You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Anybody else short US 30 Bond
- Thread starter richard_m
- Start date
ooops, better be gone quick...
what's it gonna do?
done for today.....
what's it gonna do?
done for today.....
relentless move.
Quote from bali_survivor:
I think it looks more that some bigger players got badly whipsawed.... more room left to the upside at this moment ... looks like it wants to move up again....
May have some more upside, but looking at the parabolic rise in the chart the past month reminds me a lot of the parabolic blow off we saw with oil. Fortunately, I've got enough cash to play with to keep a fairly wide stop. We'll see how it goes.
Bernanke now being quoted as saying Fed is considering buying large quantities of long-dated Treasuries in the open market, presumably to drive long rates even further down.
The 10-year is in the 2s, not really clear to me how moving ZIRP to the long end of the curve is going to be sustainable, much less help anyone, but then I'm not the Fed chair so what do I know?
The 10-year is in the 2s, not really clear to me how moving ZIRP to the long end of the curve is going to be sustainable, much less help anyone, but then I'm not the Fed chair so what do I know?
Quote from zboy2854A:
May have some more upside, but looking at the parabolic rise in the chart the past month reminds me a lot of the parabolic blow off we saw with oil. Fortunately, I've got enough cash to play with to keep a fairly wide stop. We'll see how it goes.
Lesson's I've learned this year (on shorting crude). I called the top successfully (see http://scriabinop23.blogspot.com/2008/06/historic-analysis-of-crude-against-30.html) but I made no money on the trade, only lost a ton. And gave up when things finally matched my prognostication (because I was so beaten). All mainly poor money management.
1) It will take a lot longer than you expect for it to collapse in your favor.
2) Stops, options buying too large and too short term all killed me.
3) Contemplate the sustainability of the move.. Here the fed (and the market view) can support these prices for a long time... 10 yr yields in the 40s were under 2% for extended periods of time.
In other words, keep leverage low, enter the trade and forget about it. Otherwise, nothing about this thing is a short (especially on short term time frames on leverage).
yep, never stand in front of a speeding train....
Maria
Maria
Quote from dhpar:
* housing bubble
* spending bubble
* commodity bubble
* treasuries bubble
what have all these in common?
yes - fed setting rates too low or doing quantitative easing....
this is f#cking unbelievable...
Don't forget to include the stock bubble that preceded the others. But yep, America has become the land of the rolling bubbles. And this one will end just the same as the others.