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Anybody else short US 30 Bond
- Thread starter richard_m
- Start date
Pretty empty book this morning. Are all of the bond traders at the inauguration?
caught the first sell off then the first rally and went home to watch Obama. Looks like I missed a slow boring grind upward as spooz slowing ground into the 800 ish scary level...Let's see what happens this week with Obama and Geitner hitting the ground running we are issuing a $hitload of debt and all of that supply can't be good for the Long End it sold off hard this morning- Bear Steepening that was interesting. Maybe we are stuck in this range, when we break out of it do not be on the wrong side. Trade what you see and don't have an opinion and try to fade the freight train or you will be on Monster.com sooner than you think!
Quote from invertedCurve:
Let's see what happens this week with Obama and Geitner hitting the ground running we are issuing a $hitload of debt and all of that supply can't be good for the Long End [/B]
if the FED buys all the shit (like they said they would do) then long end can still go up further.
ZB is now caught between the large supply coming and the possibility of FED interventions on the long end.
Trading will be tough under these circumstances with large erratic moves. I am waiting for the FED really starting to buy the long end and waiting for it to fail. If that happens you can put all your margin into a ZB short and ride it down to the 70's.
all you postion traders should think about using the 10Y, the bond is so thin that it could stop you out very easily.
lol at the monster.com coment
lol at the monster.com coment
I'm with Topsurfi on this one. I'm still long ZB in fact for only one reason, the fed re-iterated yesterday that they are going to continue to buy treasuries. You can see that every time the $tyx rises above 3% an invisible hand comes in and props the futures. The fed has massive breathing room with the current dis-inflationary pressures.
Quote from RiceRocket:
I'm with Topsurfi on this one. I'm still long ZB in fact for only one reason, the fed re-iterated yesterday that they are going to continue to buy treasuries. You can see that every time the $tyx rises above 3% an invisible hand comes in and props the futures. The fed has massive breathing room with the current dis-inflationary pressures.
last time i checked the fed balance sheet the fed still did not touch the market at all, i.e. they are not buying yet.
Quote from robustdeus:
all you postion traders should think about using the 10Y, the bond is so thin that it could stop you out very easily.
lol at the monster.com coment
yeah I sold the ZN then bought the 10 cash before it bounced. The bond is so thin that I trade 2 lots then add to em so I don't get f$cked on a ten tick sweep. At least the ten year is getting thicker usually 300 by 400 which is nice to see so you can manage a bigger trade.
Quote from dhpar:
last time i checked the fed balance sheet the fed still did not touch the market at all, i.e. they are not buying yet. [/QUOTE
you are right. Up to now there are only verbal inverventions.
Its like interventions in the currency market. Its very risky because you absolutely have to be the winner, otherwise its a catastrophy.
In the end the FED will fail and we are running into problems where the current drop of the stockmarket will look minor in comparison.
if they (ZB) stay under 132 and the TY cash stays under 2.5% yield look out below (110.27+ in the outright cash) 2.75 here we come? The only thing to offset this is that everyone in the EU including the UK debt ratings could drop under AAA that would be bad for them, good for dollar bad for gold, etc...Credit Defaults swaps are out again today on Euro debt they were more leveraged than we were!