Anybody else short US 30 Bond

[Cdntrader]

Quote from elisab:

The achievement of the 10 years moving average by the TBond has always coincided with the outbreak of a financial crisis. I think the same will happen this time too, and this will help to lower the rates.

achievement? wtf does that mean?

pardon my language.

 

[elisab]

Quote from Cdntrader:

achievement? wtf does that mean?

pardon my language.

It means the target achieved, the contact with the 10years moving average.

 

[Cdntrader]

Quote from elisab:

It means the target achieved, the contact with the 10years moving average.

So to be clear, you believe this move above the 200 week moving average of the 10 yr is the top for rates?

 

[elisab]

Quote from Cdntrader:

So to be clear, you believe this move above the 200 week moving average of the 10 yr is the top for rates?

I think that exceeding certain levels (see 4.25% on TBond) would reverse a downward trend in interest rates that has lasted for over 20 years. For this reason this level of resistance has to be looked at with respect.

 

[Cdntrader]

Quote from elisab:

I think that exceeding certain levels (see 4.25% on TBond) would reverse a downward trend in interest rates that has lasted for over 20 years. For this reason this level of resistance has to be looked at with respect.

I see.

Thanks.

 

[Optionpro007]

Quote from elisab:

The achievement of the 10 years moving average by the TBond has always coincided with the outbreak of a financial crisis. I think the same will happen this time too, and this will help to lower the rates.

Elisab,

Could you please post a chart showing the US30/10yr SMA's achievement?

Thanks.

 

[pikachu9]

Gundlach thinks 10 year is headed to 3.10% by year end, being lead by EM currencies continuing to spiral lower.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-29/gundlachs-year-end-bond-forecast-revised

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from pikachu9:
Gundlach thinks 10 year is headed to 3.10% by year end, being lead by EM currencies continuing to spiral lower.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-29/gundlachs-year-end-bond-forecast-revised

Surely you mean 2.10, not 3.10?

EDIT: I see that he has actually flipped and is looking for 3.10% by the end of the year. I don't get how that's consistent with an expectation of EM blowup, but whatevers...

 

[elisab]

Quote from pikachu9:

Gundlach thinks 10 year is headed to 3.10% by year end, being lead by EM currencies continuing to spiral lower.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-29/gundlachs-year-end-bond-forecast-revised

And I agree on the idea that the crisis of emerging currences is linked to the rise in U.S. interest rates.

 

[elisab]

The month of August ended with a typical reversal figure known as the hanging man. A very strong monthly signal that could mean a cooling of rates in the coming months.