Anybody else short US 30 Bond
- Thread starter richard_m
- Start date
Agreed....as is my thread on TBT long in options forum (TBT = double short treasuries ETF).
The Fed is just starting operation "twist" and this will keep rates at bay for quite some time.....maybe a year !
Only caveat: inflation starts rearing it's ugly head.....then rates must go higher despite the fed moves...
Murray Ruggiero
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My bond system has had a great run over the past 16 months since release. I posted the results as well as a broker to verify it in my thread below.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=227224
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=227224
Now is the time to short. Yields can't possibly go lower.
Quite possibly. I'd watch for the stock market to keep sliding hard, but the 30 year losing upside momentum, which would be a clue that the buying power is being exhausted. Seems like the case presently, so probably not lot of upside left.
From a LT perspective, it is bumping against a multi-year channel.
Commercials are net short according to the Commitment of Traders report. Small speculators are net long. Sentiment appears to be bullish on bond prices so the contrarians may be taking note. We came out of a seasonal low around May this year, and at the same time treasury prices were valued cheaply vs. gold, key global stock markets and certain commodities (when compared with medium term historical data,) which may be part of the reason why bond prices have increased/yields moved lower. I'll be watching the auctions too over the next couple of months for clues.
I'd like to see an increase in open interest and more capitulation volume on a number of days for me to look for either a market reversal or sideways market with a bias to the downside in bond prices/upside in bond yields. Perhaps my view will change and of course this will depend on incoming data.
I'd like to see an increase in open interest and more capitulation volume on a number of days for me to look for either a market reversal or sideways market with a bias to the downside in bond prices/upside in bond yields. Perhaps my view will change and of course this will depend on incoming data.
Why do people keep saying we can't go any lower. Ever take a look at JGBs?
Nobody knows when the long end will implode, certainly not me, and not even Bernanke.
But he'll ultimately lose control just like the ECB or any other entity that tries to fix long maturities for any extended period of time.
If you're long US 10's at 1.35% (using JGB's as justification), you're no different than someone with money in Madoff's fund who knows it's a Ponzi yet wants to get one more year of 20% returns.
PS - Ever seen Spanish bonds, Greek bonds, or Argentinian bonds?
But he'll ultimately lose control just like the ECB or any other entity that tries to fix long maturities for any extended period of time.
If you're long US 10's at 1.35% (using JGB's as justification), you're no different than someone with money in Madoff's fund who knows it's a Ponzi yet wants to get one more year of 20% returns.
PS - Ever seen Spanish bonds, Greek bonds, or Argentinian bonds?
Sorry, I don't day trade based off of a possible 10 year outlook on bonds. People have been saying the same thing for years. Rates can't possibly go lower. One day you'll be right though. If you're aiming for financial armegeddon, go ahead. We'll have other things to worry about if it happens than what the interest rates are.
