I'm short now.
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Anybody else short US 30 Bond
- Thread starter richard_m
- Start date
Quote from richard_m:
The key phrase in your comment is "everyone". So you think the Fed is going to keep cutting when real inflation is sky high. Are your groceries any cheaper? Maybe the coffee you are buying is a full pound. Or the bleach is a real gallon. My wife is paying 30-40% for both food and energy. Oh yeah, let's not count that.
Obviously I don't trade based on fundamentals.
I at first didn't think they'd cut with oil in the 90s, and lo and behold, look at what they did. The fed has other central banks on their side, and the freedom to cut rates. Housing problems are not going to go away any time soon, so cash is going to continue pouring into risk free assets.
They are sacrificing the dollar to preserve asset prices and the employment status quo. I don't agree with it either, but thats whats happening.
Additionally, the dollar selloff accompanied by bonds going up is not a good sign for a bond short. That doesn't spell a fear of holding US denominated assets.
Look at the dollar/bond correlation and you'll see its been inverse ever since the dollar's tanking accelerated. I recommend you acknowledge the 'inflation' concept while sounding good, is not contributing at all to driving bonds south. In fact, more money supply and a need for increased cash reserves on banks means more demand for risk free assets *domestically*.
And this says nothing of the yield curve, which looks way too healthy considering we haven't even formally hit recession yet.
Exactly what the consensus thinks.
Quote from scriabinop23:
I at first didn't think they'd cut with oil in the 90s, and lo and behold, look at what they did. The fed has other central banks on their side, and the freedom to cut rates. Housing problems are not going to go away any time soon, so cash is going to continue pouring into risk free assets.
They are sacrificing the dollar to preserve asset prices and the employment status quo. I don't agree with it either, but thats whats happening.
Additionally, the dollar selloff accompanied by bonds going up is not a good sign for a bond short. That doesn't spell a fear of holding US denominated assets.
Look at the dollar/bond correlation and you'll see its been inverse ever since the dollar's tanking accelerated. I recommend you acknowledge the 'inflation' concept while sounding good, is not contributing at all to driving bonds south. In fact, more money supply and a need for increased cash reserves on banks means more demand for risk free assets *domestically*.
And this says nothing of the yield curve, which looks way too healthy considering we haven't even formally hit recession yet.
that's true Richard, it is all relative but if you are short lets say 20 from 113.26 then right now you are 80 grand in the hole just not understanding why you take a stand down there when you could have gotten out and put it back on with the TY yield under 4% at a much better price? And who knows what will happen with non fun/un-enjoyment on Friday.
Well, I guess I have never been able to be so sure about things happening the way I would like them. I envy you being able to do that.
I almost always put on my max position at the beginning of the cycle. It works better for me. There are many time when I try to out guess my methodology, but I don't do it anymore. Right now, I have a down cycle. I agree it is a lot of heat and I would rather it not happen this way, but I do not trade the same way as you guys.
Frankly, I don't understand how everyone can make so many comments about what I should be doing from a risk perspective when they have no idea how this trade relates to total fund. However, I started this thing and I want to see it through.
Surdo is just pissed because I am a much better fisherman then him, I don't take it personally or anything.
By the way, bonds are going down and will not be back at this level for many years.
I almost always put on my max position at the beginning of the cycle. It works better for me. There are many time when I try to out guess my methodology, but I don't do it anymore. Right now, I have a down cycle. I agree it is a lot of heat and I would rather it not happen this way, but I do not trade the same way as you guys.
Frankly, I don't understand how everyone can make so many comments about what I should be doing from a risk perspective when they have no idea how this trade relates to total fund. However, I started this thing and I want to see it through.
Surdo is just pissed because I am a much better fisherman then him, I don't take it personally or anything.
By the way, bonds are going down and will not be back at this level for many years.
Quote from invertedCurve:
that's true Richard, it is all relative but if you are short lets say 20 from 113.26 then right now you are 80 grand in the hole just not understanding why you take a stand down there when you could have gotten out and put it back on with the TY yield under 4% at a much better price? And who knows what will happen with non fun/un-enjoyment on Friday.