Anybody else short US 30 Bond

Im seeing topping action in eurex fixed income (especially the bund). If we can break through 116 I think we could start to trade drastically lower!

I wish I knew a little more about yield curve fundamentals and that kind of stuff but I don't lol so thats all I can give ya!

YT
 
Quote from youngtrader:

Im seeing topping action in eurex fixed income (especially the bund). If we can break through 116 I think we could start to trade drastically lower!

I wish I knew a little more about yield curve fundamentals and that kind of stuff but I don't lol so thats all I can give ya!

YT
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You don't neeed to know anything about the yield curve when trading the notes, or the political/energy climate when trading oil, or the state of governmental affairs and big business when trading the financials, or financial instability when trading gold ... just trade the technicals, price action doesn't lie, make excuses or equivocate.
 
I will probably get "not long" the June 30 year on Tuesday. Eithers Put back spreads or write OOM vertical call spreads.
 
Quote from MandelbrotSet:

You don't neeed to know anything about the yield curve when trading the notes, or the political/energy climate when trading oil, or the state of governmental affairs and big business when trading the financials, or financial instability when trading gold ... just trade the technicals, price action doesn't lie, make excuses or equivocate.
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Since the TY is an integral part of the curve and people are spreading it against all parts of the curve how can you say this? And when I say people I mean major paper...A fundamental understanding of where money is flowing is important as well - and this is coming from a trader who uses technicals as a base to enter any trade. So if Ambac defaults is has no bearing to the Fixed Income market come on! The spooz are down 60 bucks right now that is huge for the whole curve. If you can see the curve is steepening or flattening it shows you where REAL money is moving the market which in itself is a form of technical analysis combined with a fundamental approach. So I see your point but you can not throw fundamental analysis out the window totally.
 
Quote from invertedCurve:

Since the TY is an integral part of the curve and people are spreading it against all parts of the curve how can you say this? And when I say people I mean major paper...A fundamental understanding of where money is flowing is important as well - and this is coming from a trader who uses technicals as a base to enter any trade. So if Ambac defaults is has no bearing to the Fixed Income market come on! The spooz are down 60 bucks right now that is huge for the whole curve. If you can see the curve is steepening or flattening it shows you where REAL money is moving the market which in itself is a form of technical analysis combined with a fundamental approach. So I see your point but you can not throw fundamental analysis out the window totally.
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InvertedCurve

I agree with you completely (I believe that post was aimed towards me). I come from a physical commodity background so I no next to nothing about the treasuries (besides the very basic stuff).

With a handle like that I think you are the right person to ask this next question to.

Why is the 2yr/10yr spread taking a dive? I mean after today's close we have a 20% chance of a 100 bps cut and that spread looks like its falling off a cliff? I just don't get it. All the fundamentals line up for that to steepen right? I myself am looking to buy that spread but I don't want to catch a falling knife!

Any info would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks
 
I did not go in today but will go in very early in the morning and check shit out! The whole economy right now is chasing the dragon, you got people planting corn to make Ethanol not realizing that if Ethanol could make gas go from 3.50 a gallon to 1.50 it would be worth it but it does not do that. What it does do is supplant beans and wheat and make parcels of land unusable to grow anything as corn takes a lot moisture out of the land so we have food inflation of 30-40% last year! The wheat and beans feeds the livestock so commodities are exploding. The same thing is happening with bets placed on the curve there is so much rumor and fed speak Bumbling Ben better get it together, every time there is a half point move in the curve paper is readjusting their positions so watch out I don't think it's a bad play to go long the 2/10 but it was better to go long when it was under 100 basis points,you have to wait for the extreme moves which happen sometimes on a daily basis. The reason why it is flattening is that paper are taking off steepeners which had made a lot money the past month (look at the 2/30) when you see shift in the monthly chart maybe that could be clue for you but right now I would not hold positions in any market unless you are in a huge winner. Right now the market is trading on emotions and chaos so be careful and get out of losers fast but ride winners like a dirty Vegas coke whore!
P.S. Emergency Fed Cut could be mayhem!
 
Cannot believe all this talk about funnymentals. All one has to know is if you are in a trend and if the move is a reversal or a retracement.

And in a parabolic market is it very dangerous to get into the game a) late and b) against the trend.

Remember Google and all those people saying at 200 that it could not go any higher so they started to short it?

TA rules!

Maria
 
I love TA that is what I use on ALL OF MY trades, consider myself a technician. just trying to say that fundamentals are important for a MACRO view! 120.17 is a much better trade than sitting in a 7 handle loser, considering what a bounce the equities might have in the morning!
LOL!
 
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