Anybody else short US 30 Bond

Quote from polarcyclone:

the fed won't let these things fall too far, although a retrace to mid 120s is possible..
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You mean like the PPT wouldn't let stocks fall too far? The size of the bond market is such that if enough people start running for the exits even the Fed won't be able to prop up the price.

And from the looks of it, the long side of the bond trade has gotten pretty crowded near the top with amateurs, which always signals a major turnaround is close by.
 
Quote from zboy2854A:

You mean like the PPT wouldn't let stocks fall too far? The size of the bond market is such that if enough people start running for the exits even the Fed won't be able to prop up the price.

And from the looks of it, the long side of the bond trade has gotten pretty crowded near the top with amateurs, which always signals a major turnaround is close by.
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Anyway, last I checked Fannie mae spreads were still gigantic..

http://www.efanniemae.com/syndicated/documents/mbs/apeprices//archives/cur30.html

The Friday yield was something like 3.11 on the 30 yr. So thats around 185 basis points spread. Isn't the whole point to make mortgages affordable. I expect the fed to bring that spread back to 50-60bp. (thus the baseline mortgage rate under 4) I thought spread would move rather than the 30yr yield (which has no impact other than to make it easy for the fed govt to raise money on the cheap).
 
Quote from BondTrader50:

Nope. They won't

Buy Dips
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I'd be careful. I don't think any dips from this point are buyable until probably next summer. But that's just my opinion.
 
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