Anybody else short US 30 Bond

Quote from bali_survivor:

Cannot believe all this talk about funnymentals. All one has to know is if you are in a trend and if the move is a reversal or a retracement.

And in a parabolic market is it very dangerous to get into the game a) late and b) against the trend.

Remember Google and all those people saying at 200 that it could not go any higher so they started to short it?

TA rules!

Maria
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I love how even the most ill-concieved thead can turn into a scintillating conversation amongst traders, all we're missing are the Buds!

To youngtrader and invertedcurve[/b], young, I'm one of your biggest fans, so I wasn't pointing anything at you, just stating that, for any chart you can pull-up, the information is already there on what action should be taken to make a successful (read: profitable) trade.

invertedcurve, I agree that it's great to have the knowledge you're sharing with us ... but it ins't necessary to be profitable.

To the OP, you still think this was a good idea? :confused:
 

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Quote from MandelbrotSet:
To the OP, you still think this was a good idea? :confused:
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It seemed like a good idea at the time!

Well we broke 3.3% on the TY earlier.
Maybe 3% is the magic number, crazy stuff.
 
I f%*king shorted 122.21 this afternoon took em off at 122.13 and watched them go to the 119 handle after the pit closed and the Ambac sort of bail out came out and the Spooz rallied from a morning low of 1261 to a 3:30pm high of 1351 that is some crazy $hit! Almost 70 BILLION ten years (CASH-which the futures follow)were traded today with over 4 million spooz, the high I think has been put in for a while, the Two Year was trading at 1.85% that is crazy now it is back over 2%. Oh and I caught some daggers which were painful on the way down the bond was taking out 5 ticks a clip once it dropped 12 in one two minute candlestick!
 
Im also getting some sell signals and will be looking to get short the 10-year tomorrow. From what I can tell we are in for a pop in the es to around 1375-1400. From there headed back lower but I agree a top is in the treasuries........at least for now.

YT
 
Quote from youngtrader:

Im also getting some sell signals and will be looking to get short the 10-year tomorrow. From what I can tell we are in for a pop in the es to around 1375-1400. From there headed back lower but I agree a top is in the treasuries........at least for now.

YT
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Hmmm, not so quickly here. Markets do not change overnight in direction, too much sentiment involved. The longer the timeframe, the less common V-type reversals are.

It is more likely to see some more of these good old one day up, next day down, and very long, bars as there are a number of trading systems that are completely out of whack with these large ranges: they have never been included in the design of those systems.

As the motto goes: trade what you see, not what you think.

Maria
 
Quote from bali_survivor:

Hmmm, not so quickly here. Markets do not change overnight in direction, too much sentiment involved. The longer the timeframe, the less common V-type reversals are.

It is more likely to see some more of these good old one day up, next day down, and very long, bars as there are a number of trading systems that are completely out of whack with these large ranges: they have never been included in the design of those systems.

As the motto goes: trade what you see, not what you think.

Maria
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Maria

Agreed but don't you think we have at least an intermediate term top in? I mean look at the 10-year.....biggest one day volume this month with a massive range that closed just about where it opened. Looks to me like a decline is on the way. I know seasonally treasuries tend to weaken in feb-march.

Also taking a look at a weekly es chart I think we are at least headed up to test 1385 rather quickly before heading back lower.

On the other hand this thing could just keep blowing up.

I have resistance at 118 (im not ready to call it support) and 121. I have support at 115. Do you have any numbers that are different?

YT
 
Quote from invertedCurve:

I f%*king shorted 122.21 this afternoon took em off at 122.13 and watched them go to the 119 handle after the pit closed and the Ambac sort of bail out came out and the Spooz rallied from a morning low of 1261 to a 3:30pm high of 1351 that is some crazy $hit!
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Don't feel so bad, after taking 28 ticks of heat in the rectum from 122 to 122 '28, I decided to cover @ 121 1/2, I made a nice days' pay after re-shorting much lower, but am still pi$$ed I covered so prematurely. I also agree today's price action signifies a top has been put in. That is the biggest range I have ever seen in my 7 years trading the bondo.

I wonder if Richard_M is still in the game?
He does get credit for getting a decent thread going.

good trading,

surdo
 
Reminds me of a "former" co-worker that was always floating-trial-balloons, that is, until it back-fired.

Hmmm, there is always that, but what would be the point? [/QUOTE]
 
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