Anatomy Of A Bear

[bbqbbq]

I don't think you should look at the drop of the DOW of 2001-2003, but at the drop of the NASDAQ. After all it was a tech bubble. The credit bubble however, has more to do with the DOW now. So expect the DOW to do what the NASDAQ did back then.

 

[AMT4SWA]

I voted unchartered territory.......enjoy the RIDE! :eek:


Globalist wealth entitites have NEVER played CRAPS on this grand of a scale before......it seems they are in over their heads on this one. :eek:

 

[ess1096]

Rather than compare this market & economy to the 2000 bear market you should compare it to 1929.
Just google "1929 crash" and read the history. You will see so many similarities such as a credit bubble burst, a market that hit new highs as real estate prices were spiraling down and a government that did more harm than good as it tried to "help".

The 1929 stock market crash did not cause the depression. The upcoming depression caused the stock market crash. It's a road that looks a lot like the one we are on now.

Know your history, make money in ANY market.

 

[Port1385]

These are some charts from the "ball" site. This is the start of the great bear. Remember that the SPX was at 32 and then went to 5 during the depression. If oil goes below 55 then we are f*cked. No recovery until 2020.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from shortie:

while each bear market is unique, they probably share some common characteristics. here i am trying to match the current bear to that of 2000-02. 2000-02 bear slide was punctuated by 4 local bottoms that lead to +22-26% bear rallies and the final bottom in 2003 (the early bull bottom).
taking 2000-02 bear as a ruler where are we in the bear cycle? judging by time we are somewhere between early and middle bear. but judging by % drop from the top were are around late bear (46% drop now versus 50% drop in 2000-02).

so, where are we?

======================
Shortie;
a]Think your comparisons of time are probably right;
but agree with the trader who figures its more like Nasdaqqq 2000 bear, about 80% drop. Not a prediction

b]I dont think you can honestly blame any 1 party or 1 politician;
but raising taxes/tariffs, helped the 1929 bear/downtrend.[Hurt the bulls]

c]I am optimistic,& rode the POT sector when it laughed off bad news in its uptrend;
but like trends {SPY,DIA, QQQQ are bearish downtrends]also.To be bullish anywhere near here would be assuming the war on terror will go as good as it has.

Also the bulls would have to assume weather, war,food & fuel roller coaster is over.Those 4 trends alone are much more of a threat than in 2000.

Of course part of the good news is global warming is not really a threat;
thats why they changed the name to ''climate change'',LOL

 

[jd7419]

Just looking at the weely spx chart it looks so obvious the market will break lower and take out the 2002 lows. It's really just a perfect short which makes me think the low might happen any day now. Really the only bullish person on this site the last few days has been stockturder and he doesn't count. Also the tone of the cnbc reporters has taken on alot of despair. IMHO the next big move +(20-30%) will be on the upside though I don't think it will be the start of a new bull, just a large rally in the context of a secular bear which started in 2000. This rally will suck in more suckers and eventually fail.

 

[QQQBALL]

Quote from new$:

To me it looks like 1969-1985 w/o manufacturing ability.

nice post... i was thinking about that. alot of us just trade services with others. if we cant sell cars or airliners, and ship bldg is mostly off-shore, then is tech the leading industry?

 

[stock_trad3r]

The GDP contracted a whole 3/10%. Hardly a crisis.

 

[swtrader]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

the bottom def. looks like it's made

much higher from here

there's nothing wrong with attempting to make a contrarion bull case, but you're just a fucking retard - your not adding anything, your just making pin head knee jerk statements

 

[new$]

Quote from QQQBALL:

nice post... i was thinking about that. alot of us just trade services with others. if we cant sell cars or airliners, and ship bldg is mostly off-shore, then is tech the leading industry?

It’s why I picked “uncharted”. We had the manufacturing strength before that guaranteed bottom up recoveries. This bunch hovers the helicopter over GS and we are assuming that it will trickle down to granny and be multiplied - uncharted. The New Deal was successful because it applied the money to the people in need and they multiplied it up to the banks.
To me it looks like the profitability of 90’s tech was computers and they have become commodities made in China, save Intel. I bought a HP notebook at their site about four years ago and it came online with FedEx tracking at Shanghai. Asus ,Msi and Acer etc. make nice stuff. Tech maybe our leading industry but the manufacturing profits will go to China.