You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Anybody else short US 30 Bond
- Thread starter richard_m
- Start date
Quote from johnpinochet:
Just got back in after being out for a few hours. Today is a no news day and I wasn't going to trade. Had I been trading I would have bought and sold a range.
Right now (1029 EST) I see the 10 year is up to almost reach its 0825 EST high. Any news that I missed? I was going to take today off, but this jump up to 114 and change at 1029 EST is very tempting to short. The one thing preventing me from doing this is that this has all of the signs of what I call a classic "V" day. Make a killing on the way down, and lose it all shorting on the way back up.
My DVD copy of "The International" is calling. Perhaps I should stick with the original "no trading today" plan. ;-)
"The International" is a B movie. Just like the market today. I would short around 10.5 if it gets that high.
Thanks zbtrader. I'm just browsing news sites right now with a very small quote window open on the ZN no trades yet, and I just don't like the look of it to short it now at 1103 EST. When I can't figure out why we bounced up roughly 1/2 point from today's low, that means I don't understand the day and I should not do anything.
In any event, I wasn't even supposed to look today, but I turned on the PC and decided to fire up my software just out of curiosity.
Oh well, the boss is calling reminding me that this is movie night, not trading night. Good trading all. If anyone has the inside scoop on the run up from the lows let me know.
Just watch, who wants to bet that we retest the lows? Wouldn't that be something? I'm not being serious by the way. I don't see how a retest of the lows is possible today.
See everyone next week.
In any event, I wasn't even supposed to look today, but I turned on the PC and decided to fire up my software just out of curiosity.
Oh well, the boss is calling reminding me that this is movie night, not trading night. Good trading all. If anyone has the inside scoop on the run up from the lows let me know.
Just watch, who wants to bet that we retest the lows? Wouldn't that be something? I'm not being serious by the way. I don't see how a retest of the lows is possible today.
See everyone next week.
Quote from johnpinochet:
Just watch, who wants to bet that we retest the lows? Wouldn't that be something? I'm not being serious by the way. I don't see how a retest of the lows is possible today.
See everyone next week. [/B]
Probably not today. My guess is short squeeze today and more selling next week(after FOMC?!). But, who knows. With the market so thin, it can go either way--and very quickly.
Quote from johnpinochet:
Thanks zbtrader. I'm just browsing news sites right now with a very small quote window open on the ZN no trades yet, and I just don't like the look of it to short it now at 1103 EST. When I can't figure out why we bounced up roughly 1/2 point from today's low, that means I don't understand the day and I should not do anything.
In any event, I wasn't even supposed to look today, but I turned on the PC and decided to fire up my software just out of curiosity.
Oh well, the boss is calling reminding me that this is movie night, not trading night. Good trading all. If anyone has the inside scoop on the run up from the lows let me know.
Just watch, who wants to bet that we retest the lows? Wouldn't that be something? I'm not being serious by the way. I don't see how a retest of the lows is possible today.
See everyone next week.
I cannot begin to tell you how much money the above analysis has saved me over the last few years since I started to consistently trade semi-professionally.
You can write this down and post it in your list of important things to do when trading the ZN. Keep in mind that this applies to the ZN as I've seen it behave over the last few years. As time passes and markets change, this may not apply anymore. Here it goes:
"Whenever the ZN has dropped 16 ticks or more, forms an obvious pivot low, and over the course of an hour comes back to the pivot high established just prior to the drop, then a foundational shift has occurred in the market. All analysis that led you to successfully trade the drop must be thrown out."
Keep in mind that on a day like today, based on my analysis over the years, one can at a minimum lose all of the earlier gains. The worst case scenario is you lose a week's worth of gains.
In any event, my spidey sense was right, and I'm glad I watched my movie instead.
Attachments
By the way, the previous post will save you a lot of money. Read my post on linear regression channels to learn how to see the change much earlier than the return to the early morning high. I can look at the plain chart I posted and picture immediately in my mind where the upper channel was violated.
Generally I am an idiot savant, but recently I have noticed that ZB and ZN behave very different around points of interest (pivots, VAH, VAL, POC, YH, YL).
ZB really moves (after overshooting a bit) allowing for some scalping while ZN does not provide the same opportunities.
Has anyone developed a stratefy to take advantage of this?
e.b.
ZB really moves (after overshooting a bit) allowing for some scalping while ZN does not provide the same opportunities.
Has anyone developed a stratefy to take advantage of this?
e.b.
the curve is all about big paper having to get things done in the end most analysis does not do $hit trust me I have lost and made a lot of $ the last couple of months there IS NO RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT the last 3-4 months has shown us this. Look at the curve and keep opinions out, trade what you see and not what you think even though I say this at times I do not do what I say. Treasuries have been very difficult to trade recently just don't come on here and think you know what the F$ck you are talking about because right now no one knows- dealers under water with auctions, negative repo, just try to get some and get the F$ck out. this $hit is crazy random moves with so much size when Algo's and big players puke and that's about it. If you are REALLY trading these markets then you know if you are a Sim piker then you don't. Got it?
i noticed a possible elliot wave in the making with a target of 127 and change. I would be very careful about holding losing positions in the Bonds. I know this guy that shorted bonds at 117 before it ran up to 139 and got his sphincter stretched about 6 inches. Remember the market can stay illogical far longer than we can stay liquid. however i could be wrong and bonds go to 111 or 109. Options would be a better strategy for holding these long term.
this past week I really wish I was a sim piker! LOL!