I would like to add, that I am only voicing my personal opinion knowing that what you do is none of my business, and I mean to wish you well. I also wanted to mention that I have been were you are a few too many times, so I can understand your perspective. Not a cool place to be.
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Anybody else short US 30 Bond
- Thread starter richard_m
- Start date
I would like to add, that I am only voicing my personal opinion knowing that what you do is none of my business, and I mean to wish you well. I also wanted to mention that I have been were you are a few too many times, so I can understand your perspective. Not a cool place to be.
Here is why bad news is good news and good news is bad news which should mean that is good news but wouldn't that be bad news? Confusion is here to stay!
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo100810.pdf
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo100810.pdf
Quote from Optionpro007:
I would like to add, that I am only voicing my personal opinion knowing that what you do is none of my business, and I mean to wish you well. I also wanted to mention that I have been were you are a few too many times, so I can understand your perspective. Not a cool place to be.
Yes I end up gambling again. Not the first time. Right now 1 point on ZN costs me 25% of my account from average price of 126 12
Grave situation. I had 2 chances to get out with 5% or so but my unwillingness to lose are leading me to the cleaners.
The problem is that losing 5% is way to big for me so I couldn't do it. It seems that I much prefer to lose 50% to keep the chance that I could be whole again.
When it got to -20% -25% it became surreal. The amount is so big that I don't see it as real.
Quote from ivanbaj:
Yes I end up gambling again. Not the first time. Right now 1 point on ZN costs me 25% of my account from average price of 126 12
Grave situation. I had 2 chances to get out with 5% or so but my unwillingness to lose are leading me to the cleaners.
The problem is that losing 5% is way to big for me so I couldn't do it. It seems that I much prefer to lose 50% to keep the chance that I could be whole again.
When it got to -20% -25% it became surreal. The amount is so big that I don't see it as real.
Risk control is the key to trading I may bitch and moan on this board about the Fed and Bernanke but when I hit my downside limit for the day, week, etc... I am flat and re evaluate what I am doing that is the reason I have been able to trade cash/futures for 8 years. RISK CONTROL - it took me blowing out my own account and going to an FCM in Chicago to learn how to trade to do this but it happens to most everyone who trades.
Quote from ivanbaj:
Can you help understand few things?
If the yen is going up how is that related to the ZN? The japanies will want to sell or buy treasuries? And why?
How about the Chinese?
If QE II comes short of the expectations the market will go down will ZN go down too?
the problem right now is to not over-think anything I am pissed the long end is not going down and the 10/30 spread is approaching 140-150 BP but we are in times never seen before and nothing seems to be correlated right now in the financials not gold, not the curve, not spooz and not currencies. just trade what you see and try not to understand it will help your trading. Why ask just trade what you see...
P.S. Asians are always bid for our paper that is why the Chinese keep their currency down and the Japanese Bank keeps intervening for exports as well...
If yen goes up (USDJPY goes down), the Japanese are likely, all else being equal, to give a bid to treasuries. As to why, just ask yourself what happens when the BoJ intervenes?Quote from ivanbaj:
Can you help understand few things?
If the yen is going up how is that related to the ZN? The japanies will want to sell or buy treasuries? And why?
How about the Chinese?
If QE II comes short of the expectations the market will go down will ZN go down too?
The Chinese is an entirely separate dynamic altogether...
Axel Weber says ECB bond purchases should be phased out and the only intelligent one on the FED Hoenig the hawk says "asset purchases a very risky strategy says benfits of asset purchases on economy likely smaller than costs." Finally someone has their head of their a$$ he has been saying this for months yet outvoted by dovish prick$....