Anyone else think Elliot Wave is a bunch of hooey?

Quote from Cheese:

Anyone else think Elliot Wave is a bunch of hooey?
Yes.
But there still seems to be an entire industry of EW gurus & hoodoo believers in EW.
:)
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What color would you like your 'doll' to be?
I'll use dull pins! ;)
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

I should also mention the stock is very close to it's 2:1 reward vs risk ratio. Should it hit that I will sell 1/4 of my shares. If it hits my c wave prediction I wll sell 1/2 of my remaining shares.
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SIRI I'll keep an eye on it. THX
 
Quote from onlytronalso:

Very well put!
Trend/momentum traders play trends when there is one.
EW aims to define all of the markets movement, not just the trends which are obvious to everyone.
Determining the proper labeling is very dependent upon past market action. When one has the wrong count for what has already occurred, there is no possible way of them coming up with the ongoing correct count. Therein is the simple problem with most, if not all, of the public EW guys.
If one bases past 'anything' on incorrect assumptions, the present and future eventually becomes totally incomprehensible. The natural claim becomes that EW does not work, rather than the technician was/is in error.
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I think you will find that most successful Elliot surfers employ various technical comfirmations before they stand up and ride the wave....

For instance,on a wave two pullback of some fibonacci proportion,I would guess that most EWavers may take a small peak at a stochastic or RSI before attemting to get on the mother of all wave 3....Once aboard,they may employ a MA /regression channel to stay on and hopefully ride the wave all the way to their projected fibonacci extension...

Should this be the case,the question needs to be asked if the tail was wagging the dog...Did the EW theory simply supply the framework ,(just as looking at a compelling fundamentally cheap stock?),while the technicals were really the basis for taking the trade entry.

I am glad that HolyGrail is willing and kind enough to step to the plate and show us how he employs the elliot wave...I only hope,if he is looking at various technicals/volume he does mention it as well..

I have a theory on those who successfully employ the EW theory:)
 
Quote from taowave:

I think you will find that most successful Elliot surfers employ various technical comfirmations before they stand up and ride the wave....

For instance,on a wave two pullback of some fibonacci proportion,I would guess that most EWavers may take a small peak at a stochastic or RSI before attemting to get on the mother of all wave 3....Once aboard,they may employ a MA /regression channel to stay on and hopefully ride the wave all the way to their projected fibonacci extension...

Should this be the case,the question needs to be asked if the tail was wagging the dog...Did the EW theory simply supply the framework ,(just as looking at a compelling fundamentally cheap stock?),while the technicals were really the basis for taking the trade entry.

I am glad that HolyGrail is willing and kind enough to step to the plate and show us how he employs the elliot wave...I only hope,if he is looking at various technicals/volume he does mention it as well..

I have a theory on those who successfully employ the EW theory:)
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I have been really trying to find other indicators that will confirm an elliott wave entry but I have had very limited success. Money management has been the key because you are just plain wrong too often. I do use a 50 day regression with a 2% standard of deviation as another tool to ride the stock as it goes up or down if I am short.

What I have found to be successful is once you use elliott on a stock AND IT WORKS, I continue to trade the stock until the signals no longer work. I have traded siri all year and it has not been wrong yet. The same could be said for aapl,tie,dia,spy,bud, and fdc. I feel as my stock universe increases my profit will as well. Time will tell.


If you look at a chart of XEC you will see a stock that is rolling over. I would have never traded this stock, and I probably shouldn't right now but if it meets the entry criteriia I will purchase it. The best stocks to trade seem to be right after an obvious ABC correction, and this stock meets that criteria.
 
Quote from onlytronalso:

Grail,

Took a look at SIRI and if it busts out of that wedge you should get something going. Nice divergences too
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I'm not a very big believer in divergences. I have never backtested them with a program, but I have done it manually for macd,obv,and rsi. The results were less than stellar. The problem is in most cases you are comparing price to an indicator that uses a different time frame. I have not tested divergencies using the same time frame but I would think they would be more significant.
 
Quote from taowave:

I think you will find that most successful Elliot surfers employ various technical comfirmations before they stand up and ride the wave....

For instance,on a wave two pullback of some fibonacci proportion,I would guess that most EWavers may take a small peak at a stochastic or RSI before attemting to get on the mother of all wave 3....Once aboard,they may employ a MA /regression channel to stay on and hopefully ride the wave all the way to their projected fibonacci extension...

Should this be the case,the question needs to be asked if the tail was wagging the dog...Did the EW theory simply supply the framework ,(just as looking at a compelling fundamentally cheap stock?),while the technicals were really the basis for taking the trade entry.

I have a theory on those who successfully employ the EW theory:)
More...


Tao,
EW is a graphic representation of the investor psychology cycle. Since it is graphic it already implies technical analysis. Therefore, to attempt to read the waves without other TI is defeating the entire purpose of the exercise. Impulse waves can and do extend. Corrections can go on and on into double and triple this and that. Thus unless one has supporting technical evidence, at implied EW turning points, one is spinning their wheels. Surely another one of the reasons people fail in EW analysis.
GOOD POINT!
 
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