Anybody else short US 30 Bond

Quote from Cutten:

I'm still short, in fact I added a bit today. IMO bonds trade like total garbage - they can't rally on stock declines, they puke on stock rallies, they have broken to new lows, and we haven't even had a really big down day or two yet. We are no where near any kind of capitulation of panic amongst the longs. If this is how they trade with the VIX in the 60s and 70s, one wonders what would happen if stocks were to mount a serious rebound and if volatility collapsed. Bonds could fall 10% in a month easily.

Another factor is the lack of liquidity, and the positioning of most players. There are a TON of institutions who are long US bonds by the truckload, they fled out of stocks into fixed income for security in the last month or two. Now, what happens when all of a sudden these guys want to unload hundreds of billions of bonds, at the same time as the govt is increasing its debt financing needs, and the market is bid on 5 or 10 lots? Anyone trying to get out in size is going to be murdered.

I don't know how low this can go, but as long as they keep acting weak I will stay short. The 30 year seems the best play.
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I think some unwinding of those steepeners began last weekend..also there are iceberg orders on TT helping those large institutions to manage their positions... :eek:
 
Quote from Susannah:

What is the nominal yield for the 30 year bond? I've searched a little, but am having trouble finding the info.
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4.194 %

I am not sure that is what you are looking for, that's $tyx.x
 
Quote from Surdo:

4.194 %

I am not sure that is what you are looking for, that's $tyx.x
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Isn't that the current yield? I was looking for the nominal yield so I can calculate from the price it's selling for what the yield is. I can look at Yahoo Finance for the current yield, which is calculated from the price, but I'm not sure what price they're using (delayed or not, the futures market, etc).
 
I've built a position, I'm thinking of adding the last of it today or tomorrow, it's a hedge, I think our dollar's going to fall (maybe really hard and fast) and that's how I'm going to play it. Not leveraging for now so I can take a lot of heat, but might short term once a downtrend is re-established.
 
TY basis is on full tilt! every one lot I put on is minimum 1250 dollar risk! My P&L whips around like a ... damn I love spooz...bonds are behaving a little better as long as you don't get caught in the 5-6 tick sweepers! ha!
 
Quote from Susannah:

So, these are the correct cash prices for the treasuries?

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/

Is there always such a discrepancy between the cash price and the price of the nearest timeframe future contract price? (referring to the 30-year)
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yes there is that difference is basis trading, another site to look at is
http://www.espeed.com or
http://www.icap.com (brokertech)
P.S. that rally today was sick, someone buying 1000-2000 lots at every high (while the Ten year piddled in a 3 tick range!) and the sell off after the pit closed was gnarly as well!
 
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