this is just rediculous, no retracement what so ever! ten yields are lowest since Lehman blew out I fucking hate Bernanke I mean hate him! Blowout me today kept getting short over 135!!! come on bondo!
Anybody else short US 30 Bond
- Thread starter richard_m
- Start date
this is just rediculous, no retracement what so ever! ten yields are lowest since Lehman blew out I fucking hate Bernanke I mean hate him! Blowout me today kept getting short over 135!!! come on bondo!
Well, the only question now is the size of QE2.
I am still short. But this by far is my biggest mistake ever.
Free lesson for you (that will probably cost me alot). Take your losses as soon as the price does the opposite of what you have expected. Do not hope, do not reason just take it.....
Now I am forced to be a top picker
Buying now has limited potential compared of being short. To close my position I have to buy 
$%@^&@
P.S. They can take their QE II and shove it up their a$$es. I wish I had a printing press.
Free lesson for you (that will probably cost me alot). Take your losses as soon as the price does the opposite of what you have expected. Do not hope, do not reason just take it.....
Now I am forced to be a top picker
Buying now has limited potential compared of being short. To close my position I have to buy $%@^&@P.S. They can take their QE II and shove it up their a$$es. I wish I had a printing press.
Nice pullback but I am so far up my a$$ that there is no relieve for me yet.
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Music in my ears! I like this guy:
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/175424.aspx
I have bet the farm on this!
"PLAIN AND SIMPLE: This implies the Fed's communication strategy is CRUCIAL! And it is. If the Fed wants to spark some inflation, the Fed needs to make people believe inflation they mean business about avoiding deflation. Of course a huge budget deficit combined with poor growth prospects should be enough motivation for that, but fiscal concerns just don't outweigh flight to safety demand, not yet at least. Nonetheless, Ben felt the need to talk about fiscal policy last Friday ....he isn't supposed to be talking about the budget in regard to specific executive policies like HEALTH CARE. CONTROL + F and search "HEALTH CARE" in this speech. Weird. Not sure why he crossed that line. Maybe he is tired of getting poked and prodded by Congress and wanted to take his own shot? Doubtful. Not his style IMO. Anyway, in regard to the crucialness of the Fed's communication strategy, "Shock and Awe" seems like a necessary evil if the Fed is to successfully put the fear of inflation back in the minds of America (the World). Rate hike anyone????
One thing is obvious: the Fed is looking to spark a little inflation. Bond yields do not like inflation. How would the Fed manage to control inflation without pushing mortgage rates higher? Eh. Maybe not a big deal. Low rates are not the solution to the problems of the housing market so higher rates aren't necessarily a bad thing. As long as the average 30-year fixed is below 5.00%, housing will get by. I think the Fed could pull this off with targeted MBS purchases in the production side of the stack (Bernanke said more MBS purchases were possible at Jackson Hole). Plus, just because we're talking about inflation doesn't mean the US recovery is going to turn on a dime. The economic environment is expected to remain highly supportive of low mortgage rates, all on its own. The road ahead is LOOOOONG. We should all get used to it...."
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/175424.aspx
I have bet the farm on this!
"PLAIN AND SIMPLE: This implies the Fed's communication strategy is CRUCIAL! And it is. If the Fed wants to spark some inflation, the Fed needs to make people believe inflation they mean business about avoiding deflation. Of course a huge budget deficit combined with poor growth prospects should be enough motivation for that, but fiscal concerns just don't outweigh flight to safety demand, not yet at least. Nonetheless, Ben felt the need to talk about fiscal policy last Friday ....he isn't supposed to be talking about the budget in regard to specific executive policies like HEALTH CARE. CONTROL + F and search "HEALTH CARE" in this speech. Weird. Not sure why he crossed that line. Maybe he is tired of getting poked and prodded by Congress and wanted to take his own shot? Doubtful. Not his style IMO. Anyway, in regard to the crucialness of the Fed's communication strategy, "Shock and Awe" seems like a necessary evil if the Fed is to successfully put the fear of inflation back in the minds of America (the World). Rate hike anyone????
One thing is obvious: the Fed is looking to spark a little inflation. Bond yields do not like inflation. How would the Fed manage to control inflation without pushing mortgage rates higher? Eh. Maybe not a big deal. Low rates are not the solution to the problems of the housing market so higher rates aren't necessarily a bad thing. As long as the average 30-year fixed is below 5.00%, housing will get by. I think the Fed could pull this off with targeted MBS purchases in the production side of the stack (Bernanke said more MBS purchases were possible at Jackson Hole). Plus, just because we're talking about inflation doesn't mean the US recovery is going to turn on a dime. The economic environment is expected to remain highly supportive of low mortgage rates, all on its own. The road ahead is LOOOOONG. We should all get used to it...."
More music:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/228892-qe2-beware-of-the-bernanke-bluff
Despite all the rhetoric propounded by Bernanke and FRB presidents Dudley, Evans, Bullard and even Fed bureaucrat Brian Sack who heads the New York Fedâs open market operations, if investors carefully weighed all the information they might begin to realize why an additional round of QE2 might not occur. For every statement the Fed has made promoting the benefits of QE2, they have counterbalanced it with cautionary statements about the diminishing effects and costs of initiating a new program.
It is estimated that the current size of the Fedâs balance sheet is the equivalent of 16% of GDP. Since over $1 trillion in excess reserves are already sitting at the Fed, how do they expect to get results from QE2 before the current excess reserves are moved out of the Fed and work their way through the economy? As Minneapolis FRB president Narayana Kocherlakota noted: âI do not see why they (banks) would suddenly start to use the new ones if they werenât using the old ones.â
Philadelphia FRB president Charles Plosser commented that âIt is difficult, in my view, to see how additional asset purchases by the Fed, even if they move interest rates on long term bonds down by 10 or 20 basis points, will have much impact on the near-term outlook for employment.â[1] And the effect of QE2 on lowering mortgage rates will have little economic effect at this point as those who qualify for refinancing have already done so, as have corporations that are stockpiling cash.
