Anyone else think Elliot Wave is a bunch of hooey?

[taowave]

"Elliot Wave" ,when combined with money management, proper position size algorithms applied and basic technical systems(MACD,MA,Stochastic) will perform well...And like it or not,if you are trading equities,High RS and fundamentals will certainly help your cause.

But the same can be said for Dow Theory,Andrews and other technical methods.Its really not the theory,its how one implements and supports the theory

 

[onlytronalso]

Quote from TSGannGalt:

It's got value.

You have to consider testing Elliott Wave (or Gann) in a composite sense...

For example, have you tested Elliott Wave with the wave past patterns into consideration? Multiple timeframe... Multiple resolution... should be considered for testing...

TS
I had backtested EW using daily data from 1885-1983, after that I used live data, and it's still functioning real time.
The advent of the futures market has made it a little more difficult to read short term, but when one stretches out the time horizons it's still perfectly clear.

 

[onlytronalso]

Quote from steve46:

If there were a standardized "Elliot Wave" theory to test you might be right. As it is, well it is worse than hooey. it is pure crap....

Sorry

Steve,
There is a standardized EW principle, but it's not public information.

 

[onlytronalso]

Quote from taowave:

"Elliot Wave" ,when combined with money management, proper position size algorithms applied and basic technical systems(MACD,MA,Stochastic) will perform well...And like it or not,if you are trading equities,High RS and fundamentals will certainly help your cause.

But the same can be said for Dow Theory,Andrews and other technical methods.Its really not the theory,its how one implements and supports the theory

Tao,
Agree, good observation!
There are many techniques that work. EW is just one of them.

 

[steve46]

Quote from onlytronalso:

Steve,
There is a standardized EW principle, but it's not public information.

Then it is of no help the majority of traders...

further if it is not in the public domain, it is AS IF there were no standardized version to refer to.....plain and simple

If it quakes like a duck and has webbed feet....its prob a duck...

Sorry..

and this is why people who might be interested in the subject quickly lose their motivation.....too many excuses....

 

[taowave]

Quote from onlytronalso:

Tao,
Agree, good observation!
There are many techniques that work. EW is just one of them.

If i am not mistaken,there is a very good read called "How I lost $1,000,000 trading commodities"..In the first chapter,the author lists 10 trading rules that we have all heard,yet appear to contradict one another...he also makes the point that one may enter a traded based on fundamentals,another may enter at the same precise entry based on Elliot,and another may enter on some techical condition..

The point is there are many ways to enter a trade,and while 5 traders may enter at the same exact price based on different disciplines,they will all have varying degrees of success based on the exit criteria,money management a nd position size..

Elliot,as with all other disciplines is no more than a general framework for the dicretionary trader to operate within.You may truly believe tht the market unfols in a fibonaccii sequence,but if you dont apply a sound money managemnet to the art of Elliot,you will go the way of the dinosaur

 

[maxpi]

I still recall the book by Prechter that he was selling in 1996... it predicted a crash in 1995. I have a copy of it, it is a classic on EW.

 

[Ebo]

Classic "Rear View Mirror" theory.

 

[onlytronalso]

Quote from steve46:

Then it is of no help the majority of traders...

further if it is not in the public domain, it is AS IF there were no standardized version to refer to.....plain and simple

If it quakes like a duck and has webbed feet....its prob a duck...

Sorry..

and this is why people who might be interested in the subject quickly lose their motivation.....too many excuses....

It can be of help to traditional traders IF they rely on the right sources, and not on their own interpetation after reading a few books.

 

[onlytronalso]

Quote from taowave:

If i am not mistaken,there is a very good read called "How I lost $1,000,000 trading commodities"..In the first chapter,the author lists 10 trading rules that we have all heard,yet appear to contradict one another...he also makes the point that one may enter a traded based on fundamentals,another may enter at the same precise entry based on Elliot,and another may enter on some techical condition..

The point is there are many ways to enter a trade,and while 5 traders may enter at the same exact price based on different disciplines,they will all have varying degrees of success based on the exit criteria,money management a nd position size..

Elliot,as with all other disciplines is no more than a general framework for the dicretionary trader to operate within.You may truly believe tht the market unfols in a fibonaccii sequence,but if you dont apply a sound money managemnet to the art of Elliot,you will go the way of the dinosaur

Agree with most of your statement.
The market does not unfold in a fibonacci sequence. Some would juggle the numbers around to come up with abstract ratio's and say it does. Historically, fibonacci does not hold up.
What does hold up is 5 wave bull markets, and 3 wave bear markets and corrections.
The 'key' is determining where a wave actually begins and ends. As well as, which wave it represents within the overall ongoing structure.
Money management is always the main ingredient to financial success. You may be correct on the market, but wrong in your timing. Money mgmt will keep you in the game until the market moves in your favor. Closing out a position is just as important as getting into one, if not more important. EW allows one to take a position with a high probability of success AND provides a high probability exit point, WHEN intrepreted properly.