Anybody else short US 30 Bond

Quote from invertedCurve:

I hope you all were short! 126.18 is 50% retracement of whole move in ZB we only pierced it once in the afternoon session yesterday low today was 126.16 in the am that level should be good for a bounce area or area of interest now going in the future. I bought 126.19 yesterday and took a nice profit out of em, good luck and good trading I caught the pop this morning in ZN and am heading home.
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Your best move was going home after catching that rally. ZN's been running in its place for the past 2.5 hrs. 26.5/27 resistance on the way up is now massive support; few flurries over even and no follow thru. It blows. Time for a brew.
 
did any of y'all make any money off my level? (126.18) I rarely give out specific trades levels but that was money all day! hollah at at playah when you see him in da streets!
 
A Major support at 128 was broken for ZB. On Thursday, the feds couldn't sell their 30b treasury notes so they had to raise yield.

I did not find out about the news until the next day.

However, i noticed ZB had major problems trying to rally when the stock market was dropping bad.(their prices move opposite usually). That was a good indicator of how weak the Tbonds were. The break was rather slow and agonizing but when it finally did, it went down pretty hard.
 
Delivery of New U.S. Treasury 7-Year Notes Against
CBOT 10-Year Treasury Note Futures Contracts
The U.S. Treasury Department announced this morning that it will commence regular monthly issuance of 7-year notes. These note issuances will be dated at the end of each month, similar to 2-year and 5-year Treasury notes. The first such 7-year note
issue will be auctioned on Thursday, February 26, dated February 28, and settled on March 2, 2009. For more information, please see the February 2009 Quarterly
Refunding Statement at http://www.treasury.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debtmanagement/
quarterly-refunding/02-04-2009/policy-statement.pdf
Pursuant to CBOT Rule 19101.A. (“Contract Grade”), which specifies the contract deliverable grade standards for CBOT Long-Term U.S. Treasury Note futures, new issues of U.S. Treasury notes that satisfy those standards shall be added to the contract
deliverable grade as they are issued. Accordingly, subject to the exception below, any 7-year note issuance by the U.S. Treasury that meets the deliverable grade standards for an expiring contract (in particular, in having a remaining term to maturity of 6 ½ to 10 years) will be deliverable into the expiring contract.
In the event that a monthly 7-year note is settled on or after an
expiring futures contract’s last delivery date, that 7-year note
will not be deliverable against the expiring contract.
For example, for futures expiring in March 2009, the 7-year note settled on March 2,2009, will be eligible for delivery; however, the 7-year note settled on March 31, 2009,will not be eligible for delivery because the settle date coincides with the contract’s last delivery date. This exception aims to avoid potential operational difficulties that may arise in the delivery process. It is made under the authority of CBOT Rule 19101.A., which provides
for the Exchange to exclude any new issue from the contract grade.

This will be interesting since the ZN is esentially a 7 yr contract might shift me into the 7 yr cash instead of the 10 yr cash big players will trade the 5, 7 and 10 against a lot of contracts.
 
Ten Year Cash failed to stay over 3% yield yesterday, supply concerns aside we will see how the curve treats this. Bailout plan obscurity is good for curve. 126 area seems like a base for ZB for the short term going forward.
 
By the way I saw a Bloomberg interview the other day with Tony Crescenzi , Chief Bond Market Strategist at Miller Tabak.

One of the interesting things he said was that he had a rule that had held true for many years "supply only matters in bear markets for Treasuries."

He said that what anchors Treasuries is the Fed Funds rate and the low inflation rate. These will prevent a substantial rise in rates, he said.

Of course we could be entering a bear market but I'm not convinced we are just yet.

I'm staying long (but I trade in and out a bit).

I see I have some good company in Ray Dalio, who says in a Barrons interview that he is long the pair of Treasuries and Gold. He anticipates continuing economic weakness.
 
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