Anybody else short US 30 Bond

Quote from jasonjm:

massive stock market tank and recession fears confirmed

but ZB can only move up 1 point

this thing is getting very top heavy imo

I cant tell you where the top is, but I think it will reverse heavily to the downside at some point soon
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Agreed

A 1 point move in ZB is a pretty weak considering the situation we are in now.

The top has got to be in.......for a while. Merrill selling 14K 109-120 june call spreads at 640 area in the 10yr options pit. Thats a massive payday if it works for them!!!

ZB up 10 as of right now but the stock market continues to gain strength this morning so my bias is lower trade for the treasuries.

Im short mar 114/118 strangles at .53 in the 10yr and short mar 118 calls at .35 in the 10yr.

YT
 
Quote from jasonjm:

nothing like being massively short ZB from 120 on a day like this

loving life today
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now is the perfect time to get long some ZB calls and be long the stock market. [just bought an apr08 120 call for 54/64]

the strong dollar action i think confirms the fact that bonds are still worth buying without fear of yields going into the stratosphere.

happy you managed to short again!!!
 
I would be careful buying any calls here. Majority of big players are buying puts and selling calls. Also most are short volatility (im only talking about 10yr option players in the pit).

This market looks extremely weak. The only chance I see of us running up to our previous highs would be if shorts start to get bored and cover. Other than that I think we will continue to grind lower.


YT
 
this ZB is acting all fu$cked with the change in the CTD cash contract twitching all over...
CTD= Cheapest to deliver issue
The acceptable Treasury security with the highest implied repo rate; the rate that a seller of a futures contract can earn by buying an issue and then delivering it at the settlement date.
 
Any thoughts here?

We can at safely say that treasuries have put in at least a short term top and are now just chopping around waiting for direction (duh lol). I believe the next move is lower and I think it will be lead by the front end of the curve. Im not exactly sure why but my gut says the front end is going to lead treasuries lower.

All of the cash auctions have been terrible with big supply and few takers. Yields are at record lows and imo people would rather take a stab at the stock market or some other form of investment (real estate) than get the measly yield of the treasury market at this time.

Take a look at march eurodollar futures. THE TOP IS IN THAT MARKET!!!

As far as option trades go its been mostly mixed with selling of puts and calls along with short strangles. From what they have done so far it looks as if they are expecting a range in the 10yr from 114-118 from now until June.


YT
 
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