R
Ronin08
First time in many years the VIX count goes to 17. Now the Down count begins at # 1...
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Anybody else short US 30 Bond
- Thread starter richard_m
- Start date
you guys still hanging onto your shorts?
im still short from 123
started buying calls though which i been buying in the 113s , got lots of dec 117 and 119 strikes (many more than the short futures)
if this thing were to pop back to 119 i would make like a fortune
if it were to fall to 103 same thing
im still short from 123
started buying calls though which i been buying in the 113s , got lots of dec 117 and 119 strikes (many more than the short futures)
if this thing were to pop back to 119 i would make like a fortune
if it were to fall to 103 same thing
Yes, I'm still short
I'm still short, in fact I added a bit today. IMO bonds trade like total garbage - they can't rally on stock declines, they puke on stock rallies, they have broken to new lows, and we haven't even had a really big down day or two yet. We are no where near any kind of capitulation of panic amongst the longs. If this is how they trade with the VIX in the 60s and 70s, one wonders what would happen if stocks were to mount a serious rebound and if volatility collapsed. Bonds could fall 10% in a month easily.
Another factor is the lack of liquidity, and the positioning of most players. There are a TON of institutions who are long US bonds by the truckload, they fled out of stocks into fixed income for security in the last month or two. Now, what happens when all of a sudden these guys want to unload hundreds of billions of bonds, at the same time as the govt is increasing its debt financing needs, and the market is bid on 5 or 10 lots? Anyone trying to get out in size is going to be murdered.
I don't know how low this can go, but as long as they keep acting weak I will stay short. The 30 year seems the best play.
Another factor is the lack of liquidity, and the positioning of most players. There are a TON of institutions who are long US bonds by the truckload, they fled out of stocks into fixed income for security in the last month or two. Now, what happens when all of a sudden these guys want to unload hundreds of billions of bonds, at the same time as the govt is increasing its debt financing needs, and the market is bid on 5 or 10 lots? Anyone trying to get out in size is going to be murdered.
I don't know how low this can go, but as long as they keep acting weak I will stay short. The 30 year seems the best play.
R
Ronin08
The 30yr is going higher
pretty much everyone on this thread has been shorting except for you
anyways only question now is if we get a bounce to 116/117 for a re-entry short, or keep the shorts open
I think we get that bounce, i think im going to cover my shorts and take the chance, I think the market is so thin right now that it will be easy for the govt and its arms to manipulate it back up a bit (they ain't that dumb, they know if they let 30 year tbonds collapse, the housing market will begin a new leg down immediately)
and cutten you are right about the depth of market its insane. I trade in 50 contract size trades, and for the first time in my life I have actually been moving the ZB 1 or 2 ticks, I just can't believe it.
anyways only question now is if we get a bounce to 116/117 for a re-entry short, or keep the shorts open
I think we get that bounce, i think im going to cover my shorts and take the chance, I think the market is so thin right now that it will be easy for the govt and its arms to manipulate it back up a bit (they ain't that dumb, they know if they let 30 year tbonds collapse, the housing market will begin a new leg down immediately)
and cutten you are right about the depth of market its insane. I trade in 50 contract size trades, and for the first time in my life I have actually been moving the ZB 1 or 2 ticks, I just can't believe it.
R
Ronin08
The monthly close that would increase the probabilities of a deflation/depression:
Crude a monthly close below $84.59
If Crude closes below 82.10 basis Dec, then the probability of a deflation/depression increases. There are other ominous signs on the interest rate front.
In the FT October 17 issue, mortgage rates in the US had started to spike up. In the article âUS mortgage rates spike on bailoutâ, the FT article said that homebuyers âface a leap of 50 bpâ. If this trend continues, the US will see an exacerbation of the sub-prime problem.
The key will be the CPI numbers. So far the according to ShadowStats the âofficial fiddleâ continues and expected to continue until after the elections. Once that is over, some authenticity will need to be reintroduced if the numbers are to have any credibility with Main Street USA. Should they start to spike up as expected, we can see the second wave of crisis hit home.
Crude a monthly close below $84.59
If Crude closes below 82.10 basis Dec, then the probability of a deflation/depression increases. There are other ominous signs on the interest rate front.
In the FT October 17 issue, mortgage rates in the US had started to spike up. In the article âUS mortgage rates spike on bailoutâ, the FT article said that homebuyers âface a leap of 50 bpâ. If this trend continues, the US will see an exacerbation of the sub-prime problem.
The key will be the CPI numbers. So far the according to ShadowStats the âofficial fiddleâ continues and expected to continue until after the elections. Once that is over, some authenticity will need to be reintroduced if the numbers are to have any credibility with Main Street USA. Should they start to spike up as expected, we can see the second wave of crisis hit home.