Anyone else think Elliot Wave is a bunch of hooey?

Quote from HolyGrail:

I agree with everything you mentioned prior to the above. I believe in the total opposite. It has amazingly accurate predictablity of turning points(at least mt predictor does) If it weren't for this quality I would never use it at all.
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I call.....

If you are a pure Elliotician,I would like to see your accuracy.

And you are more than welcome to use any if Adv Gets prediction tools....

Ready when you are
 
I am nowhere near a pure elliottician. I have no problem posting predictions of turning points. I will do so in this thread. Please remember that with mt predictor there is either a count or there is not a count so I cannot just take any stock and make a prediction, but I will give you predictions as I come across them.
 
Anyone else think Elliot Wave is a bunch of hooey?
Yes.
But there still seems to be an entire industry of EW gurus & hoodoo believers in EW.
:)
 
Quote from traderdragon:

I raise :D and predict a 50/50 win% ratio when hindsight is not used
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Actually the win/loss ratio is more like 40/60 in favor of the losses if you use the program as a black box and do not use any discrimination. Even with discrimination you are lucky to get 50/50 but the win ratio is not as important as long as your winners are decent.

I'll give you one prediction right now. I currently own 6500 shares of SIRI which I purchased based on elliott waves(I normally do not make a purchase from elliott waves, I manage my trades with elliott waves)

I got the end of day signal on 8/15/2006 to purchase the stock if the stock went above 3.77. I purchased the stock on 8/16/2006 for 3.79. My stop is set at 3.59

The stock is going to move up. It will either be a wave C or a wave 3. I don't know which, nor do I really care. I do know that the stock will move up. The projected target if it is a C wave is 4.92 to 5.10. If it is a wave 3 the stock typically will move to 5.51 to 5.71. I will know if it is a wave 3 if the stock easily moves up past my wave c target.

I have moved up my mental stop to 3.68.

Now all we have to do is watch and see what happens.
 
I should also mention the stock is very close to it's 2:1 reward vs risk ratio. Should it hit that I will sell 1/4 of my shares. If it hits my c wave prediction I wll sell 1/2 of my remaining shares.
 
Here is one more prediction. The stock is XEC. This is a long and in this tepid market may not do anything but if the stock doesn't at least hit the entry point you have lost nothing.

You only enter if the stock makes it above 38.28 and looks like it will hold. I normally will never buy during the first 3 hours of the market when I am going long.

Projections are as follows.

Min Wave C is
42.81 to 43.68
a risk/reward of 6:1

Typ Wave C is
44.17 to 45.07
a risk/reward of 7.8:1

Typ Wave 3 is
47.31 to 48.27
a risk/reward of 11.9:1

Max Wave 3 is
56.33 to 57.47
a risk/reward of 23.7:1
 
Quote from taowave:

Lets face it,Dow Theory,Alan Andrews work and the Elliot wave are all predicated on some sort of wave theory.I think most of us are in agreement that the market moves in a wave like structure Some of the time.It would also be true that trend followers suscribe to this theory as well,since they make the bulk of their money on "impulse waves".....

One must logically ask why are the trend/breakout traders such as John Henry/Turtles generally well respected,yet the Ellioticians of the world are genearally viewd as one step up from a used car salesman??

The answer is quite simple.

Trend followers who devote enormous analytical resources to making money know all to well that the large waves can come at any given time and thus one must always be in the market following a breakout/moving average X.Put simply,it is clear the markets do move in wave sequences,but it can not be predicted as to when and how far....

The Elliot wave clearly believes that markets move in impulse waves as well as corrective patterns which is not debatable.What is VERY debatable is the so called labeling ability of the waves and prediciting the extent of waves and turning points thru the fibbonacci sequence...It is at this very moment that Elliot wave loses all credibility as a viable trading vehicle.
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Very well put!
Trend/momentum traders play trends when there is one.
EW aims to define all of the markets movement, not just the trends which are obvious to everyone.
Determining the proper labeling is very dependent upon past market action. When one has the wrong count for what has already occurred, there is no possible way of them coming up with the ongoing correct count. Therein is the simple problem with most, if not all, of the public EW guys.
If one bases past 'anything' on incorrect assumptions, the present and future eventually becomes totally incomprehensible. The natural claim becomes that EW does not work, rather than the technician was/is in error.
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

I am nowhere near a pure elliottician. I have no problem posting predictions of turning points. I will do so in this thread. Please remember that with mt predictor there is either a count or there is not a count so I cannot just take any stock and make a prediction, but I will give you predictions as I come across them.
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That's terrific!
Look forward to them :)
 
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