Banks cannot lend long when they risk an increased cost of funding in the future. They cannot pay less than 0% for deposits, and the interest revenue from loans keeps going down which squeezes their interest rate margins (IRMs). Meanwhile bank regulators (which includes the Fed) are telling banks to watch the maturities because of the interest rate risk which further constrains banks from lending long. Banks are only willing to issue 30 year fixed rate mortgages if they are guaranteed by the federal government through Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB) and can be sold.
If the Fed emulated the Bank of Japan, it would have to buy futures contracts or broad-based ETFs based upon the S&P500 (SPY) and the Russell 1000 (IWB) which would make any money manager except for those firms managing the ETFs such as BlackRock (BLK) and State Street (STT) irrelevant. Investment bankers are becoming worried that nearly zero rates for an âextended periodâ could impact the financial services industry worse than FINREG.
The Fed has created what I call the reverse Robin Hood effect: consumers with the worst credit are subsidizing those with the best credit who can get money cheaply and they are paying an extremely high interest rate on their credit cards. Most consumers with top credit scores who qualify for extremely low rate loans have already done so. Many of these consumers are suffering from low interest income, especially retirees. A drastic cutback in interest income is pushing retirees to take more risk which is dangerous since time is not on their side to recover from investment losses. Low interest income has also greatly curtailed many retirees discretionary spending.
Talk therapy is a whole lot cheaper than another $500 billion+ round of quantitative easing. The Fed appears to be stalling for time, hoping that economic conditions will have strengthened enough before the market realizes theyâre bluffing.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/228892-qe2-beware-of-the-bernanke-bluff
Despite all the rhetoric propounded by Bernanke and FRB presidents Dudley, Evans, Bullard and even Fed bureaucrat Brian Sack who heads the New York Fedâs open market operations, if investors carefully weighed all the information they might begin to realize why an additional round of QE2 might not occur. For every statement the Fed has made promoting the benefits of QE2, they have counterbalanced it with cautionary statements about the diminishing effects and costs of initiating a new program.
It is estimated that the current size of the Fedâs balance sheet is the equivalent of 16% of GDP. Since over $1 trillion in excess reserves are already sitting at the Fed, how do they expect to get results from QE2 before the current excess reserves are moved out of the Fed and work their way through the economy? As Minneapolis FRB president Narayana Kocherlakota noted: âI do not see why they (banks) would suddenly start to use the new ones if they werenât using the old ones.â
Philadelphia FRB president Charles Plosser commented that âIt is difficult, in my view, to see how additional asset purchases by the Fed, even if they move interest rates on long term bonds down by 10 or 20 basis points, will have much impact on the near-term outlook for employment.â[1] And the effect of QE2 on lowering mortgage rates will have little economic effect at this point as those who qualify for refinancing have already done so, as have corporations that are stockpiling cash.
Banks cannot lend long when they risk an increased cost of funding in the future. They cannot pay less than 0% for deposits, and the interest revenue from loans keeps going down which squeezes their interest rate margins (IRMs). Meanwhile bank regulators (which includes the Fed) are telling banks to watch the maturities because of the interest rate risk which further constrains banks from lending long. Banks are only willing to issue 30 year fixed rate mortgages if they are guaranteed by the federal government through Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB) and can be sold.
If the Fed emulated the Bank of Japan, it would have to buy futures contracts or broad-based ETFs based upon the S&P500 (SPY) and the Russell 1000 (IWB) which would make any money manager except for those firms managing the ETFs such as BlackRock (BLK) and State Street (STT) irrelevant. Investment bankers are becoming worried that nearly zero rates for an âextended periodâ could impact the financial services industry worse than FINREG.
The Fed has created what I call the reverse Robin Hood effect: consumers with the worst credit are subsidizing those with the best credit who can get money cheaply and they are paying an extremely high interest rate on their credit cards. Most consumers with top credit scores who qualify for extremely low rate loans have already done so. Many of these consumers are suffering from low interest income, especially retirees. A drastic cutback in interest income is pushing retirees to take more risk which is dangerous since time is not on their side to recover from investment losses. Low interest income has also greatly curtailed many retirees discretionary spending.
Talk therapy is a whole lot cheaper than another $500 billion+ round of quantitative easing. The Fed appears to be stalling for time, hoping that economic conditions will have strengthened enough before the market realizes theyâre bluffing.
bro ADP gave mkt cause to think of QE I would not hold a position that is against you going into NFP. 3 to 4 ticks is noise by the way and there are 32 ticks in 1 point or handle, tick goes 127.05 to 127.055 to 127.06 that is 2 half ticks in every tick 32 ticks to a handle in ZN where the two's and five's have quarter ticks and the ZB has full ticks. Just trying to get your terminology correct from the sound of your posts you may not have the equity to take an algo/Pimco jimmy jam so have a stop in and don't let one trade blow you out.
good luck with NFP the ZN is at/near the yearly high and ZB is not far from it. the ten year yield yesterday was the lowest since the Da brothers Lehman went down (late 08 early 09) Bernanke has that much effect so dont get in the way of the freight train profit from the carnage. I remember the day when the Fed did a 300 B QE in early 09 think the 10 year cash popped 5 handles!!!! so be careful... I personally think QE is stupid what do I know.
P.S. Plosser is a tosser all that matters is Big Ben...