Anatomy Of A Bear
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
You got it right! Close enough is good enough. Congrats!
PS: shortie reads RFT's blog. Smart/profitable people read RFT's blog!
This is analogous to 1968, when there were multiple currency crises.
It started in 1967, with a run on the pound, continued into 1968, with a dollar crisis that led to the breakup of the London Gold Pool, and finished in the fall with a crisis in the franc. Like today's crisis, it was international, centered in the US and secondarily in the UK. In 1968, it wound up affecting the French just as badly, even though they had hoarded gold in an attempt to make the franc the international standard currency.
The analogy today is that everyone was looking for the USD to tank, while expecting the euro to do well. Since the middle of this year, the euro has been falling, as Trichet has finally been forced to face up to the reality of the actual, real world economy, rather than the fantasy land he's been inhabiting for the past year as this crisis has unfolded.
That year, the S&P bottomed in March and rallied hard into December. As we have yet to get a good rally, we're due.
After that, it fell to a lower low, in 1970, and then rallied to a higher high by 1973. After that came the real bear.
So, the one thing you can expect is volatility. Lots of it.
It started in 1967, with a run on the pound, continued into 1968, with a dollar crisis that led to the breakup of the London Gold Pool, and finished in the fall with a crisis in the franc. Like today's crisis, it was international, centered in the US and secondarily in the UK. In 1968, it wound up affecting the French just as badly, even though they had hoarded gold in an attempt to make the franc the international standard currency.
The analogy today is that everyone was looking for the USD to tank, while expecting the euro to do well. Since the middle of this year, the euro has been falling, as Trichet has finally been forced to face up to the reality of the actual, real world economy, rather than the fantasy land he's been inhabiting for the past year as this crisis has unfolded.
That year, the S&P bottomed in March and rallied hard into December. As we have yet to get a good rally, we're due.
After that, it fell to a lower low, in 1970, and then rallied to a higher high by 1973. After that came the real bear.
So, the one thing you can expect is volatility. Lots of it.
getting a solid bounce in the futures. we could recover all of today's losses tomorrow