Anyone else think Elliot Wave is a bunch of hooey?

Quote from OddTrader:

I suggest every smart trader should use it. :D
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i fully agree..and please let me know when you do,so i can take the other side of your trade:p
 
Quote from dr_strangecraft:

...EW works best in a market with a massive number of suppliers and a massive number of markets. Corn is an excellent example. Probably 35 states in the USA are corn producers, and another 75 nations worldwide...
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That is an interesting observation.

nitro
 
Quote from dr_strangecraft:

EWT is one of my primary trading tools.

I've been trading agricultural commodities since 1992, metals and oil since 1995, and forex starting in 2000.

My trading has been profitable, although I am a 'penny-ante' trader.

Personally, I have found the only useful text on EW is Prechter and Frost's original work. I personally believe that Frost did most of the work. It was FROST who originally predicted the price ranges for the 1974-1987 bull market. After Frost died (and his predictions were fulfilled) Prechter has been as wrong as anyone. As Louis Rukeyser said during a market meltdown in 1997: "Even a broken clock is right twice a day."

I use EWT to help me spot trend reversal. It IS true that there's a bull count and bear count at every point--and I use that fact to construct straddles, when we approach major trendlines.

As a matter of fact. I shorted the euro pretty heavily before bed last night, based on fibo numbers and EW count. I got out this morning because the price has returned to a longterm trend. As soon as I get an identifiable count, I'll construct a straddle that is biased toward the EW count. It helps me figure out stop placement and retracement areas, which are critical for big news.

The trick about EW is that it is like a clockwork. Each element is individually simple, but the casual onlooker is confused by the apparent complexity.

I have found EVERY rule applied as the original Prechter and Frost text shows, works nicely. But the vast majority of practioners make exceptions based on their own emotions.

A lot of people poop on EW, and I certainly understand their prejudice. Wave theory is like fatherhood: it is in and of itself inherently good; the problem is that there's a jillion neanderthals f-ing up in practice and giving it a bad name.
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Like some of the very very basic EW principles;
your comparison of EW to a clock must be to a sucessful manufacturing -inventing of clocks, not telling time.

Honestly I am just not cut out to manufacture clocks;
tell time pretty well,,as most adults do

Every one agrees on time zones & very close to exact time;
Ew is NOT like that at all.
Congrats on you profitable corn trading;
agree with fibo numbers, retracements being much more helpful[and exact and generally helpful , unlike most of EW]

Again your comparison of EW to fatherhood may be helpful in the corn markets;
havent noticed it in indexes.
However some dont like 50dma [i do]& claim back testing proves against 50dma.:cool:

Paul Tudor Jones likes some of it ;
but that could be limited to nunbers 3 or 5.
 
Quote from mmm:

Has anyone here quantifiably and rigorously backtested EW?

Without doing such a test, I don' t think anyone can make any conclusion about the usability of EW.

-- mmm
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I've been a broker for 30 years and I've had a lot of "former" clients who risk their life savings trading based on EW.

Even after losing their life savings, they still "believe" in the system because - "aha, now I see what the 'appropriate' count should have been."

Therefore, the EW trader is "always" RIGHT - if only he had used the alternate count.

Iin another words, the EW trader is never wrong - only misinterpredted the "true" patern.
 
When Elliott Wave patterns always appear in hindsight, it must simply mean one thing: the approach that the majority are using is incorrect. That's how they can consistently miss in real time, what is obviously occurring in real time.
Determine the correct approach and EW will work for you too.
And, it can be backtested.
 
It's got value.

You have to consider testing Elliott Wave (or Gann) in a composite sense...

For example, have you tested Elliott Wave with the wave past patterns into consideration? Multiple timeframe... Multiple resolution... should be considered for testing...
 
If there were a standardized "Elliot Wave" theory to test you might be right. As it is, well it is worse than hooey. it is pure crap....

Sorry
 
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