Amzn

Quote from michaelscott:

A lot of you guys are still thinking post-tech bubble and have these fantasies of P/E contraction. Now the P/Es are expanding once more and the 50's era method of valuation is being thrown into the waste basket. Amazon is a company that can execute and so it is rightfully rewarded with generous P/Es. Those companies that cant execute, small cap crap, are rewarded with these obnoxiously low P/Es.

We are now at a time once more where its time to throw out the old methods of valuation and to reconsider the way we look at stocks. Amazon will go to 100 in the weeks to come. You can buy your puts or short the stock, but you will only lose money and your pride.

In the new economy, Amazon is rightfully valued and for those who wish to fade or disbelieve will get run over by the train. Now lets all give a hand to Amazon one hundy!!!

i hope this is just sarcasm.
 
You have to look at the writing on the wall. Most of you guys were so bearish when the market fell in February stating the correction is finally here. Thats when the Russell 3000 was at 800. Now its at 884, the entire market 10% higher!

You guys are the old economy, the days of the small crap, the days of the range trade. Now the markets are moving higher and your pride and ego is hitting you now. You thought you could range trade IBM forever and ride up the small crap. Now the small crap is being thrown in the waste basket and large cap growth is back. You wonder how and why this could be.

Its 2007, not 2006, not 2005 or 2004. Its time for a new attitude.
 
I love Wikepedia!

It's Michael Scott all over again!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_economy

New Economy was a term coined in late 1990s by pundits to describe what some thought was an evolution of the United States and other developed countries from an industrial/manufacturing-based wealth producing economy into a service sector asset based economy from globalisation and currency manipulation by governnments and their central banks. At the time, some analysts claimed that this change in the economic structure of the United States had created a state of permanent steady growth, low unemployment, and immunity to boom-and-bust macroeconomic cycles. Furthermore, they believed that the change rendered obsolete many business practices. When the stock market bubble burst, analysts soon realized they had been wrong. While many of the more exuberant predictions proved to be wrong, some pundits continue to use the term New Economy to describe contemporary developments in business and the economy.

In the financial markets, the term has been associated with the Dot-com boom. This included the emergence of the NASDAQ as a rival to the New York Stock Exchange, a high rate of IPOs, the rise of Dot-com stocks over established firms, and the prevalent use of such tools as stock options. In the wider economy the term has been associated with practices such as outsourcing, business process outsourcing and business process re-engineering.

The general idea is that a business should focus on those areas of its operation which are critical to its success and where it has a competitive advantage. Other areas of its operation should be outsourced, typically using technology as the facilitator. In a developed economy, the critical success factors to a leading business are likely to be intellectual things such as brands, products specifications and technical capabilities. Many routine business functions (such as manufacturing and customer service desks) may be outsourced.
 
Quote from michaelscott:

You have to look at the writing on the wall. Most of you guys were so bearish when the market fell in February stating the correction is finally here. Thats when the Russell 3000 was at 800. Now its at 884, the entire market 10% higher!

You guys are the old economy, the days of the small crap, the days of the range trade. Now the markets are moving higher and your pride and ego is hitting you now. You thought you could range trade IBM forever and ride up the small crap. Now the small crap is being thrown in the waste basket and large cap growth is back. You wonder how and why this could be.

Its 2007, not 2006, not 2005 or 2004. Its time for a new attitude.

I wasn't bearish; I was buying with all fists and hands. So the ET sentiment means little. AAPL, GOOG, and others were not overvalued. AMZN is. (And now I believe AAPL is ahead of itself, and GOOG is the only one left undervalued)

And the range trade has nothing to do with it; obviously this is a bull market and we are breaking out. But don't get ahead of yourself and think fundamentals don't matter. You either use FA or you don't, and by ANY typical standards, AMZN's FA results do not intersect with the stock price. So

I read every word of that last earnings transcript, and no where did I see 70% growth projections, margin expansion, or anything meaningful to correlate to the price action we've seen.

This price action is a tell -- the buyers have been in control. Nothing to do with fundamentals of the underlying business.

You are trading the ticker AMZN right now, completely dissassociated from the underlying actual company named Amazon which is supposedly attached to that name.

If AMZN management is sharp, they'll use this vast discrepancy in stock price to company value and sell a batch or three of many million shares here, diluting the float.

They could use that cash position to 'invest' in the Shanghai market and then provide *real* earnings leverage for their shareholders.

:) (that's sarcasm, in case you don't get it)
 
Quote from michaelscott:

You have to look at the writing on the wall. Most of you guys were so bearish when the market fell in February stating the correction is finally here. Thats when the Russell 3000 was at 800. Now its at 884, the entire market 10% higher!

You guys are the old economy, the days of the small crap, the days of the range trade. Now the markets are moving higher and your pride and ego is hitting you now. You thought you could range trade IBM forever and ride up the small crap. Now the small crap is being thrown in the waste basket and large cap growth is back. You wonder how and why this could be.

Its 2007, not 2006, not 2005 or 2004. Its time for a new attitude.


I didn't even realize.. We have a fictional celebrity:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Scott_(The_Office)
 
Bought some July puts today because I'm too chicken to short it.

Sold them at the close because i'm afraid they can run it up again any day of the week.
 
Here are the fundamentals behind Amazon.

Online shopping is making a comeback because the USA is going into a slump. Salaries are at the same point or less then they were 7 years ago, unemployment is increasing, and housing values are going down while rents just keep going up, gas is at around 3-4 dollars per gallon-who knows how high it will go, etc.

Everyone is having a hard time living from day to day as part of their work day is just spent paying for gasoline.

Therefore online shopping is making a comeback in a huge way. You dont have to pay any tax, its delivered right to your door (vs you having to drive your gas guzzler to Circuit City) and most of the stuff on Amazon is cheaper then at the stores.

Actually, Circuit City appears it might go out of business in the future and, if it doesnt, it will come close. Tweeter is already on the brink of bankruptcy.

Amazon is the perfect play because people still need and want goods. They still need tvs and electronics, but they are not willing to pay top dollar at Circuit City anymore. I say Amazon will get to 100-110 in the future at some point.
 
On the other side of the coin, I'd expect it to go at least below $50 when the silliness ends because they make so little profit per share.
 
Back
Top