You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Anybody else short US 30 Bond
- Thread starter richard_m
- Start date
Quote from EDCurve:
I agree inverted. these markets are crazy. im a little sacared to step in front of it. have you seen the 5-10-30 fly?
yeah I saw it talked about on an industry letter today. That ride down was rough also 5 ticks down 4 ticks up all the way down, glad I was green! I thought last month was volatile these markets today are too much, I want it to go back to a month ago.
R
Ronin08
Quote from invertedCurve:
The YIELD sure went up today.
-2 handles+
no reason to call anyone names, the ZB went up because the bailout package failed it came right back to where it was before the bailout vote failure. We'll see what happens going into next week. If they do this package it will add so much debt that they (gov't) have to issue that ZB should go down but we are still in a bull trend for now. As spooz go down of course the ZB is in an uptrend...no one cares about inflation I have said that over and over on here. Many times I have warned not to be short ZB unless your risk tolerance is high. That is how this whole thread was started almost a year ago as stocks started their plummet.
Real slowing fears should keep lifting Treasury prices:
The Treasury market continues to have a slight upward bias off a combination of a growing list of slowing evidence and quasi deflationary conditions that were evident months ago to the inteligent and astute Trader.
While some economists think that stagflation is a possible outcome of the current condition, my influencial coleagues and I think that the near term conditons will more than likely favor the deflationary tilt or outcome.
In fact, while the debate on whether there will be a recession has clearly settled into the market in favor of the Bull Camp in Treasuries, there will seem to be plenty of room for the market to play up the magnitude and the length of the coming recession.
In addition to Wall Street Journal articles on rising office vacancy rates, and other clues, the market also saw initial claims figures rise to the highest level since just after the 9/11 incident. It goes without saying that the scheduled US numbers will add to the recession concerns, with the Non Farm Payrolls loss above what was expected by most of my influential coleagues and highly reliable sources.
As we suspected that the hard down action in the equity market in the prior trading session was simply a message to the House that the bailout plan is not really what the marketplace is looking at. Certainly the stock market has reacted in a temporary lift in prices, but as usual Congress and the Washington machine have watered down the potential psychological benefit ( that is what my Congress and bond market sources inform me) and that means that the weak state of the economy will be quick to grab the limelight away from the "package".
In our opinion, the political debate over the " plan " , the Presidential race and concerns of the banking crisis spreading overseas has not given the evidence of US slowing as much significance and therefore we have to conclude that Treasury prices still have the capacity to claw their way back up toward higher prices.
However the Treasury market will have to weather at least a temporary negative wave in the face of the bailout package, especially if pork barrel politics were to add even more spending to the House version of the Plan.
However, there should be a bit of two sided volatility next week that will suggest that buyers will be willing to add to long plays
on any decline back below 118-00 in December Bonds and on pullbacks below 115-00 in Dec Notes.
Conspiracy theorists might suggest that the numbers that were as bad as expectations are going to be revised sharply higher next month.
While a number of press outlets and some economists are predicting a series of rate cuts next year, some noted Fed watchers think that the Fed is going to hold off on cutting rates in the near term until the smoke clears in Washington.
In fact the Fed was hoping that the bailout move would serve to hold the market up ( wishfull thinking ) so that the first Fed official rate cut move can be reserved for later in the coming weeks.
However as the House Plan passed and the stock market came under selling pressure and if it continues next week ( probably will gap down on Sunday to Monday ) the Fed could be forced to act well ahead of the end of October meeting.
Typically the S&P doesn't seem to bottom off a consolidation pattern and that would suggest that the market might have another big range down washout, huge volume spike move ahead.
In fact, until the S&P sees a Net Spec Short position in excess of 20,000 contracts we doubt that the downside has been exhausted.
total chaos! Bond futures down 3 handles, spooz 80 handle range bought 975 at the open this $hit is insane the 5 and 10 yr cash has been a tick wide at times!
Quote from invertedCurve:
yeah I saw it talked about on an industry letter today. That ride down was rough also 5 ticks down 4 ticks up all the way down, glad I was green! I thought last month was volatile these markets today are too much, I want it to go back to a month ago.
InvertedCurve,
What was the name of that industry letter?
Thanks,
its all the extra supply from the added rate auctions