Anatomy Of A Bear

Where Are We In Bear Cycle? (See Chart)

  • Early Bear

    Votes: 26 24.3%

  • Middle Bear

    Votes: 36 33.6%

  • Late Bear

    Votes: 18 16.8%

  • Early Bull

    Votes: 5 4.7%

  • Uncharted Territory

    Votes: 22 20.6%
  • Total voters
    107
S

shortie

while each bear market is unique, they probably share some common characteristics. here i am trying to match the current bear to that of 2000-02. 2000-02 bear slide was punctuated by 4 local bottoms that lead to +22-26% bear rallies and the final bottom in 2003 (the early bull bottom).
taking 2000-02 bear as a ruler where are we in the bear cycle? judging by time we are somewhere between early and middle bear. but judging by % drop from the top were are around late bear (46% drop now versus 50% drop in 2000-02).

so, where are we?
 
2000-02 Bear:

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if we assume that this leg-up should be similar to the bear market rallies in 2000-02 (22-26%), we get 102-105 as the target area. So far we fell a bit short of the target, so we may revisit the area soon. I think we ran up too fast too soon.

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maybe i am reading too much into this, but i see some similarity between now and july-2002 (see the charts).

after jul-02 bottom, the market went up very sharply (too fast too soon) and sold off hard (3 large red bars). we have two large red bars yesterday+today. i think we should be getting ready for a nice move up that could last a couple of weeks.

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Early bear is where we are at, this is a bear market that will extend well beyond the means of any other bear market this economy and country has ever faced. This is alot worse than any recession we have ever been through and I can actually say it will be as bad or even worse than the depression we had 7 decades ago.

This is what happens when you create a false impression of economic sucess.
 
we have to make a lower low for sure...that will probably not take long to happen. this could get really ugly!
 
I voted uncharted territory because I think we might be in for Nikkei-like action. What do you call that - secular bear market or just sideways action?
 
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