War's loose ends
Iraq is not yet as free as Bush claims
George Bush last night effectively declared an end to a war in Iraq that most people in the Middle East and the world beyond believe should not have been started in the first place. The full consequences of the conflict begun in earnest on March 19 are as numerous as they are still uncertain, not least for Iraqis. Historians will have much to ponder. But a number of outstanding issues are worthy of note right now. One is that the same, deep legal ambiguities that overshadowed the war's onset also qualified Mr Bush's virtual victory statement, ostentatiously yet fittingly proclaimed at sea somewhere off California.
By having the president refer only to the completion of "major combat operations", the US hopes to avoid incurring the full legal obligations of a post-war occupying power. Apart from imposing duties and standards for the protection and fair treatment of civilians (not currently being observed in Falluja), application of the Geneva conventions would also oblige the US to release all prisoners of war "without delay". This it is loath to do. And this is but the latest example of the way the US and Britain have sought to reshape, or ignore, international law in the course of the crisis. Their principal offence was to demand UN backing and, when it was withheld, press ahead regardless. By acting pre-emptively in the absence of aggression or a pressing, agreed Iraqi threat, they set a precedent with destabilising implications for how states may behave in future disputes.
Whether Mr Bush and Tony Blair fully understand, even now, the broader institutional and geostrategic consequences of their actions is another question of more than academic historical interest. In short order, the US-British axis exposed to dismaying view the pre-existing flaws of the security council system. From this humiliation, it is possible the UN will not recover. Between them, Mr Bush and Mr Blair split the EU down the middle, transforming long-standing French mutterings about US hegemony into a fully-fledged anti-American rebellion, turning east against west, "old" Europe against "new", and indirectly assuring Gerhard Schröder's re-election.
Their policy wrought chaos in Nato, pulverised relations with key players like Russia and Turkey, and even alienated America's closest neighbours, Canada and Mexico. While claiming to advance Arab-Israeli peacemaking, they actually delayed it, infuriating the Muslim world, undermining "war on terror" priorities and almost daring al-Qaida to hit back. They played good cop-bad cop with Syria and Iran, goaded North Korea to a reckless nuclear brink, and meanwhile forgot all about Afghanistan, let alone the starving of Africa. And all for the sake of Saddam. The explosive effect of the Iraq obsession has been so great that the picking up of pieces is only just beginning. It could take years. It may never succeed. From these blitzed buildings, in fact, the architecture of a very different world order may emerge. That of course is exactly the aim of Bush administration ideologues. For Europeans and others, that is the big challenge of the post-war era.
Was it really all worth it? Mr Bush and Mr Blair seem to have no doubts even though both Saddam and his weapons remain embarrassingly elusive. Many others will reply with a blunt no. But perhaps the question should properly be addressed in the first instance to surviving Iraqis whom the US president, with unconvincing altruism, vowed to liberate. A free Iraq would certainly be a laudable achievement. The trouble is, for all Mr Bush's jolly nautical self-congratulation, it has not happened yet.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,947771,00.html