. Can someone please show me how bought a fancy new car every 2 years?

Read my post again here.

Again, NOONE on this planet is going to show you or give you no answers how they are making millions of dollar a year trading. Forget about it. Not happening. I am not even telling my own kids until they are 40 years old and SERIOUS.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/anyone-here-actually-profitable.373538/page-3#post-5790771

Lol boy you crazy as hell
 
Congrats on the upward equity curve. I'm currently at the point where I'm aiming for the same thing: intraday swings. I realize that the market is going to do whatever it's going to do, and the intraday noise will usually cost money, so better to just go along for the ride on its next wave up or down and ignore the in-between. My problem is that I can't correctly trade these moves, but at least I can identify their significance and potential.

I'm beginning to think that trading is more about what not to do (avoiding mistakes) than what to do. The "to do" is just riding intraday waves, while the mistakes to avoid are bad timing or bad risk parameters. I could be wrong, however.

You could check out the posts from this guy. He gave some pointers on how he's trading and appears to be doing very well from what he shared here:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/members/1eyejackal.537046/

I think you're dead on regarding avoiding mistakes. The easiest trades - at least for me - is when the market is trending. When the market is in a range - it's easy to get chopped up buying highs and selling lows. So, if you can learn to just stay out of those ranges and wait for a clear trend to present itself you can do well.

Obviously, use a multi-time frame system and be aware of what's going on at the daily chart, 240-minute, 60-minute and all the way down to your entry chart.

It does require patience and discipline being able to stay out and only trading when everything lines up perfectly. That can easily mean skipping an entire trading day.

At the end of the day trading is an expectancy based game, so you either need a very high win rate and usually small winners relative to losses, or you need to make sure you make at least twice what you risk and can then get away with a lower win rate. Know your math here. Most people lose because they make less than they lose. Period.

Add to winners, ride them and lock in breakeven entries as price moves in your favour. Never add to a loser and cut losses ruthlessly. This is a good way to make sure you always take losses on your minimum size with the potential of a few outsized winners.

I wish you continued success on your trading journey and thank you for your well-thought out and detailed response.

You're welcome. And thank you.
 
Lol boy you crazy as hell
Hello hilmy83,

Lol, its the truth.

Why would I share with someone how I can go get 2 young ladies to do EXACTLY what I say tonight, as exactly as I please? And go buy a new Benz at the end of the month cash money. I said ANY woman I want. I am man, why would I tell another man how to do this for?

This is the trading GAME. You either a LION or a SHEEP. Eat or get KILLED. Make MONEY or STARVE to death with a really HARD penis, cause no woman is going to sex a poor losing trader. The winner millionaire trader, get all the ladies.

And NOONE is going to help us. We are ALL ALONE.
 
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